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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:45 am 
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gsgs wrote:
give a quote, who else says this


> L226I virtually assures a pandemic.

I just did

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:03 am 
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niman wrote:
gsgs wrote:
give a quote, who else says this


> L226I virtually assures a pandemic.

I just did

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04281 ... lonal.html

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:15 am 
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"recombinomics", that's not really someone else, is it ?

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:25 am 
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as you may find it strange that noone except you expresses concern
about L226I in public, I find it strange that noone expresses concern
about a possible H1N1 reassortment in public.
Even not the authors of the reassortment papers,(Kimble)
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showth ... p?t=203696

While this is one of the main topics in the labs and papers, it is not being talked about
in the press now, in the expert statements.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:53 pm 
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gsgs wrote:
as you may find it strange that noone except you expresses concern
about L226I in public, I find it strange that noone expresses concern
about a possible H1N1 reassortment in public.
Even not the authors of the reassortment papers,(Kimble)
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showth ... p?t=203696

While this is one of the main topics in the labs and papers, it is not being talked about
in the press now, in the expert statements.

I don't find it strange at all. Most know about RBD changes, especially position 226 and the CONFIRMATION of H2H just came out YESTERDAY

Media has a serious lag, and L226I is MUCH too much specific to expect comments anytime soon.

The story is in the sequence, which the media can't read,

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:59 pm 
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gsgs wrote:
does anyone else see it this way ? No google-news hits for "L226I".
You are so often concerned about such things (search recombinomics
for cause for concern) but it never materialized.

does HA react with other segments so some receptors are more "compatible"
with certain inner segments ??
H7 and H9 are among the most distant HA-pairs

what's your pandemic probability ? Did it not decline since
cases are going down ?

Cases going down?????

H7N9 cases are EXPLODING in China, including second case in Fujian province and cluster in Shandong.

You really need to look at the map and see the distribution, not the REPORTED number of confirmed cases

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8 ... bdee9261c0

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:48 pm 
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Dr. Niman is correct on this, I assume/suspect there is thousands upon thousands of cases from Beijing all the way down to Hong Kong or so. Most are probably mild and or just false throat swab negatives like we have seen in the Taiwan and some of the Shanghai cases. There is NO WAY there can be such a large geographic area of this disease without being H2H at least in some form. Whether that be in between limited and sustained. H2H is occuring in China. The gov't is covering it up and the WHO are in denial. From some of the info I am hearing from contacts from my professor the actual numbers are at least 10 to 50 times what the current official numbers are. IF this does not become a full blown pandemic within the next year, I will donate all my money to charity. You simply just cannot have this kind of geographic distribution without H2H. UNLESS they end up getting a ton and ton of positive birds here in all of these areas here real quick, this theory will be proven real quick. We might as well call it pdmH7N9/13 from hense forth.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:07 pm 
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On a side note Dr. Niman, do you think most of the cases thus far of older people are cause of they are more susceptible to the disease or just cause of small sample size?


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:18 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
gsgs wrote:
does anyone else see it this way ? No google-news hits for "L226I".
You are so often concerned about such things (search recombinomics
for cause for concern) but it never materialized.

does HA react with other segments so some receptors are more "compatible"
with certain inner segments ??
H7 and H9 are among the most distant HA-pairs

what's your pandemic probability ? Did it not decline since
cases are going down ?

Cases going down?????

H7N9 cases are EXPLODING in China, including second case in Fujian province and cluster in Shandong.

You really need to look at the map and see the distribution, not the REPORTED number of confirmed cases

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8 ... bdee9261c0

I listened to the H7N9 update on TWIV, which I assume is the source of your confusion. They think cases are in decline and the human cases come from chickens, so their listeners are VERY confused.

http://traffic.libsyn.com/twiv/TWiV230.mp3

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:21 pm 
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rymich13 wrote:
On a side note Dr. Niman, do you think most of the cases thus far of older people are cause of they are more susceptible to the disease or just cause of small sample size?

I think that older people don't handle new infections well, so they end up in the hospital where they are tested. Confirmed cases require testing, which has a VERY strong sample bias.

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