Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

I just took a quick review of other "flu" boards and it seems that the cluster in the transit department has attracted attention since two have died and one is critical. Transmittion of a lethal H1N1 is a serious concern (although doubters throw out some hand waving about co-infections, ignoring similar severity / fatalities away from the transit department).

However, additional excuses are made. One claims that this is prime flu season in Mexico, which is absurd. H3N2 was dominant in Mexico and it peaked in 2010. Prior to this H1N1 outbreak the flu season in Mexico (which is in the northern hemisphere, especially the state of Chihuahua) was essentially over. Others claim that the high rate of hospitalizations and deaths are just selection which ignores a high level of milder cases. However, there has been little evidence of mild cases in Mexico, and the high concentration of severe / fatal cases was seen in the cluster linked to the traffic department as well as Mexico in general, especially Chihuahua.

Although there is some interest in sequences (and nonsense about depositing them at Genbank because the pseudo-scientists don't have access to GISAID), the fact that the initial cases were diagnosed as atypical pneumonia and the striking parallels with 2009 are essentially ignored.

Similarly, media in the US is still MIA, and the best they can do is note the decline in flu cases as the flu season winds down.

I expect to see some dramatic changes in attitude if the sequences are released next week, which would make it clear that this is a new wave, and 2009/2010 as 1917 will become a topic of interest.

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As far as sequences are concerned, I suspect they will be released by the CDC, and based on past performance will be released at GISAID. If released at Genbank a major event would be signaled, and at this point I sincerely doubt that the CDC wants to signal a major event.

It is unclear how long they think they can withhold the US sequences. However, they don't want to show a US origin, or a lag in surveillance / attention, so the key sequences and collections dates will be interesting. Of course these sequence may have originated in swine elsewhere, as the number of countries reporting pandemic H1N1 in swine continue to increase. China released such sequences today. Of course they were on a significant delay (samples collected over a year ago).

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The Director of Health Services Chihuahua Angel Villaseñor Benavides and Dr. Jorge Duque Rodríguez unveiled the current report regarding the disease that has caused the attention of 92 cases considered as suspects, which have confirmed the 21 mentioned.

In addition to the above, the doctors said that to expand their prevention efforts on Monday will begin a special review of death certificates issued by the Registry Office in recent weeks and whose causes are accentuated acute respiratory infections.

This, he notes, as a way to verify that all suspected cases have been addressed, thus ensuring that in case some find it questionable death, initiated investigation into the matter and, if necessary, implement special actions in a certain region.

The information provided is pointed out that of all cases reported with influenza H1N1, four patients are in hospital and twelve convalescing at home, in addition to the five deaths.

Give groups where there is greater presence of the H1N1 continues to be among young adults, the highest peak being found out 25 to 44 years.

http://www.oem.com.mx/elheraldodechihua ... 025769.htm

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Notice the emphasis on atypical pneumonia. This is because the testing has problems detecting the H1N1 and there are MANY atypical pneumonia deaths, indicating the H1N1 may be much more widespread than indicated by confirmed cases. Moreover, the H1N1 is targeting lungs leading to more severe and fatal cases.

This situation is quite serious, minimal lab confirmed cases notwithstanding,

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04021 ... eview.html

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After the health warning which ordered the Minister of Health, Dr. Sonia Castro, the medical staff of public hospitals in the country stepped up its surveillance system to search for suspected cases with the H1N1 virus. Although only children's hospital were 67 pacientitos with respiratory problems, this figure does not indicate a national epidemic outbreak.

This was announced by Dr. Gerardo Mejia, director of the Hospital Infantil Manuel de Jesus Rivera "La Mascota", adding that pneumonia is the leading cause of hospitalization in the medical center, so that, according to him, it's no shock or alarm has 67 patients.

http://translate.google.com/translate?h ... rmd%3Divns

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Lots of pneumonia cases in children in Mexico.

DR GERARDO MEJIA HOSPITAL DIRECTOR OF THE DOG
El doctor Gerardo Mejía, Director del Hospital “La Mascota”. Dr. Gerardo Mejia, Director of the Hospital La Mascota. Manuel Zapata / END Manuel Zapata

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Mexico City .- The H1N1 strain has shifted to other influenza viruses that circulated in Mexico, reported yesterday by the Secretary of Health José Ángel Córdova.

Interviewed after leading the anniversary of the National Association of Endoscopy, the official explained that the pandemic virus had a minimal presence in the early months of the year but in recent surveys was found in more than half of patients with influenza.

"(The report) 137 flu cases last week, more than 50 percent of them from H1N1. Are still very few. Estamos . We are talking about 75 cases (H1N1) across the country. Before we had a thousand cases a day, 2 000 cases or more, "he said.

However, he said, with the increased presence of the virus was alerted to the Health Units Monitors Influenza (USMIS) to increase the number of samples of the disease.

When you begin to see that there are fewer and fewer cases decreases slightly sampling. If there are any new cases, is reinforced. We are in it, "he said.

Cordova said that there is no guarantee that the hot season of virus circulation decline.

"The truth is that the virus is always present and is a virus that takes advantage of the spaces. When another low this virus emerges and so are all the time, so monitoring must be sick, "he added.

He reported that in Chihuahua have been reported to date six deaths from the disease and 80 cases, of which only 17 have been confirmed.

He insisted that an outbreak is localized and controlled, he said, will weaken in the coming weeks.

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/ ... kSas3gDoaQ

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The other boards are getting bizzare by trying to added dengue into the equation, which is shades of 1918 (H1N1 infections were called dengue back then also).

The current wave is a serious H1N1 (which knows how to evolve) problem, no handwaving hocus pocus required.

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I thought that was odd myself and I responded pointing out that there have been six cases and three deaths in the transit office, at least one other case claimed to have gotten sick while in TX, and that there has been a high number of pediatric deaths in TX, with four attributed to pH1N1 (if you count the Texas boy who died in Shreveport, LA), two to H3N2, and five unsubtyped A. Having nearly half the pediatric influenza A deaths unsubtyped should raise a red flag in itself. I think they need to take this a lot more seriously.

Perhaps 2009-10 was more like 1916 than 1917. If you just look at the number of fatalities, last year seemed like an average year. Back in 1915 and 1916, I doubt they would have noticed that the demographics of the deaths being unusual, especially given that the world was preoccupied with the Great War.

Perhaps this will be our equivalent to the first "mild" wave in the spring of 1917. If a serious virulent evolved strain breaks out, we're probably less prepared than we were in 2009.

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I used to think I had to understand in order to believe, but then I realized that I had to believe in order to understand. - Augustine