Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Week 16 report delayed

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Here are the El Paso P&I totals for weeks 14-18 for the past 15 years

2011 68
2010 24
2009 23
2008 17
2007 26
2006 18
2005 31
2004 12 (wks 15 and 18 missing)
2003 32
2002 28
2001 27
2000 18
1999 22
1998 22
1997 32
1996 39

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paso.pi
monthly deaths in El Paso by cause (ICD8,9,10) 1962-2002

paso.er
monthly deaths in El Paso by 12 age-groups 1962-2002

paso_pi1.bas to read,graph




P+I -deaths in April 1962-2002
5 6 8 9 4 7 11 3
9 2 8 2 5 10 7 6 8 4
1 2 2 2 7 2 3 6 10 1
8 8 6 7 8 8 14 8 4 9
6 8 8

by deaths certificates

total monthly deaths in El Paso in April 1962-2002:
156 134 135 124 156 151 148 172
174 159 158 225 192 173 157 177 211 194
175 194 166 196 185 210 206 230 224 205
251 276 243 304 257 282 288 286 285 286
308 305 326



http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm

Number of deaths for leading causes of death
Heart disease: 616,067
Cancer: 562,875
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 135,952
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 127,924
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 123,706
Alzheimer's disease: 74,632
Diabetes: 71,382
Influenza and Pneumonia: 52,717
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 46,448
Septicemia: 34,828
Source: Deaths: Final Data for 2007, table B

53000 out of ~2.4M per year , that doesn't give the typical
weekly 6% from MMWR


so presumably MMWR includes some other conditions
in P+I, not P+I by international code of diseases


hmm, mentioned anywhere on the death-certificate ...
they have much space of 2ndary,tertiary... conditions
on the death certificates (usually blank), maybe El Paso changed their
habits to use these recently


For the 1999--00 season, a new case definition for P&I death was used in the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System. Before this season, a P&I death was considered to be one in which pneumonia was identified as an underlying cause of death or influenza was listed anywhere on the death certificate. For the 1999--00 influenza season, this case definition was changed so that a P&I death was defined as one in which pneumonia or influenza was listed anywhere on the death certificate. The new case definition could potentially increase P&I mortality measurement levels in comparison with previous seasons. In addition, a limited number of cities use International Classification of Disease (ICD) (17) coding of the underlying cause of death to report P&I deaths to the 122 cities system. In 1999, some of these sites converted from ICD version 9 coding to ICD version 10 coding. ICD 10 coding changed the way that the underlying cause of death is defined and reduced the number of deaths attributed to P&I by approximately 60%. During the 1999--00 season, the effect of these two changes on the national estimate of the percentage of P&I deaths was unknown. The baseline and epidemic threshold values projected for the 1999--00 season used the previous P&I definitions. During summer 2000, an analysis of the P&I mortality data indicated that the combined changes had led to an approximate 0.8% upward shift in the 1999--00 mortality estimates that did not represent a true increase in mortality. To adjust for this upward shift in mortality estimates, the 122 cities P&I mortality baseline was retrospectively adjusted upward for the 1999--00 influenza season. For this report, the 1997--98 and 1998--99 season baseline and epidemic threshold values and proportion of P&I deaths were increased by 0.8 percentage points to allow for comparison with the 1999--00 season.

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18 108 77 24 5 1 1 13
19 118 79 29 8 1 1 15

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The 15 deaths for week 19 raises the total for the past 6 weeks to 83, yet another record

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.as ... r_table=4A

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even more significant is Houston.

deaths in weeks 1-9
deaths in weaks 11-19

looks like they are examining some deaths from weeks 1-9
only now and attribute it to later weeks




MMWR
Week All Causes, by Age (Years) Pneumonia and
Influenza
Houston
All Ages** >=65 45-64 25-44 1-24 Less than 1
01 84 53 25 2 2 2 2
02 93 52 26 8 2 5 9
03 95 64 21 2 - 8 4
04 96 58 27 4 4 3 5
05 66 48 11 4 1 2 1
06 94 61 22 8 1 2 8
07 100 61 26 3 1 9 5
08 113 64 35 6 3 5 8
09 99 53 33 4 1 8 5
10 69 43 13 2 2 9 15
11 107 57 31 6 - 13 9
12 195 105 56 24 4 6 14
13 179 98 35 31 2 13 12
14 138 61 41 25 7 4 10
15 224 126 52 29 8 9 17
16 229 163 15 29 15 7 19
17 157 102 29 11 5 10 11
18 330 213 88 19 3 5 17
19 302 166 94 19 6 17 19

840,1861 more than redoubled

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Houston numbers are suspect when compared to prior years (total deaths for beginning of 2011 are too low). In contrast, El Paso continues to set 15 year records. New weekly records have now been set for 4 of the past 6 weeks (weeks 14, 15, 18, 19 with 19, 24, 13, 15 deaths respectively).

The prior El Paso death record for week 19 was 7 in 1997.

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05191 ... PI_83.html

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could be that they just now examine old pneumonia deaths
in El Paso and attribute it current weeks.
Maybe date of death unclear, maybe cause of death revised,
maybe formerly wrongly registered in another region
or county or state or country

what Houston can do can also do El Paso

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

Please.

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