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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:48 am 
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Hogweed wrote:
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
It is worth noting that the above site is focused on D225E. However, D225N may be a bit more relevant since it is the change that led to the expansion of H3N2 with amantadine resistance.

It is in three swine flu isoltes including two fatal cases in Brazil collected in August

D225N
gb|GQ915021.1| Influenza A virus (A/Sao Paulo/53845/2009(H1N1... 36.2 0.75
gb|GQ915020.1| Influenza A virus (A/Sao Paulo/53838/2009(H1N1... 36.2 0.75
gb|CY045061.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/4099/2009(H1N1))... 36.2 0.75


Looks like they did a post on the Brasil cases.

http://pf11.blogspot.com/2009/09/brasil ... -from.html

2009-09-17
Deaths in Brasil Match 1918 and H5N1 Receptor Binding Domain at HA 225G

Within 9 Sao Paulo sequences released today from Brasil spanning late July to mid August 2009, we find at least 6 distinct HA backgrounds of which 5 are compelling and 2 are novel to the PF11 reservoir. Sequences from potentially expired patients are indicated boldly. This level of genetic diversity at key antigen sites on the Hemagglutinin (HA/H1) in a single geography during a common timeframe is of great interest and, at a minimum, reflects regional Acquisition Acceleration.

Bear in mind that in the early stages of the pandemic, PF11 exhibited extreme stability demonstrating 100% homology across entire countries. You will find in the early record several groups of more than 400 HA and NA sequences across diverse geography that match exactly. We are now in a new phase as the PF11 reservoir has been passaged within humans through one winter cycle in the Southern Hemisphere and has demonstrated the ability to rapidly gain beneficial genetic traits, traits that drive toward fatal outcomes.

Background1
SaoPaulo53823
2E
188I
296H

The presumably fatal case appears to be the first instance of 188I on a PF11 background. Human-fit Seasonal Influenza from 2007, 2008 and 2009 as well as the 2001 HKswNS1569 carry 188I, including ShanghaiLWS1 with the M230I RBD polymorphism. Movement at 188 to Asparagine (N) has occured in NY3502, Utsunomiya01 and Utsunomiya02.

Background2
SaoPaulo53838
2E
225N
296H

Background3
SaoPaulo57831
2E
296H

Backgrounds1, 2 & 3 continue the PF11 Intra-Segment exclusivity of 206T and 296H though proximal donors of 206T are available.

Background4
SaoPaulo53845
206T
225N

In addition to these two specimens from Brasil, 225N is found only on one other PF11 sequence, NY4099. Several Korean swine carry the change. More importantly, a linked candidate, A/swine/Hong Kong/NS1659/2001, featuring widely in PF11 Genetic Acquisition paths also carries 225N. HKswNS1659 shows HA:188I, 189T, 252M & 261K with additional matching to the 2008-2009 Seasonal Influenza NA Triple Combination, 106I, 248N, 286G.

Background5
SaoPaulo53206, SaoPaulo53225
206T
225G

Receptor Binding Domain changes at 225 may be correlative to fatal outcomes in Brasil as 100% of these cases appear to have expired (4/4). However, the RBD change may not be a requirement for fatality in SaoPaulo. Of three cases carrying only the 206T revision, one (SaoPaulo54392) appears to have expired.

225G is consensus for H5N1, is carried on NewYork1918 and only appears in six other PF11 sequences across the US and Mexico.

MX3955
MXInDRE4114
NY04
GA01
TX05
TX11

225X is demonstrated several times in the US proximal to 225G in area and time.

NY11
NY31
TX10
CA13
NE02

All four isolates from Brazil with position 225 changes were from necropsy tissue, indicating the infections were fatal.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:10 pm 
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Posts: 968
Cascadians wrote:
I've read articles yea and nay about cold affecting a person's health status and ability to fight off infections. I think it is worth paying attention to. From what I've seen, cold definitely can bring on "colds" or make them worse, but these observations are with the elderly population.

With utilities up and running and the ability to keep a house and office and car comfortably warm many ppl don't give it much thought. I live near Portland, Oregon and sometimes it can get really cold here. Last winter was brutal. Storms often involve lots of wind and rain, and last year snow and ice. These can bring the power down. The odds are high each year that the power will go off long enough to get cold. This year that means during H1N1 pandemic. And I know healthcare ppl here that worry this will make them more susceptible.

Ukraine and surrounding areas get cold and have heating supply problems and economic difficulties. So this seems a reasonable factor in the timing and level of their collective illness. Not the only cause but a factor. I'm aware there are studies that refute this. But I'm going to go with my own observations and think cold is a factor that cannot be ignored.


I agree with you; we accept that heat is a stressor and can even be deadly, but have become dismissive that becoming chilled is. Sometimes the folk wisdom is wise.
[I'm even sensitive to lack of sunlight--fortunately my dr. is too, so he understands].


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:16 pm 
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http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251


The WHO: Residents of Lviv sick A/H1N1

08.11.2009 16:16

Living in Lviv, which are located in Lviv hospitals are all signs of influenza A/H1N1.

The statement was made in Lviv team leader of the World Health Organization, an expert on intensive care Simon Merdel The WHO second day of the monitored situation in Lviv hospitals.

In Lviv arrived WHO experts on epidemiology, as well as clinicians. On Thursday they visited the city hospitals, and on Friday worked in the regional. The experts interacted with the medical staff, patients, view the history of disease, were interested in treatment regimens, as new and effective methods for the introduction of WHO to adopt in other countries.

Influenza A / H 1 N 1 is easy

Communication with the media specialists of the World Health Organization generally avoided. It was possible to speak to them in the Regional Hospital. The team leader, a clinician Merdel Simon noted that a large percentage of critically ill in the Lviv region is a consequence of the fact that people are too late appealed to doctors engaged in self-medicate, so their condition deteriorated. Pre-analyzing the course of the disease in humans, WHO experts have stated that it is mostly all the signs of influenza A/H1N1.

"We have no reason to doubt that this clinic influenza A/H1N1. The same as in the world, is typical of the disease, as everywhere. Where could take in Ukraine, the term "pneumonic plague"? I do not understand. For most people influenza A/H1N1 is easy. Therefore use the term to be properly and carefully, be careful. When talking about a new type of influenza, its course in patients with mild, when about pneumonia - is another. From a complication of viral pneumonia minimal ", - said the WHO expert Simon Merdel.

However, if the virus is the so-called swine flu passes without complications, then why are so many residents of the area suffer from pneumonia, with the severe form? While the answer to this question did not receive Radio Liberty.

Actually, WHO experts were interested in all seriously ill with pneumonia, a disease in which began the same way - with shortness of breath, severe weakness, changes in skin color. Today in the Lviv region suffer from some 140 thousand people, but what percentage of them diagnosed with pneumonia and influenza is unknown.

45 people for 10 days died. During the autopsy, in many of the dead patalogoanatomy found that the lungs like "burnt".

In Lviv confirmed 10 cases of "swine flu"

According to recent reports of Lviv Oblast sanepidservice in the area confirmed 10 cases of so-called swine flu: 8 people who have died and two people were treated in hospitals. One patient with a diagnosis of a new type of flu has already returned home.

The WHO analyze the situation that prevailed in the Lviv region. On Saturday they will hold a seminar for health workers and provide its recommendations, such as for medical professionals and people around the world. They asked medical personnel to wear protective masks, wash hands, going from one patient to another. Everyone, experts note, during the epidemic, as often as possible to wash their hands and in the crowded field protective masks.

Concerning the drug "Tamiflu", then according to experts, it should be given only to patients with serious infections. This drug Lviv hospitals enough.

On Friday, Polish epidemiologists concluded to take samples of patients in hospitals. They promise three days to inform doctors about the main results of research on what exactly the virus get sick residents of the area. And they are expected as physicians, so patients and their relatives.

Today in the Lviv region became ill about 140 thousand people, 45 people died. During the week the incidence remains strong, and growing.

Galina Tereshchuk, Radio Liberty

Lvivska Newspaper

======

[Note: Slight spelling in above report - the name of the WHO expert is actually Dr Simon Mardel not Merdel.]


Last edited by Hogweed on Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:27 pm 
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Posts: 587
Location: Netherlands
Hogweed wrote:
http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251


The WHO: Residents of Lviv sick A/H1N1



My opinion about this is.
There is only a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and there is no mutation of anny kind found.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:29 pm 
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Posts: 27289
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Hogweed wrote:
http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251


45 people for 10 days died. During the autopsy, in many of the dead patalogoanatomy found that the lungs like "burnt".

In Lviv confirmed 10 cases of "swine flu"

According to recent reports of Lviv Oblast sanepidservice in the area confirmed 10 cases of so-called swine flu: 8 people who have died and two people were treated in hospitals. One patient with a diagnosis of a new type of flu has already returned home.

======

The finding of "burnt" lungs in many is key. Anyone paying attention knows that the VAST maority of the almost 1 million REPORTED cases are H1N1 and most survive. It seems that those reporting still have a FUNDAMENTAL misunderstaning of swine flu and symptoms.

So far it is classical swine flu spreading quickly and producing an unusually high number of fatal cases.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:33 pm 
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Location: Northern California
Where are the sequences so that you will know that?


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:36 pm 
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ms4920 wrote:
Where are the sequences so that you will know that?

Mill Hill

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:42 pm 
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[Hogweed wrote:
http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251 from some 140 thousand people, but what percentage of them diagnosed with pneumonia and influenza is unknown. ]

45 people died
45/140,000 x 100 = 0.0321 or about the same cfr as everywhere else in the world.

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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:58 pm 
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Posts: 1533
Location: Northern California
G-2 MBG wrote:
[Hogweed wrote:
http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251 from some 140 thousand people, but what percentage of them diagnosed with pneumonia and influenza is unknown. ]

45 people died
45/140,000 x 100 = 0.0321 or about the same cfr as everywhere else in the world.

Actually there have been 144 people only 45 with burnt lungs. so the calcs have to be done over. Sorry


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 Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:09 pm 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 27289
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
G-2 MBG wrote:
[Hogweed wrote:
http://www.2000.net.ua/news/43/143056
Translated link http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... ndows-1251 from some 140 thousand people, but what percentage of them diagnosed with pneumonia and influenza is unknown. ]

45 people died
45/140,000 x 100 = 0.0321 or about the same cfr as everywhere else in the world.

So are you predicting that all of the 140,000 who are infected and still alive will survive (as indicated by your demoninator)? CFR's are based on OUTCOMES. In California, 11% of those hospitalized with H1N1 die. So are those in Ukraine and hospialized going to MUCH better than California??????????

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