Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

There have been hundreds of media reports in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan on a WHO pager alert on a novel swine triple reassortant in two patients in the United States. One is a seven month old child in Illinois, while the other is a 46 year old male in Pennsylvania. The Pensylvania case is noted in tomorrow's MMWR.

I started this thread to focus the discussion on the likelihood that these two cases signal a swine H3N2 pandemic. Please post relevant reports, including links here.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

The CDC's MMWR (week 44 dated November 12, 2010) with a table of notifiable diseases notes the novel H3N2 case in Pennsylvania

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtm ... mm5944md_w

The PA case brings the number of cases in the 2010 MMWR to two.

The earlier case was first noted in June 2010, but was NOT current in June 2010. It is likely in reference to a January 2010 report of a novel H3N2 cases in an adult in Iowa (who was not hospitalized) reported in the CDC's week 1 and covered in multiple media reports.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

One of the MANY media reports in eastern Europe:

According to WHO, the U.S. identified a new flu virus H3N2 - Onishchenko
Moscow. November 10. INTERFAX - Russian doctors have received information about the appearance in the world of a new influenza virus.

“We got the message - disturbing information on the paging system of the World Health Organization - that in the U.S. for two people the virus H3N2″, - told Interfax “the head of Rospotrebnadzor, chief state sanitary doctor Gennady Onishchenko.

“This mutation Influenza swine origin”, - said Gennady Onishchenko.

He said that the new flu is a triple-reassortant - is at once the three viruses that had previously been circulated. “It consists of three pieces of the former viruses. But it is different in genetic structure. We are studying this information,” - said Gennady Onishchenko.

Earlier, doctors said that the swine flu outbreak in the Northern Hemisphere, which was awarded last autumn-winter period, has remained a dangerous mutation.

According to Gennady Onishchenko, the first case of a new flu detected in 7-month-old baby in the U.S. in Illinois, the second - a 46-year-old man in Pennsylvania.

Onishchenko said that Russian doctors will ask the U.S. experts about the new virus.

Head of Rospotrebnadzor said that the situation with influenza and acute respiratory infections in Russia is currently not cause alarm. Incidence in all Russian regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, is below the epidemic threshold.

Onishchenko said that seasonal flu shots this fall, made more than 21.7 million people. First of all vaccinations are representatives of the so-called “vulnerable” categories - children, pensioners and social workers.

http://americanews.ru/en/h17/14357.html

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Initial Recombinomics commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11101 ... PA_IL.html

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Latest Recombinomics commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11111 ... lenge.html

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www.twitter.com/hniman

The citing of two cases (7 mo in IL and 46M in PA) in a WHO pager alert strongly suggests that these two cases involve a similar swine H3N2 reassortant. Such infections in humans are rare. The last reprt in the US was a case in Iowa who was infected over a year ago (September, 2009).

Two recently described cases in the US, located over 500 miles apart, would represent a strong indication of an H3N2 pandemic if these two cases involve a gentically similar H3N2 and are not closely linked to each other by contact.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

It is worth noting that swine H3N2 has human H3 and N2 genes. Therefore, most assays that identify H3N2 would not make a distinction between seasonal H3N2 and swine H3N2.

The recent outbreak at a psyciatric ward in Akita, Japan has led to at least 8 fatalities. the outbreak is linked to the "Hong Kong" strain, which is H3N2 (which caused the 1968 pandemic commonly called the "Hong Kong flu").

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11091 ... ita_8.html

The H3 subtyping of the outbreak in Japan would not distinguish a new seasonal H3N2 strain from a triple reassorted swine H3N2, since both would have human H3 and N2.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

It is worth noting that some anonymous posters are claiming that swine H3N2 would not be a pandemic strain (which was also claimed for the H1N1 pandemic, which is nonsense). However, there has never been a report of SUSTAINED transmission of swine H3N2 in humans.

Therefore, sustained transmission of swine H3N2 would be a novel serotype and would be a pandemic, although WHO and CDC might try to come up with some ad hoc argument, based on POLITICAL considerations.

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Actually the cases of swine H3N2 in humans is much lower than swine H1N1 in humans prior to the 2009 pandemic.

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You have gone mad. Your now arguing with yourself !!!

The great new flu pandemic based on a couple of obscure russian media reports. Novel H3N2 looks real enough but forget about waiting for some more data to support your cause.

Niman Inc fans will be lapping this up. It's bunker time. Check those tin rations. Good Grief.