Pennsylvania is distant.
What's the date, what the mutations, what the calculated
most recent common ancestor date with the Chihuahua sequences ?
No increased P+I deaths in Pennsylvania
(but in El Paso and possibly in Chihuahua)
hmm, weekly P+I ratio in the 6 cities from PA:
As posted to you April 16:viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7057&start=28
You start with an undated chat session that claims no recent H1 sequences at GISAID, when there are sequences that contradict your nonsense on reassortment. Multiple reports cited visitors from New Mexico and Texas as introducing the Chihuahua sublade in Juarez (across the border from Las Cruces, NM). An earlier isolate, Texas/03/2010, represents the novel sub-clade and a full sequence was released some time ago and there was no reassortment. Moreover, more recent sequences at GISAID show the sub-clade throughout the US. Full sequences were relased for two, PA/02/2011 and MD/04/2011 (both collected in February) and they matched each other and the earlier sequence from Texas. Thus the real data against reassortment is overwhelming. Moreover, of the 8 Chihuahua sequences published from Mexico, 2 have D225N (from UPPER respiratory tract). I have seen or heard about unpublished sequences from Mexico, as well as multiple countries in South America that are the Chihuahua subclade, and D225N is present at a similar frequency (and the frequency in unreleased sequences from Mexico is higher than the released sequences). D225N is RARELY reported, At Genbank the number of 2010 sequences with D225N is ZERO. Earlier examples were from autopsy lung, NOT samples from the upper respiratory tract, and were collected in 2009.
Thus, the public and private DATA for D225N is OVERWHELMING, with NO evidence for reassortment.
Moreover, your bogus 20% is based on statements that are demonstrably FALSE. You claim that the pandemic H1N1 reassorted in March of 2009 based on NO data. You don't have the originating sub-clade and related sequences are in ASIA, including a VERY large series from Hong Kong, as well as sequences from Thailand. In Thailand there are 2005 swine and HUMAN H1N1 sequences with a "North American" H1 and a "European" N1, contradicting your false claim that reassortment created the pandemic H1N1 in 2009. You also claim that the related sequences in the US are "different" even though the P&I death rate in the US has been at or above the epidemic threshold for 11 weeks in a row, including this week (8.0%), when the CDC indicated the level of influenza was in sharp decline. Moreover, the P&I rate of El Paso is 16% for week 14 (latest report).
Thus, your 20% is BOGUS. There is no evidence that this is the time of year for reassortment or any examples of a human case that has pandemic H1N1 genes reassorted with swine or human flu genes anywhere.
The role of D225N is OBVIOUS to anyone paying attention, which explains the high level of severe and fatal cases because it is present at high frequency in this novel subclade. The title of the sequences from Mexico is
TITLE Detection of D222N Substitution in the Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) Virus in Chihuahua, Mexico 2011 as anyone who reads Recombinomic' commentaries and can click on a link likehttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/CY089587
which was in the commentary on D225N in the UPPER respiratory tracthttp://www.recombinomics.com/News/04141 ... Upper.html
Thus, your 20% is BOGUS, as are all of the falsehoods you have posted on the outbreak in Mexico.
Please post this utter nonsense on your babble boards like the thread started on flutrackers.com http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showth
with your BOGUS chat session, where someone might believe your BOGUS probablilities and posts.