Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Why is the CDC playing these silly games?

"She reported that the CDC has found the mutation in a total of eight cases, of which five were nonfatal. Some of the nonfatal cases were mild."

I'm glad some of the nonfatal cases were mild...

The CDC is behind the double whammy, claiming that D225N isn't important, and the vaccine is effective, which is the formula for disaster. They claim that D225G and D225N are "random mutations" and the movement from one genetic background to another is NOT linked to recombination (its just a coincidence, with some slection), which actually predicted both changes for Ukraine, when the CDC said such predictions were not possible.

Thus, the game are played to maintain their scientifc positions which are WRONG. It is classical behavior when confronted with a paradigm shift (influenza evolves via recombination which can be used to predict new vaccine tragets), and the old pardaigm of random mutations will die, but it remains unclear how many people will also die as defenders of the old paradigm maintain their control.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Old data from the spring of 2009. The data since late 2009 is VERY clear for D225G and D225N.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

WHO also claims D225G and D225N are not important as indicated in comments on Ukraine:


- Preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus based on investigations of samples taken from patients in Ukraine. Analyses are being performed by two WHO influenza collaborating centres as part of the global influenza surveillance network.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_16/en/index.html

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Similarly, the said the same thing about Chihuahua:

Thus far, there is no evidence that the influenza strains identified have mutations that confer greater virulence

http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option ... temid=2469

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www.twitter.com/hniman

My point was the way the reporting of the data was slanted. We're looking at a 37.5% case fatality rate in these eight cases, with some of the other five cases being severe, and all that is being highlighted is that some of the nonfatal cases were mild.

Thanks.

I've studied the history and philosophy of science, paradigm changes etc but even allowing for all of the above, I would have thought that at least some sense of self preservation (and perhaps a scintilla of concern for the populace) and concern for their reputation would prod the CDC into reasonable action.

Yes, the CDC was setting up an unreasonable expectation of 100% correlation, but after the spring of 2009, the correlation actually was/is close to 100%. To get severe disease you need the change at a high level in the virus, as well as a high titer of virus. In the sping of 2009 low titer virus was circulating, so D225G in low titer would still produce mild cases. However, by the summer / fall of 2009 the circulation H1N1 was higher titer so the vast majority of isolates with D225G or D225N were from severe or fatal cases.

The CDC position was unreasonable in 2009, and the WHO claim for 2011 Chihuahua sequences with D225N is absurd (and they know it is absurd, which is why they were forced to issue the 2011 pandemic alert).

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Unfortunately, the CDC still thinks they are correct, so they are just defending their (wrong and misguided) position.

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www.twitter.com/hniman