Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

The latest HPA report now indicates H1N1 is beginning to kill the elderly (65 or over). This demographic change supports immunological change by the S188T sub-clade.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Up to 19 January 2011, 254 fatal influenza cases from across the UK have been reported to the HPA,
including 165 cases from England. Further epidemiological information on cases is available on 214 of these
cases. One hundred and ninety-five (91%) of these 214 cases were associated with H1N1 (2009) infection,
three with untyped influenza A and 16 (7%) with influenza B infection. Reported deaths have been mainly in
younger adults and children. Amongst the 210 cases with information on age: seven (3%) have been less
than 5 years; 11 (5%) from 5 to 14 years; 137 (65%) from 15 to 64 years and 55 (26%) older than 64 years of
age. One hundred and twenty-eight of 159 fatal cases with available information (81%) were in one of the
CMO-defined clinical risk groups for vaccination. The leading reported clinical risk factors for those with
information were underlying respiratory disease including asthma (n=29) and neurological disease (n=15).

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HP ... 4740008526

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www.twitter.com/hniman

The above indicates there were 16 influenza B deaths, but 55 deaths in those over 65 indicating many of the deaths in elderly were due to H1N1 (which accounted for 91% of the deaths).

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www.twitter.com/hniman

The changes in deaths of those over 64 has been dramatic. In the week 1 report there were 5 Influenza B cases and 4 elderly deaths. For week 2 the influenza B level remained at 5 (but 12 were untyped) and the elderly deaths rose to 16. In the current report the influenza B deaths increased to 16, but there were 55 elderly deaths indicating 39 were due to influenza A (and virtually all influenza A has been H1N1 - there were only three that had not been sub-typed).

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Very grim news.

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Praemonitus, Praemunitus..Forewarned is Forearmed.

No info any vaccine or previous infection with swine H1N1 status?

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01201 ... derly.html

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www.twitter.com/hniman

The elderly already have antibodies to last year's H1N1. that is why >90% of H1N1 deaths are in those under 65. Last season there was no vaccine until the fall wave was virtually over, yet the elderly were not dying because they were not getting infected because they had antibodies to season H1N1 circulating in the 1920's, 30's, 40's, and 50's (or 1918). Now they are dying because the sub-clade with S188T has escaped from those antibodies.

Similarly, the sub-clade could not become dominant this season if it was not able to evade antibodies against last season's H1N1. Without that advantage, the sub-clade would not be able to dominate in recent infections.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Total deaths (England and Wales) from all causes has now been running at 669 deaths per week above the 5 year average over the last 5 weeks. That's 6.4% above the 5 year average.

See http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/E ... /D6157.xls



And http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAweb&HPAweb ... 7147913271

Now, this is happening in Spain as well. Severe cases in the age group over 64 represents a 17%, the third group most affected. This week it has rose from 15% to 17% of all severe cases known up to date (517).

Table showing severe hospitalized cases by age group.



ILI Incidence by age group.