Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

MMWR P&I rose to 7.20% (above epidemic threashold).

2 pediatric deaths (California)

11 P&I deaths in El paso.

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Last week's rate was 7.1%, which was at the epidemic threshold. The historic rate continues to decline, but the increase to 7.2% in week 23 puts the level above the threshold, which is aound 7.0%.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Week 22 graph (week 23 will be available tomorrow)

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Below is the week 23 P&I graph showing the rate of 7.2% is above the epidemic threshold of 7.0%

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Interesting. That last spike was the highest since the start of swine flu.

The P&I death pattern vaguely resembles 2007-08, where the %P&I deaths bounced between the baseline and epidemic threshold roughly between weeks 20 and 28, which means that at best we are having a more deadly than average flu season (and post-flu season). One difference is that we have spent more weeks at or above the epidemic threshold that any time covered by the chart. What is perplexing to me is that despite this, most of the flu indicators suggest that we should be below baseline. But, I suppose that if you don't test, you obviously don't get positive results.

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I used to think I had to understand in order to believe, but then I realized that I had to believe in order to understand. - Augustine

I have a dumb question, if you don't mind. Why do the modeled %P&I deaths for baseline and epidemic threshold trend upward over time (the peak for 2007-08 is 7.8% and that for 2010-11 is 8.0%)? Does this reflect an aging population?

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I used to think I had to understand in order to believe, but then I realized that I had to believe in order to understand. - Augustine