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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 6:30 pm 
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The latest ECDC has a table of 19 SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) cases, which are generally influenza. Of the 19 cases, 5 had received the pandemic vaccine. This number would suggested widespread vaccine failure. The table was presented without comment

Table 11: Number of SARI cases by vaccination status, week 07/2010
Vaccination Status
Number Of CasesPercentage of cases
Both, seasonal and pandemic vaccination 4
Not full pandemic vaccination 0
Not vaccinated 11
Pandemic vaccination 1
Seasonal vaccination 1
Unknown 2
TOTAL 19

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWFiles2010 ... report.pdf

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 6:50 pm 
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Of the 19 SARI cases, 4 had received the pandemic and seasonal flu vaccine, while another had received the pandemic vaccine. This high percentage of severe cases who had previously been vaccinated raises concerns that the small number of cases being reported in Europe are largely made up of H1N1 that is no long recognized by the H1N1 vaccine, which had about 5 HA diffeences with the dominant H1N1 sequence.

These differences in California/7 set the stage for significant vaccine escape and raise concerns that the use of a California/7 based vaccine will have reduced efficacy.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:08 pm 
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niman wrote:
Of the 19 SARI cases 4 had received the pandmeic and seasonal flu vaccine, while another had received the pandmeic vaccine. Thus high percentage of severe cases who had previously been vaccinated raises concerns that the small number of cases being reported in Europe are largely made up of H1N1 that is no long recognized by the H1N1 vaccine, which had about 5 HA diffeences with teh dominant H1N1 sequence. These diffeences in California/7 set the stage for significant vaccine escape and raise concerns that the use of a California/7 bases vaccine will have reduced efficacy.


This also raise concerns that the vaccine does not protect one from having a more severe case. Contrary to what I've been told by more than one medical doctor.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:25 pm 
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From memory, Australia and the USA are using similar vaccines by injection (except for your "live" mist one) while in Europe they are using ones with adjuvants.

Could this be a factor ie the adjuvant are less effective?


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:32 pm 
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Gator Flu Watcher wrote:
niman wrote:
Of the 19 SARI cases 4 had received the pandmeic and seasonal flu vaccine, while another had received the pandmeic vaccine. Thus high percentage of severe cases who had previously been vaccinated raises concerns that the small number of cases being reported in Europe are largely made up of H1N1 that is no long recognized by the H1N1 vaccine, which had about 5 HA diffeences with teh dominant H1N1 sequence. These diffeences in California/7 set the stage for significant vaccine escape and raise concerns that the use of a California/7 bases vaccine will have reduced efficacy.


This also raise concerns that the vaccine does not protect one from having a more severe case. Contrary to what I've been told by more than one medical doctor.


Hm, does this mean that it has mutated (perhaps in little ways) far more than anyone predicted?

If the vaccine is less effective, that's one thing but this suggests that it's close to useless.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 8:05 pm 
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Dingo wrote:
Hm, does this mean that it has mutated (perhaps in little ways) far more than anyone predicted?

If the vaccine is less effective, that's one thing but this suggests that it's close to useless


Well, I have little faith in it due to my own personal experience. My son was vaccinated in early November and got the swine flu in early January. BUT, I'm told he may have gotten a less severe case because of the vaccine, so I can hold on to that, I suppose.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:42 pm 
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Gator Flu Watcher wrote:
Dingo wrote:
Hm, does this mean that it has mutated (perhaps in little ways) far more than anyone predicted?

If the vaccine is less effective, that's one thing but this suggests that it's close to useless


Well, I have little faith in it due to my own personal experience. My son was vaccinated in early November and got the swine flu in early January. BUT, I'm told he may have gotten a less severe case because of the vaccine, so I can hold on to that, I suppose.

Did he get the nasal spray or the injection ? The spray has D225N & the injection has 225D. So if D225N is a low reactor then it wouldn't provide protection from the referance strain (cal07) & the injection wont provide protection from D225N. As was shown with people that had the spanish flu in 1918-1919. They still have antibodies aganst it. The same hold ture for the vaccines in most cases.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:14 pm 
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Dingo wrote:
Gator Flu Watcher wrote:
niman wrote:
Of the 19 SARI cases 4 had received the pandmeic and seasonal flu vaccine, while another had received the pandmeic vaccine. Thus high percentage of severe cases who had previously been vaccinated raises concerns that the small number of cases being reported in Europe are largely made up of H1N1 that is no long recognized by the H1N1 vaccine, which had about 5 HA diffeences with teh dominant H1N1 sequence. These diffeences in California/7 set the stage for significant vaccine escape and raise concerns that the use of a California/7 bases vaccine will have reduced efficacy.


This also raise concerns that the vaccine does not protect one from having a more severe case. Contrary to what I've been told by more than one medical doctor.


Hm, does this mean that it has mutated (perhaps in little ways) far more than anyone predicted?

If the vaccine is less effective, that's one thing but this suggests that it's close to useless.

The first major problem is the selection of California/7. It has 5 differences or more with the vast majority of H1N1 isolates, becasue it represents a rare sub-clade. The antigenic characterization tests are relative insensitive, so the other isolates appear OK, but they are right at the brink of becoming a low reactor. Thus, a single change linked D225G or G158E creates a low reactor, which creates significant vaccine failure.

Moreover, the virus evolves away from the immunity generated in the first two waves, and in doing so, creates a more virulent strain (which likley has D225G/N), leading to more severe cases like the latest SARI cases.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:22 pm 
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G-2 MBG wrote:
Did he get the nasal spray or the injection ? The spray has D225N & the injection has 225D. So if D225N is a low reactor then it wouldn't provide protection from the referance strain (cal07) & the injection wont provide protection from D225N. As was shown with people that had the spanish flu in 1918-1919. They still have antibodies aganst it. The same hold ture for the vaccines in most cases


He received the injection. He also was diagnosed (untested) with swine flu in October. He got the seasonal vaccine in September.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:27 pm 
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niman wrote:
The first major problem is the selection of California/7. It has 5 differences or more with the vast majority of H1N1 isolates, becasue it represents a rare sub-clade. The antigenic characterization tests are relative insensitive, so the other isolates appear OK, but they are right at the brink of becoming a low reactor. Thus, a single change linked D225G or G158E creates a low reactor, which creates significant vaccine failure.

Moreover, the virus evolves away from the immunity generated in the first two waves, and in doing so, creates a more virulent strain (which likley has D225G/N), leading to more severe cases like the latest SARI cases.


Thanks.

Are you saying that California/7 wasn't a good choice in the first place (relatively rare), regardless of any subsequent mutations?

If so so, someone's made a real bad error and we are really facing this with no real vaccine.

Does this also explain why vaccine made from the 1918 flu works better against current swine flu than the California/7 based vaccine?


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