Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_year=2011&mmwr_week=08&mmwr_table=1

From MMWR Table 1 Week 8 2011:

Influenza-associated pediatric mortality:

NJ (2 ), PA (2 ), OH (1 ), IL (1 ), MI (1 ), MN (1 ), KY (1 ), TX (3 ), NV (1 ), HI (1 )

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I used to think I had to understand in order to believe, but then I realized that I had to believe in order to understand. - Augustine

Pediatric deaths will continue to rise as H1N1 becomes dominant and vaccines continue to fail.

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Interesting research

Niman

Can you please intepret for me the exact HA changes they made to get this strain and relate it the amino acid/protein changes like D225 we talk about. Thanks


''Analysis of this model indicates that Lys145 in CA04/09 HA provides an additional anchoring contact for the sialic acid''

''In the present study we demonstrate that a single Ile219→Lys amino acid change stabilizes the ionic molecular interaction network involving residues 219, 227 and 186 in the RBS of 2009 H1N1 HA that in turn substantially increases its human receptor affinity in comparison with wild-type HA''


http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Ad ... ne.0017616

I219V

EPI304460 A/Norway/239/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 6.06498
EPI304459 A/Norway/282/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 6.06498
EPI304387 A/SRI LANKA/21/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 6.06498
EPI302484 A/Karlmar/1/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 6.06498
EPI302351 A/DARWIN/2/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 6.06498
EPI301918 A/Iraq/4-KMJ/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301916 A/Iraq/21-SAK/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301914 A/Iraq/17-BAF/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301912 A/Iraq/15-IKA/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301910 A/Iraq/11-BBG/2011 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301843 A/PaisVasco/RR7062/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301841 A/PaisVasco/RR7055/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301840 A/PaisVasco/RR7054/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301839 A/PaisVasco/RR7053/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301838 A/Baleares/RR7041/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301837 A/Baleares/RR7040/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301836 A/Baleares/RR7039/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301835 A/Baleares/RR7038/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301833 A/Baleares/RR7036/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301818 A/CastillaLaMancha/RR6975/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301811 A/Asturias/RR6898/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301808 A/PaisVasco/RR6909/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301779 A/Stockholm/14/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301776 A/Stockholm/15/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301447 A/PaisVasco/RR6909/10 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301392 A/Stockholm/8/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301389 A/Stockholm/9/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI301383 A/Jonkoping/1/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI294124 A/VICTORIA/522/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI279096 A/BRISBANE/16/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI279095 A/BRISBANE/15/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI279072 A/BRISBANE/23/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI279067 A/VICTORIA/514/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI279024 A/VICTORIA/5/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI273927 A/Mexico/4178/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI273925 A/Mexico/4178/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI272838 A/Qingdao/375/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI257364 A/Chongqing-Yuzhong/SWL11307/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171
EPI250039 A/Texas/77/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 4 (HA) 27.0 5.95171

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Oh dear. So it's already in the wild type. Just a matter of time then.

The above paper should probably have its own thread or be in a thread on recent H1N1 sequences in Spain, Sweden, or Iraq because a third sub-clade, with I219V is emerging in those countries, while S188T and S186P dominate in other countries, including the US.

H1N1 is evolving and the PLOS paper discusses RBD changes at postions 186 and 189 which can affect binding affinitoes for human receptors. The paper highlights dramatic chnages linked to single amino acid changes at key positions. Unfortunately, these changes are not targeted in the current H1N1 or the one recommended for 2011/2012, which will lead to more pediatric deaths.

the spike this week in the US is a trailing indicator of the recent increases in H1N1 activity (and the decreases in H3N2 and influenza B).

H1N1 is a VERY dangerous clade because it is of swine origin (and swine H1N1 has chnages at positions 225 and 227), which can lead to catestrophic outcomes, handwaving about environment issues in 1918 notwithstanding).

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03041 ... _8_11.html

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Week 7 graph

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•Fourteen influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported bringing the season total to 55. Four of these deaths were associated with an influenza B virus, four were associated with a 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus, two were associated with an influenza A (H3) virus, and four were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was not determined.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

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Week 8 graph

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