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 Post subject: WHO 47% Ebola Solution
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:59 am 
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WHO has updated it's Ebola website to include headlines ahow that the virus is transmitted H2H, has a 2-21 incubation period, and 47% of cases survive.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/

The survival rate assumes that all hospitalized cases survive, which has no scientific basis.

CFR based on outcomes shows that less than 30% survive.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:08 am 
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WHO website links to page with CFRs for prior outbreaks which is based on outcomes (none of the cases are still hospitalized). The two outbreaks in the past with the largest number of deaths were in Zaire (currently the Democratic Republic of the Congo) and involved the Zaire clade, which is also causing the deaths in the current outbreak.

For 1976 the CFR (280 deaths) was 88%

For 1995 the CFR (254 deaths) was 82%

For 2014 the CFR based on outcomes is above 70% (not the 53% WHO claims)

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:12 am 
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The most recent data (through August 18) for Liberia indicates 164 cases are hospitalized (out of 964 cases).

http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liber ... 202014.pdf

Thus, there are 565 deaths out of 800 outcomes or a CFR of 70.6% (29.4% survive, not 47%).

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:19 am 
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The latest update by WHO

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_08_20_ebola/en/

For Guinea (through August 20), WHO lists 396 deaths out of 579 cases, so even if all hospitalized cases survive, the CFR would be 68.4% or 31.6% survival. Since all of the hospitalized cases won't survive, the Guinea CFR based on outcomes is also above 70% (survival below 30%).

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 3:27 pm 
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The Dread Factor: Why Ebola And 'Contagion' Scare Us So Much
by ROB STEIN
August 22, 2014 3:31 AM ET
AUDIO
http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlaye ... =342354189
The Ebola outbreak has set off an alarm around the world. Public health leaders say the intense concern is appropriate, given the unprecedented size of the outbreak and the deadliness of the virus.

But experts say the outbreak has also produced a lot of unfounded fears. Even just the word Ebola is kind of terrifying.

“ Uncontrollability, catastrophic potential, fatal consequences and involuntary exposure — these are the elements that kind of go together to make up what we call the dread factor.
- psychologist Paul Slovic at the University of Oregon

Why? Well, Hollywood has a lot to do with it.

Take, for instance, the 1995 movie Outbreak, with Dustin Hoffman and Donald Sutherland. "Try to remain calm. Many people are dying and are going to continue to die unless we find this monkey," the movie's trailer says, as it promises "the greatest medical crisis of all time."

Then more recently, Gwyneth Paltrow's character in Contagion spreads a deadly virus around the world in a few weeks.

"On day one, there were two people. And then four, and then 16. In three months, it's a billion! That's where we're headed," Jude Law's character says about the looming death toll in Contagion.

Sound familiar? Well, not really.

There are huge differences between those movies and what's happening right now with Ebola.

The big one is how Ebola spreads, says Stephen Morse, a virologist at Columbia University. "Luckily for us, unlike the movies, it does not spread like wildfire, and in fact does not even spread the way the flu does," he says. "It's not that easy to catch."

To transmit Ebola, it takes way more than a sneeze, or even a cough. You need direct contact with an infected person's bodily fluid, like their blood or vomit.

Another big difference is that there's absolutely no evidence the Ebola virus is mutating in a way that would suddenly make it go crazy — and start spreading like wildfire.

Kenyan health officials take the temperatures of passengers arriving at the Nairobi airport on Thursday. Kenya has no reported cases of Ebola, but it's a transportation hub and so is on alert.
Shots - Health News
A Virtual Outbreak Offers Hints Of Ebola's Future
"This just doesn't happen in real life," Morse says. "If it isn't that transmissible, that easily, then it's not suddenly going to acquire that ability and suddenly move across the entire globe the way the fictionalized outbreak has it doing," he says.

So our logical brains can easily understand all of those differences. But still, many of us are afraid of Ebola — and misinformed about it.

A new poll from Harvard School of Public Health shows fears and misconceptions about Ebola are widespread in this country. More than a quarter of people fear they or someone in their immediate family may catch Ebola. And two-thirds believe Ebola spreads "easily."

Why? Ebola outbreaks have all the ingredients for the "dread factor," says psychologist Paul Slovic.

"Uncontrollability, catastrophic potential, fatal consequences and involuntary exposure," Slovic says. "These are the elements that kind of go together to make up what we call the dread factor."

Slovic, of the University of Oregon, came up with the idea while trying to identify what scares us the most.

So how does Ebola score? "Ebola would be extreme on the dread factor."

That means Ebola is just the kind of thing that would make people overreact — big time — for instance, when someone who's infected steps off a plane somewhere unannounced.

This fear may spark counterproductive activities, Slovic says. People may want the sick transported out of the community or their activities restricted.

Now, no one is saying Ebola isn't a dangerous virus. We need to take it very seriously. But if people start to panic, it might trigger so much turmoil that it starts to take a toll of its own. It might also divert attention from the terrible human suffering already happening in West Africa — and the efforts to stop it.

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:56 pm 
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AUDIO
http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlaye ... =342652021
Doctor: Ebola Fatality Rate Running At 70 Percent
August 23, 2014 7:32 AM ET
Listen to the Story
Weekend Edition Saturday 4 min 28 sec
Playlist
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Dr. Gabriel Fitzpatrick has been treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone with Doctors Without Borders. He spoke with NPR's Scott Simon about what the news of two cured Americans means for his efforts.

http://www.npr.org/2014/08/23/342652020 ... 70-percent

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:25 am 
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In Macenta transit center in southwest Guinea near the Liberian border, MSF supported the ministry of health by transferring Ebola patients by ambulance for treatment in either Conakry or Guékédou and has handed it over completely to the ministry of health and the WHO. Patients are arriving from a wide area, including the region around Nzerekore.

Since March, MSF treatment centers in Guékédou have admitted 366 patients, of whom 169 were confirmed to have Ebola. Forty-seven patients have recovered and returned home.

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/ne ... ign=social

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:31 am 
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Sierra Leone

Between five and ten new patients are being admitted each day to MSF’s 80-bed Ebola treatment center in Kailahun, near the border with Guinea. There are currently 50 patients in the center.

MSF is building a 35-bed isolation center in Bo Town. Near the village of Gondama, MSF also runs a transit capacity center where people suspected to be infected with Ebola are isolated and then transferred for further care.

Meanwhile, almost 300 community health workers are running health promotion activities in the region to increase people’s knowledge about Ebola and infection prevention measures. MSF teams still hear of many dead in the communities, and of new communities being infected, although there are no concrete numbers available. MSF continues to prioritize this activity, and is increasing the number of health promotion staff.

In total, MSF treatment centers have admitted 294 patients, of whom 191 were confirmed to have Ebola. Of those, 47 people have recovered and returned home.

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/ne ... ign=social

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:08 pm 
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MSF case numbers since the outbreak began (as of 25th August)

Guinea: Admissions* - 803 | Confirmed - 344 | Recovered - 106

Sierra Leone: Admissions - 348 | Confirmed - 226 | Recovered - 64

Liberia: Admissions - 734 | Confirmed - 337 | Recovered - 74

Total: Admissions- 1,885 | Confirmed - 907 | Recovered - 244

* Admissions include all suspected, probable and confirmed cases.

http://www.msf.org.uk/ebola

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 7:00 am 
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The aid workers knew right away they had to get the woman away from her village. It would improve her chances of recovery, even though those chances hovered at only about 30 percent.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... rra-leone/

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