Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

H5N1 avian influenza viruses in Egypt have branched into new sublineages and have shown a mutation that helps them bind more readily to human cell receptors in the lower respiratory tract, which may indicate an increased pandemic potential, according to a study published yesterday. Researchers from Egypt, Japan, and Thailand conducted a phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 viruses isolated from 2006 to 2009 in Egypt. Using reverse genetics, they found that several new sublineages have acquired an enhanced receptor-binding affinity of the viral hemagglutinin to alpha-2,6-linked sialic acid (SA), which is a receptor-binding trait of human influenza strains. The mutation was associated with increased attachment to and infectivity in the lower respiratory tract but not the larynx of humans and also demonstrated increased virulence in mice. The authors conclude, "Our findings suggested that emergence of new H5 sublineages with alpha-2,6 SA specificity caused a subsequent increase in human H5N1 influenza virus infections in Egypt, and provided data for understanding the virus's pandemic potential."
May 26 PLoS Pathog
study: http://www.plospathogens.org/article/in ... at.1002068

It may be a hat trick for Niman.

H3N2 pandemic

New H1N1 pandemic

Possible H5N1 pandemic

Viruses and elegant evolution. Still can't understand why they must be highly pathogenic when the aim is to evolve.

To CPG
Think you not that a more virulent pandemic is very likely?

History tells us that a virulent pandemic is likely one day but we all know what happened to the boy who cried wolf. Now that's dangerous to world health.

They don't "have" to be highly pathogenic, but the sobering thing is, that in an overpopulated world, or poultry house, or stockyard, highly pathogenic viruses CAN evolve. In this day and time, they CAN afford to kill a victim fast, and STILL be successful. It's not their "aim" viruses don't think... it's just what can happen when the next host is only inches away. Viruses like that didn't stand a chance back when chickens ran around in a yard, and when ducks swam in a lake, and when pigs roamed around in the woods. But we interfered with all of that, a long time ago.

_________________
"Old Mother Goose, when she wanted to wander, would ride through the air on a very fine gander."
1916
"Mother Goose had a house,
'Twas built in a wood,
Where an owl at the door
For sentinel stood."

~ keep in mind that at the end of that proverbial story... the wolf shows up.

It's never good to spread fear, but awareness has kept our species going for a long time. I wouldn't turn my back on the idea that a highly pathogenic virus could rise up and take it's toll, any more than I would turn my back on the mouth of a cave at night. What's wrong with just being AWARE? Can't you folks just be aware without calling it panic? Or Spreading fear?

_________________
"Old Mother Goose, when she wanted to wander, would ride through the air on a very fine gander."
1916
"Mother Goose had a house,
'Twas built in a wood,
Where an owl at the door
For sentinel stood."

I agree littlebird awareness is vital. But seriously on this site I see a lot of panic spreading causing fear. In most cases nothing comes of it.

Surely there must be a balance.

There is a balance. But no one is in a position to measure it without bias (myself included). So neither you, nor I can really say who will be more accurate. I see a cocked trigger in the world viral environment. But I have no idea how much pressure is being applied to the trigger, and when the gun will go off.

It would be irresponsible not to warn of impending dangers, whether they exist 5 years or 50 years down the road. Look at Japan. They are closing a nuclear reactor that lies on a fault line that has an 87% (or something silly like that) chance of seeing a major earthquake within the next few decades. Are they being alarmist in doing this, or responsible? No one knows. But they are removing one threat from the "catastrophe equation." Depending on your imperfect view of future history, that could be good or bad. It is not necessarily a bad thing to be overly cautious when we are talking about the potential fate of the human race.

I am everything made all right with you Pandora !!

Who is afraid or panicking? If you aren't, how do you know others are? I think "panic" and "fear" are in the eyes of the beholder. Unless people have posted or are posting stuff like "EEEEEK I'm so scared and afraid what'll I do what'll I do" then no one is panicking.