Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Gs and I had a chat recently about his concern that pandemic H1N1 (***flu) will reassort with swine flu and become the next pandemic.

We thought we should share the chat and encourage anyone with questions, comments, opinions, etc. to share them.

gsgs [10:23]: talk about H1 ?
mixin [10:23]: sure
gsgs [10:23]: much reassortment in swine
gsgs [10:23]: including ***flu
mixin[10:23]: we should be worried?
gsgs [10:23]: ***flu reasorts with swineflu
gsgs [10:24]: well, swineflu did reassort before
gsgs [10:24]: but now we have the Eurasian segments included
gsgs [10:24]: and it's easily transported over continents
gsgs [10:24]: by humans
gsgs [10:25]: no longer Eurasian and American swine viruses
gsgs [10:25]: quarantine of swine no longer works
gsgs [10:25]: because they get human (***flu) viruses and then reassort
gsgs [10:26]: we are immune meanwhile to swine-H1
mixin[10:26]: what segments are reassorted?
gsgs [10:26]: via ***flu
gsgs [10:26]: but NOT to
gsgs [10:26]: European swine H1
gsgs [10:27]: which went from birds to swine in 1978 in Europe
gsgs [10:27]: and then frequently occurred in Europe and Asia, but not America
gsgs [10:27]: quarantine worked
gsgs [10:27]: now we have already 2 of these European segments in ***flu
gsgs [10:28]: (segments 6 and 7)
gsgs [10:28]: and it exists since 1978 in Eurasia, but didn't jump to humans
gsgs [10:28]: so , why now ?
gsgs [10:28]: becaue it reassorts with the other swine strains
gsgs [10:29]: which are already in humans
gsgs [10:29]: and swine
gsgs [10:29]: this may enhance European swine H1 's capability to reassort and jump to humans
gsgs [10:30]: then we get European H1 (Avian(1978))
gsgs [10:30]: to which we have no immunity
gsgs [10:31]: I think, it was already in humans occasionally
gsgs [10:31]: European,Asian swine workers, swine farmers
gsgs [10:31]: and AFAIK it is not so virulent
gsgs [10:31]: but still
gsgs [10:32]: I do see pandemic danger from Eurasian swine H1
mixin[10:32]: do you think mexico has a reassorted strain?
gsgs [10:32]: yes
gsgs [10:32]: this was established in May 2009
gsgs [10:32]: remember ?
gsgs [10:33]: 123458 from triple-reassortant American swine
mixin[10:33]: I mean whatever is going around now... is it a different strain?
gsgs [10:33]: and 67 from Eurasian swine
gsgs [10:33]: not in humans
gsgs [10:33]: not the public sequences
gsgs [10:33]: maybe in Chihuahua
gsgs [10:34]: i make it 20%
gsgs [10:34]: but it may happen again, later, in Asia
mixin[10:34]: Isn't our vax still good as long as HA stays basically the same?
gsgs [10:34]: yes
gsgs [10:35]: but not against Eurasian HA
gsgs [10:35]: our vax and more important : our immunity
mixin [10:35]: but as long as HA doesn't reassort, we are OK?
gsgs [10:35]: almost
gsgs [10:36]: reassortment is usually enhanced virus evolution
gsgs [10:36]: getting more "features" more quickly
gsgs [10:37]: transmission,survival,entering other sorts of cells,virulence
gsgs [10:37]: it's not just immunity and HA
gsgs [10:37]: NA,MP also play some role in immunty, though smaller than HA
gsgs [10:38]: but as for a new pandemic, we should concentrate on HA
mixin[10:38]: About your 20%.. there's a 20% chance that a new pandemic will start soon?
gsgs [10:39]: no, 20% that chihuahuaflu has reassorted
gsgs [10:39]: with non***flu-segments
mixin [10:39]: it is a bit strange that they haven't released many sequences
gsgs [10:39]: probably not in HA
gsgs [10:40]: well, they already did test HA and NA
gsgs [10:40]: uploaded to genbank
gsgs [10:40]: I don't know whether they did test other segments
mixin [10:40]: No H1 sequences at Gisaid for a week
mixin [10:41]: unless there is some since yesterday
gsgs [10:41]: so, what about European swinish H1-HA ?
mixin [10:41]: I didn't look
gsgs [10:41]: that seems to be the biggest danger now
gsgs [10:41]: what do you think about the danger
gsgs [10:41]: my explanation
gsgs [10:42]: should we post about it
gsgs [10:42]: reformulate
gsgs [10:42]: with links
mixin [10:42]: I'm not sure what to think; but I always trust your opinion
gsgs [10:42]: did you see it elsewhere
mixin [10:42]: no
gsgs [10:42]: ask other experts whether they agree
gsgs [10:43]: it should be discussed now
gsgs [10:43]: IMO
mixin [10:45]: so what now has you more worried than before?
gsgs [10:46]: frequent reassortment in swine
gsgs [10:46]: involving ***flu

Nonsense.

20% is too much or too little in your opinion ?

gisaid is not "published"

Go away. Your wacko comments are beyond annoying. You just posted that new H1N1 sequences were NOT at GISAID, when they were . Now you are saying the sequences at GISAID are not public when they show that your 20% estimate on reassortant in Chihuahua is not based on reality.

You are posting BLATANT lies.

Go away.

You are the one who needs a reality check, Niman.

I was the one who posted that there had been no new sequences for the past week. At the time, the 108 GISAID sequences had not been submitted.

Gs and I had a chat recently about his concern

Again, Reading 101



And the chat wasn't about GISAID (although that's what you made it about). It was about his concern about reassortment in swine.

20% is too much or too little in your opinion ?

gisaid is not "published"

Again, Reading 101



And the chat wasn't about GISAID (although that's what you made it about). It was about his concern about reassortment in swine.