Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Similarly, the number of hospitalized patients in week 2 (ending 1/15/20011) and week 3 (ending 1/22/2011) is WITHHELD from week 3 report
http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/se ... 490&mode=2

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Influenza activity is on the increase in Pennsylvania of January 22, 2011:



Influenza (flu) activity was WIDESPREAD during week 03; there was an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) and lab confirmed influenza in all regions of the state. There evidence of influenza throughout the state.
4% of all outpatient Visits to doctors reported by sentinel physicians were for flu-like illnesses (IILI), which is far above the state baseline (2.4%) and up from 2.8% reported the previous week.
Emergency Department (ED) visits continue to be elevated throughout the state.
7 Influenza A outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) reported, a similar number of outbreaks were reported the previous week. Thirty eight flu outbreaks have been reported since the begining of October 2010.
915 flu cases were reported, a 53% increase from 597 cases reported the previous week. While all regions of the state reported increased flu activity, significant increases were reported in the southcentral and northcentral regions of the state which had low activity at the begining of the season.
Nearly 70% of all specimens tested for influenza at the state lab were positive. Specimens tested at the state lab are mostly from people with influenza-like illness(ILI). This high positivity suggests that most people presenting with ILI may actually have the flu.
Influenza type A accounted for 90% of flu cases reported during week 3, flu type B caused the other 10%.
One flu death was reported during week 03, altogether 18 flu deaths have been reported since October of 2010. Less than 10 flu deaths are reported by January during most flu seasons (except last year when the pandemic A/H1N1 circulated).
Eventhough the elderly (people over 65 years) currently account for only 18% of all flu cases reported so far, they account for more than half of all hospitalizations and deaths.
Influenza activity among health adults aged 25 to 49 years is on the increase, this is now the most affected age group followed by the elderly.
Most of the recent influenza hospitalizatons and deaths were in people who had no recent history of influenza vaccination.
Getting vaccinated is the first and best way to prevent flu, and Pennsylvania Department of Health continues to recommend vaccination at this time. As long as flu season isn’t over, it’s not too late to get vaccinated.
Flu vaccines are readily available this season and the vaccine is well matched to the circulating strains. The flu vaccine is good for anyone above 6 months of age. For information on influenza vaccination go to, flufreepa.com

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Frequency of not typed samples is on the rise

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Table 2: County Distribution of all Influenza Cases Reported in Pennsylvania this season By Flu type, 10/05/2010-01/22/2011 (#=2695)**




Influenza Type
TOTAL

A
B
S
U

County
28
2
.
.
30

ADAMS

ALLEGHENY
65
44
6
23
138

ARMSTRONG
9
3
.
1
13

BEAVER
13
22
.
.
35

BEDFORD
8
.
.
1
9

BERKS
40
3
1
.
44

BLAIR
25
2
.
.
27

BRADFORD
7
3
.
.
10

BUCKS
97
4
.
.
101

BUTLER
5
5
1
.
11

CAMBRIA
3
.
.
.
3

CAMERON
1
.
.
.
1

CARBON
19
6
.
2
27

CENTRE
62
9
8
.
79

CHESTER
67
5
.
2
74

CLARION
3
2
.
.
5

CLEARFIELD
6
6
.
1
13

CLINTON
38
2
.
.
40

COLUMBIA
12
2
1
.
15

CRAWFORD
11
1
.
.
12

CUMBERLAND
19
3
.
.
22

DAUPHIN
30
4
.
.
34

DELAWARE
63
5
4
.
72

ELK
6
.
.
.
6

ERIE
108
3
.
.
111

FAYETTE
20
6
1
.
27

FOREST
1
.
.
.
1

FRANKLIN
69
10
4
.
83

FULTON
8
1
.
.
9

GREENE
.
2
.
.
2

HUNTINGDON
4
2
.
.
6

INDIANA
8
3
.
.
11

JEFFERSON
7
1
.
.
8

JUNIATA
6
.
.
.
6

LACKAWANNA
31
1
2
.
34

LANCASTER
97
12
5
.
114

LAWRENCE
1
1
.
.
2

LEBANON
41
.
1
.
42

LEHIGH
216
34
5
.
255

LUZERNE
121
7
2
2
132

LYCOMING
125
22
.
.
147

MCKEAN
12
.
.
.
12

MERCER
6
.
.
.
6

MIFFLIN
8
1
.
.
9

MONROE
50
.
1
2
53

MONTGOMERY
134
6
1
.
141

MONTOUR
6
.
.
.
6

NORTHAMPTON
149
14
8
1
172

NORTHUMBERLAND
19
1
1
.
21

PHILADELPHIA
176
5
10
1
192

PIKE
5
1
.
.
6

POTTER
1
1
.
.
2

SCHUYLKILL
51
6
.
1
58

SNYDER
25
.
.
.
25

SOMERSET
6
1
.
.
7

SULLIVAN
3
.
.
.
3

SUSQUEHANNA
2
.
1
.
3

TIOGA
1
.
1
.
2

UNION
28
.
1
.
29

VENANGO
8
4
1
.
13

WARREN
7
.
.
.
7

WASHINGTON
20
2
.
2
24

WAYNE
2
.
.
.
2

WESTMORELAND
37
8
3
1
49

WYOMING
1
.
.
.
1

YORK
39
2
.
.
41

All
2296
290
69
40
2695



** The number of flu cases reported by county may vary from week to week. Numbers reported in a county may go down if a case that was reported in that county turns out to be a resident of a different county or if data entry errors are uncovered.

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01261 ... _PA_3.html

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http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index. ... nnsyl.html

Flu cases have invaded Pennsylvania earlier than usual this year

The flu bug’s dirtiest trick is to mutate so immune systems can’t recognize it. That’s why last year’s vaccine is no good against this year’s flu.

On top of that, the flu doesn’t even show up on time.

This year, it’s striking early.

healthcare.jpgFlu cases surged in mid-January and are rising, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.
Flu cases surged in mid-January and are rising, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

In Pennsylvania, the flu usually shows up a few weeks later, then quickly peaks by late February or early March.

This year, the state logged 1,200 flu cases during the week ending Jan. 29, up from 915 the previous week, and 597 the week before that. At this time of year, there are usually no more than 600 cases per week.

The latest numbers include outbreaks at 17 nursing homes, up from seven the previous week.

The health department declared flu “widespread” across Pennsylvania. The biggest surges were in the southcentral and northcentral regions.


A health department look at 16 recent cases found nearly a third were H1N1.

In Pennsylvania, 21 deaths have been attributed to the flu since October. That figure is about six more than usual at this point, but the increase is probably because of the lingering presence of H1N1.

Flu season usually begins in October and ends by spring.

The higher numbers of flu deaths happen when the flu mutates into a strain that most people haven’t been exposed to, and lack immunity.

Niman

Can we assume from your posts that we wont be having a H3N2 pandemic this year

No

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One case of human infection with a novel influenza A virus was reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. The patient was infected with a swine origin influenza A (H3N2) virus. The patient reported contact with pigs in the week preceding symptom onset on September 6, 2010, did not require hospitalization, and has since fully recovered. Initial testing of the specimen indicated a seasonal influenza A (H3N2) virus and the specimen was submitted to CDC as a routine surveillance sample. The delay from onset to detection occurred because attempts to culture the virus were unsuccessful. RT-PCR testing confirmed swine-origin influenza A (H3N2). Six other human infections with swine origin influenza A (H3N2) viruses have been identified in the United States during 2009 through 2010, including one other case from Pennsylvania in week 44 of 2010. No epidemiologic links between this case and any of the other cases of swine-origin H3N2 infection have been identified and the viruses from all seven cases have genetic differences indicating different sources of infection.

There is no evidence of human-to-human transmission with this virus; however, early identification and investigation of all human infections with novel influenza A viruses is critical to evaluate the extent of the outbreak and possible human-to-human transmission. Surveillance for human infections with novel influenza A viruses continues year round.

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The plot is definitely thickening in PA. they have reported SEVERAL untypable cases, including more in the latest report. The CDC comments confirm that these trH3N2 type as seasonal H3N2, so the novel aspect is not determined until there are further tests like antigenic determination of sequences. Thus, there may be MANY more cases sitting at the CDC waiting for further analysis. The latest case symptomatic In September, about the same time as the prior PA trH3N2 case, but is only being reported now, and with NO sequence.

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