Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Just read your latest commentary.

The vax is a hoax and it looks like our big stockpile of Tamiflu will be useless. Pharmacists here tell me stocks of Relenza are low and hard to get.

This doesn't look good. Is this new mutation mix more severe/fatal? Or just more resistant?[/quote]
The sub-clade itself has evolved fairly quickly and spread like wildfire, so I suspect the H1N1 itself is pretty aggressive.

However, the S246N is really a major problem, which is pretty obvious to anyone (other than Biota shareholders) who think through the numbers. S246N reduces Tamiflu's effectiveness six fold and the FDA approved dose is 10 pills (2 per day for 5 days).

If you went to the Dr with H1N1 and he prescribed Tamiflu, what would you think if he said there was a shortage, so instead of writing a script for 10 pills, he was only going to give you 2 and instead of taking 2 per day for 5 days, he said to take 1 today and the 2nd pill in three days.

Most patients have had antibiotics and have been told to take the entire presciption, even if they feel better to avoid selection for resistant bugs. If the prescition was only for 1/6 of the FDA approved amount, most would question the efficacy of the greatly reduced dose and some would worry about resistance.

However, our resident Biota self appointed physician says "no problem" because of some pharmaco-kinetic data generated by the company, says the does per pill is well above the effective dose.

Most would question the efficacy of 1/6 the approved dose. If the drug was effective at 1/6 the tested dose, then why use so much, when there are well known side effects? Why not get an FDA approval for 10 pills, each at 1/6 the dose (which would greatly reduce side effects)?

The idea that a six fold reduction in activity is no problem is something that Biota shareholders tell to anyone who will listen, but most patients strongly suspect that the prescription for 2 pills instead of 10 pills is a major problem.

In the case of H1N1, that major problem is greater because the mixtures containing less than 50% H274Y are hidden by an WHO "agreement".

S246N is a MAJOR problem, nonsense posted by Biota shareholders notwithstanding, and this genetic change is likely to become quite common in Australia this season.[/quote]


Niman

Your comments are quite bizzare. For starters its a three fold decrease for relenza not six like you state.Thats for Tamiflu. You get confused easily. Poor old Dingos taking your lies hook line and sinker which is why you are dangerous to world health. People actually believe you.

Dingo just read this and make up your own mind. For now both drugs are good. Of course this may change but we are not taking about what might happen but what is happening now.

If Relenza becomes non-effective you will be the first to know. Just remember H274 doesnt effect Relenza.


''Patients who receive the recommended dosages of oseltamivir and zanamivir would easily have high enough systemic levels of the drugs to still be effective against the S247N variant, "and therefore the variant is unlikely to be clinically resistant," the report states.''


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten ... esist.html



'SINGAPORE--A new H1N1 virus strain discovered by collaborating scientists in Singapore last December may yet mutate dangerously.'

'It is already mildly resistant to common drugs such as Tamiflu and Relenza. For now, a full dose of these drugs is still effective against the new strain'

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/life/scienc ... s-warn.htm

Before you get abusive towards me, learn to read. I pointed this out if you care to look.

Learn to read yourself Dingo. I was talkng to Niman and his comments not yours.

You forgot the bit in blue, didn't you? I questioned Niman on this earlier.

Math 101
Relenza is usually taken TWO times a day (for 5 days). A three fold drop in effectiveness means that the effective dose would be increased to SIX times a day.

2 X 3 = 6

This is GRADE school math, at best.

It is pretty obvious that my statement of "six rather than two" for Relenza is in reference to the daily dose required to maintain the same effectiveness when the target has S246N.

_________________
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http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArt ... leId=19884
Given that a number of studies have recently reported I223 mutations conferring NAI resistance in influenza A(H1N1)2009 strains [3,4,9,10], and that data from the United Kingdom show an increased frequency of H275Y mutants in community samples [2], the likelihood of mutation combinations S247N+I223X and S247N+H275Y is considerably increased if the S247N influenza A(H1N1)2009 variant continues to spread.

I222R
EPI318426 A/Netherlands/2631c/2010 (A/H1N1) segment 6 (NA) 27.0 6.498213e+00 14/14 (100%)
EPI307370 A/Ontario/130741/2010 (A/H1N1) segment 6 (NA) 27.0 6.498213e+00 14/14 (100%)
EPI272395 A/HIROSHIMA/490/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI269494 A/Netherlands/2631b/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI266942 A/Pennsylvania/30/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI266272 A/Pennsylvania/30/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI252428 A/Ontario/313762/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000

I222K
EPI253924 A/Santiago/21579/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI227639 A/Chile/1579/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000
EPI212400 A/Italy/181/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 6 (NA) 52.8 0.00000

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A/Jiangxi-Donghu/SWL131/2010 collected 2010-01-07 4F
A/Jiangxi-Donghu/SWL157/2010 collected 2010-01-13 29M

Sequences are identical and have S246N, signaling transmission in China (samples collected a week apart from different patients)

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CY072470 A/Athens/INS342/2009 17-Dec-2009 46F
CY062875 A/Athens/INS161/2009 19-Dec-2009 24M
CY073505 A/Athens/INS350/2009 20-Dec-2009 43F

Identical sequences with S246N signaling transmission in three patients in Greece.

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www.twitter.com/hniman