Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Mill Hill has released sequences from late 2009 at GISAID. D225G and D225N were found in Germany, France, and Iran.

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My theory is that the last northern hemisphere wave brought these out but not widespread ie by numbers infected, but by selection the next wave (down south) may see these in full force.

Thoughts?

Correct. That is what happened with H274Y in H1N1 seasonal flu. It was at various levels in the northern hemisphere in 2007/2008, but emerged in the southern hemisphere in 2008 and went to 100% (no competing genomes). It then went to 100% in the northern hemisphere in 2008/2009.

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Thanks.

Then this would predict a perhaps mild southern wave to start with, getting increasing bad, then a nasty northern third wave?

The number of new Mill Hill HA sequneces is now about 100.

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Actually, the total is closer to 140 new sets of sequences.

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Low reactors (changes at positions 157, 158, 159) as well as D225G and D225N are widespread and increasing in Europe.

Most of the low reactors are mixtures of D158E and, like D225G, are on multiple backgrounds of the more recent isolates (late 2009 or 2010).

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05061 ... pe_LR.html

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As normal none of this is of any real concern to the WHO or the CDC until we see ''Bodies in the Street"