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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 12:44 am 
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So no H3N2 pandemic today Niman.

Still you got a few headlines out of it. Disgraceful.


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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 1:28 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11131 ... ilure.html

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 1:30 am 
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cpg wrote:
So no H3N2 pandemic today Niman.

Still you got a few headlines out of it. Disgraceful.

It's a CDC snow job. They have yet to show ONE example of linkage of an H3N2 infected human to an ill swine.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 2:21 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11131 ... ogeny.html

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 2:46 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
cpg wrote:
So no H3N2 pandemic today Niman.

Still you got a few headlines out of it. Disgraceful.

Reality check. The CDC put out a few CAREFULLY worded statements. Three of the five cases have NO direct link to swine. The other two have a link, but no evidence was presented that any swine were ill, were infected with H3N2, or were infected with H3N2 that matched the contact.

The sequences from the 2009 Iowa cases haven't been released. the sequences from the May, 2010 Minnesota case haven't been released. The sequences from the September Wiscon case haven't been released. The sequences from the October Pennsylvania case haven't been released.

If the sequneces are released, they will show that they are ALL from the same clade signaling human to human transmission and the cat will be out of the bag.

Right now its just a major snow job so anonymous posters will think all is well.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:25 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
cpg wrote:
So no H3N2 pandemic today Niman.

Still you got a few headlines out of it. Disgraceful.

Here is the data made simple.

Number of reported swine H3N2 cases by reported year

2007 ZERO
2008 ZERO
2009 ONE
2010 FOUR

There is a trend in the above data.

Here is another metric:

H3N2 cases before the H1N1 pandemic start
ZERO

H3N2 cases after the H1N1 pandemic start
FIVE

One more:

Number of pandemic H3N2 cases linked to ill or confirmed H3N2 infected swine
ZERO

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 9:11 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
The Wisconsin case reported contact with pigs in the week preceding symptom onset on September 8, 2010 and required hospitalization. http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Wisconsin and Illinois had state fairs that were still ongoing at the end of August. Illinois fair was in Springfield, which is not close to Wisconsin. Wisconsin fair was in Milwaukee, which is much closer to Illinois and Chicago metropolitan area.
Here is a picture from the Wisconsin state fair posted Aug 25, 2010
Image

http://www.agriview.com/articles/2010/0 ... tock03.txt

the patient in Wisconsin became sick two days after attending a state fair where pigs were exhibited
http://www.cdc.gov/media/subtopic/heard.htm#h3n2

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 9:43 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
The Wisconsin case reported contact with pigs in the week preceding symptom onset on September 8, 2010 and required hospitalization. http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Wisconsin and Illinois had state fairs that were still ongoing at the end of August. Illinois fair was in Springfield, which is not close to Wisconsin. Wisconsin fair was in Milwaukee, which is much closer to Illinois and Chicago metropolitan area.
Here is a picture from the Wisconsin state fair posted Aug 25, 2010
Image

http://www.agriview.com/articles/2010/0 ... tock03.txt

the patient in Wisconsin became sick two days after attending a state fair where pigs were exhibited
http://www.cdc.gov/media/subtopic/heard.htm#h3n2

Both of the above comments were in CDC documents posted yesterday. The swine "contact" is far from clear. The WHO alert cited a 7 month old from Illinois, but the CDC noted that the case was reported by Wisconsin, suggesting that the child was an Illinois resident who attended the Wisconsin fair.

However, in either case it is unclear how close a 7 month old would get to swine at a fair where there were exhibits. Moreover, one statement from the CDC claims the "contact" was in the week preceding symptoms, while another statement says symptoms developed 2 days after "attending" a state fair.

Thus, the nature of the "contact", as well as the timing of the contact are far from clear.

The H3N2 cases have not been linked to ill swine, and most have no direct swine contact in the period preceding symptoms.

These five cases are in marked contrast to the Ohio outbreak at the Huron county fair in 2007, where H1N1 was isolated from the swine, an infected exhibitor, and her father. Those sequences were published and were identical, directly supporting transmission from swine to human(s). Two dozen fair attendees also reported flu-like symptoms (and like the Illinois and Wisconsin fairs, the exposure was in August).
http://www.huroncountyfair.com/2007pdf/ ... ule_07.pdf

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Last edited by niman on Sat Nov 13, 2010 10:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 9:58 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
PB2 polymorphism pedigree at GISAID

EPI283541 A/Managua/3225.03/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI282598 A/Managua/5273.02/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI282454 A/Managua/265.01/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI282238 A/Managua/5339.04/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI277646 A/Bishkek/WR0882N/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI275078 A/Managua/5364.01/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI257898 A/Guangdong-Chancheng/SWL51/2010 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI257302 A/Hunan-Hecheng/SWL1616/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI252551 A/Ontario/9739/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI249611 A/Managua/462.01/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI249025 A/Managua/1637.01/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI246449 A/Managua/3119.01/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI244298 A/Kansas/13/2009 (A/H3N2) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576
EPI211859 A/Brandenburg/20/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 1 (PB2) 27.0 5.63576

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 10:11 am 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 27323
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
PB1 pedigree at GISAID

EPI287515 A/swine/Guangdong/1222/2006 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI281294 A/swine/Kentucky/02086/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI259229 A/swine/Guangdong/1/2010 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI255734 A/swine/Hong Kong/NS1892/2009 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI255726 A/swine/Hong Kong/NS1890/2009 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI255718 A/swine/Hong Kong/NS1889/2009 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI255630 A/swine/Hong Kong/201/2010 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI255590 A/swine/Hong Kong/1435/2009 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI248352 A/Wisconsin/629-D02392/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI245293 A/California/VRDL78/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI244299 A/Kansas/13/2009 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI223654 A/Texas/45131774/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI222641 A/swine/Minnesota/07002083/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI179344 A/swine/NC/00573/2005 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI179336 A/swine/IL/00685/2005 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177847 A/swine/Minnesota/66727/2006 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177846 A/swine/Minnesota/3236/2007 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177833 A/swine/Minnesota/66960/2006 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177652 A/swine/Hong Kong/294/2009 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177636 A/swine/Hong Kong/1562/2005 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177628 A/swine/Hong Kong/915/2004 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177612 A/swine/Hong Kong/1110/2006 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI177588 A/swine/Hong Kong/NS623/2002 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI166260 A/swine/Minnesota/SG-00237/2007 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI126579 A/swine/Missouri/2124514/2006 (A/H2N3) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI120024 A/swine/Guangxi/13/2006 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI34821 A/New York/669/1995 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000
EPI9447 A/Swine/Minnesota/55551/00 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 56.5 0.00000

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