Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Classical GSGS (and mixin) analysis:
Use of negative data to claim positive data is an error (i.e. the black card is white routine).

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www.twitter.com/hniman

http://www.elpasotexas.gov/health/_docu ... #view=fitH
Reality check. As seen in the chart linked above, El Paso realies heavily on the rapid test, which is notoriously insensitive for the detection of H1N1 (CDC cites a sensitivity rate of 10%, which may be a high estimate). El Paso is adjacent to Juaraez, Mexico, who reported H3N2 as the dominant sub-clade for the 2010/2011 season and a peak in detection in December of 2010. That is reflected in the El Paso data which shows 354 January positives by rapid test (likely to be dominated by H3N2) and only 3 H1n1 positives (consistent with the data from Mexico). However, in February there was a dramatic shift, whith rapid test positives dropping to 276 and H1N1 increasing almost 10 fold to 26. Thus the ratio of H1N1 to rapid test also changed 10 fold, from 1% to almost 10% in February. That ratio was maintained in March, and this higher ratio was followed by the record P&I deaths (19 in week 14 and 24 in week 15). In April the ratio of H1N1 to rapid test rose to 25%, again signaling the dominance of H1N1 in El Paso at the same as the appearnce of the Chihuahua sub-clade in Juarez, just across the border from El Paso.

Thus, the testing in El Paso is VERY poor for the detection of H1N1 and you are taking the negative data as evidence that the record P&I deaths are not real or linked to H1N1.

Go back to the babble boards where someone might believe your nonsense.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

El Paso deaths fell to 5 in week 25, so did they change the definition again in your parallel universe?

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

another new record in week 26:
zero reported deaths in El Paso from P+I for the first week this year

whatever it was - it seems to be over

_________________
no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

Zero deaths in week 26 isn't a new record. Several years in the 15 year history for El Paso have zero deaths for week 26 (and most other years have 1 or 2).

So the link to the Juarez outbreak is just ANOTHER coincidence that created the excessive P&I deaths, or was it travel salesmen again?

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

One death in week 27.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

According to Galgiani, valley fever is an endemic fungal infection (coccidioidomycosis) that is caused by spores typically found in the soils of Tucson, Pinella and Maricopa County (Phoenix). The disease is not contagious and occurs when spores from the soil are inhaled. "Up to two-thirds of all infections occur in that 150-mile stretch of the interstate, and the total number of infections per year we estimate at 150,000," said Galgiani, an expert in infectious diseases. "This is important for residents and tourists alike. If you get pneumonia in this part of the country, the chance that it is due to valley fever is about one in three. That is true for any tourist who goes home and in the next month gets pneumonia."

San Joaquin and Central Valleys of California, Southern Arizona (particularly Phoenix and Tucson), Southern Nevada, Southern Utah, Southern New Mexico and Western Texas (especially around El Paso).
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Local hospitals were expecting an increase in a disease known as Valley Fever, a fungal pneumonia, because of the storm. The fungus thrives in the hot and arid Southwest and is found just a few feet beneath the earth's surface; it can be stirred up by construction, wind and other activity.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_i ... 4015138667
Cryptococcal infection may cause a pneumonia-like illness, with shortness of breath, coughing and fever.

Monday, March 7, 2011
Respiratory MRSA Confirmed
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- A
The infected person was staying at the Community Alternatives of El Paso County
A facility spokesperson told KRDO NEWSCHANNEL 13 that the building has been cleaned and is now operating normally. A spokesperson with the Department of Health said there is no public health concern.

Maricopa County and Pima County Coccidioidomycosis
An abrupt end to this autocorrelation relationship occurs near the the onset of the summer precipitation season

first rain in El Paso in early June (after the snow in early Feb.)
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

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_________________
no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

But only El Paso has the record number of pneumonia deaths at the same time as the H1N1 outbreak across the border in Juarez. You continue to post utter nonsense, aka whackadoodle.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

_________________
no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

2012 links



http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp

New York:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=New+York+City%2C+N%2EY%2E&mmwr_table=4A
Boston:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=Boston%2C+Mass%2E&mmwr_table=4A
Atlanta: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=Atlanta%2C+Ga%2E&mmwr_table=4A
El Paso: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=El+Paso%2C+Tex%2E&mmwr_table=4A



USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=TOTAL&mmwr_table=4A
New England: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=New+England&mmwr_table=4A
Mid-Atlantic:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=MID%2E+ATLANTIC&mmwr_table=4A
S.Atlantic: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=S%2E+ATLANTIC&mmwr_table=4A
W.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=W%2EN%2E+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
W.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=W%2ES%2E+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
E.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=E%2EN%2E+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
E.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=E%2ES%2E+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
Mountain: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=Mountain&mmwr_table=4A
Pacific: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=01&mmwr_year=2012&mmwr_location=Pacific&mmwr_table=4A




El Paso , 2012

01 131  95  25  6  2  3  2  
02 118  87  21  4  3  3  1  
03 133  90  30  8  3  2  4  
04 095  64  25  3  2  1  3  
05 102  74  17  5  3  3  4  
06 066  47  11  4  1  3  4  
07 106  76  19  6  2  3  3  
08 100  78  16  3  1  2  1  
09 111  78  26  3  3  1  4  
10 116  78  29  6  1  2  7  
11 089  69  15  2  3  -  6  
12 114  81  24  6  2  1  8  
13 112  82  21  4  2  3  4  
14 133  98  27  3  3  2  8  
15 110  75  29  5  1  -  2  

week 2-8:720,515,139,33,15,17,20, 2.78%
week 9-15:785,561,171,29,16,9,39, 4.97%


http://www.elpasotexas.gov/health/_docu ... #view=fitH

Influenza Jan,Feb,Mar : 44,235,608 H1N1 : 1,10,21


El Paso County:
week,tested,H3,H1,B
3,3,0,0,0
4,0,0,0,0
5,21,1,2,0
6,11,2,4,1
7,6,3,2,1
8,16,7,2,0
9,19,7,8,1
10,19,9,2,2
11,32,13,3,2
12,18,5,6,3
13,3,2,0,1

_________________
no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !