Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Unfortunately that is what is happening now. This is just a rumors, but they say as for now there is no way to treat that "virus pneumonia" from which people are actually dying. But this is just a rumors, we will probably know exact information later.

Please tell me the last time there were 90000 ill reported by the health ministry of Ukraine in Lviv Region with ILI/ARI? I think you will find it was never (well since the last pandemic).

And again I repeat that the same total figures are being widely quoted in Ukranian news reports as suspected cases - why are you singling out this forum for criticism? If the Ukranian Health Ministry believes these figures to be misleading then they can remove them and only update a subset of cases. Which would make things look even more frightening.

You know that "viral pneumonia" is well known to be caused by swine H1N1 don't you? You don't need an unknown virus to cause that. In fact an increase in viral pneumonia has been noticed in other places recently including the UK where it has been sequence confirmed as swine H1N1.

Again your are misinterpreting government information. 90000 of ill on influenza, ARI and other illnesses, but not ill with N1H1 only. This is just simply government information. I am not going to speculate on a topic how true this information is.
"90000 quoted in Ukranian news reports as suspected cases" for N1H1? Even if so I would not believe it in the same way I do not believe in information for 90000 suspected cases of N1H1 in Lviv region. You see, I am not singling out this forum for that. This statement just has no confirmation. Why should I believe that either on your forum or in "some quoting reports"?

Yes. That is why I have said this is a rumour and repeated it twice. Either this or that way it does not fix misleading information. You are surely well informed, congratulations.

How about if I quote the International Society for Infectious Diseases (Pro-MED) and WHO?

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:2368957189219620::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,79908

Archive Number 20091102.3781
Published Date 02-NOV-2009
Subject PRO/AH/EDR> Influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (84): Ukraine, WHO


INFLUENZA PANDEMIC (H1N1) 2009 (84): UKRAINE, WHO
*************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Mon 2 Nov 2009
Source: World Health Organization (WHO), CSR, Disease Outbreak News [edited]
<http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_01/en/index.html>


On 28 Oct 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine informed WHO, through its
Country Office in Ukraine, about an unusually high level of activity of
acute respiratory illness in the western part of the country, associated
with an increased number of hospital admissions and fatalities.

On 30 Oct 2009, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine announced the
confirmation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection by RT-PCR in 11 out of
30 samples obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory illness
in 2 of the most affected regions. Tests were performed in 2 laboratories
in Kyiv, including the National Influenza Centre. Confirmatory tests will
be performed at one of the WHO Collaborating Centres for Influenza.

The situation is quickly changing with increasingly high levels of acute
respiratory illness (ARI)/influenza-like-illness (ILI) activity being
observed in Ternopil, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Chernivtsi regions. The
higher levels of transmission in these regions corresponds to an increased
number of hospital admissions and fatalities associated with severe
manifestations of acute respiratory illness.

As of 30 Oct 2009, over 2300 individuals have been admitted to hospital,
including over 1100 children. 131 cases have required intensive care,
including 32 children. As of 31 Oct 2009, a total of 38 fatalities
associated with severe manifestations of ARI have been registered.
Preliminary epidemiological data analysis indicates that severe cases and
deaths primarily occur among previously healthy young adults aged 20-50
years. Fatal and severe cases are reported to have sought medical attention
5 to 7 days after onset of symptoms.

International experience of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic to date, especially
from the Southern Hemisphere, has shown that poor clinical outcomes are
associated with delays in seeking health care and limited access to
supportive care. In addition, this virus has also shown its ability to
cause rapidly progressive overwhelming lung disease, which is very
difficult to treat.

Public health measures recommended by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine
across the entire country include: social distancing (school closures and
cancellation of mass gatherings); enhancement of surveillance activities;
increased respiratory hygiene; and continuation of the vaccination campaign
against seasonal influenza targeting at-risk groups.

The Government of Ukraine has activated coordination mechanisms to respond
to the rapidly evolving situation, including the harmonization of response
plans across all administrative levels. In response to the request from the
minister of health of Ukraine, WHO is deploying a multidisciplinary team of
experts to assist national authorities in mitigating the impact of the
pandemic. The team comprises the following expertise: health emergencies
coordination, case management, epidemiology, laboratory diagnostics,
logistics, and media/risk communications.

As per WHO's communication in May 2009, there is no rationale for travel
restrictions, because such measures will not prevent the spread of the
disease. Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple
recommendations aimed at preventing the spread of infection such as
attention to respiratory hygiene. Individuals who are ill should delay
travel plans, and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate
medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit
the spread of many communicable diseases and not only the pandemic (H1N1)
2009 virus.

--
communicated by:
ProMED-mail rapporteur Marianne Hopp

[This is confirmation by WHO that the outbreak of acute respiratory illness
throughout Ukraine is an extension of the global influenza (H1N1) 2009
pandemic. So far in Ukraine, 11 of 30 patient samples have tested positive
for influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. Confirmatory tests are in
progress in another WHO Collaborating Centre. As of 30 Oct 2009, a total of
2300 people (including 1100 children) have been hospitalised, and as of 31
Oct 2009, there have been 38 fatalities. The Ukrainian authorities seem to
have been unprepared for an outbreak on this scale, and WHO involvement in
the control of the outbreak will be considerable. No travel restrictions
are envisaged.

The locations of the most affected regions can be found using the
interactive map of the regions (oblasts) of Ukraine at:
<http://www.infoukes.com/ukremb/mappuzzle.html>. The HealthMap/ProMED-mail
interactive map of Ukraine can be accessed at:
<http://healthmap.org/admin/prolink.php>. - Mod.CP]

[see also:
Influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (81): Ukraine, conf. 20091101.3771
Influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (80): Ukraine susp. RFI 20091031.3764]

......................cp/msp/sh

Each data point has a link that descibes the data. Ukraine has been putting out 1 or 2 reports per day. There will be a more recent link in tomorrow's update, but the general picture is the same, except now the numbers are higher (70 fatalities and 255,504 cases). The totals, as seen in the linked table, represent influenza and ARI cases. The vast majority of ARI cases, influenza cases, and fatal cases are due to H1N1, which is widespread in teh Ukraine and throughout Europe and the world. We will be adding some ARI data from other European countries shortly.

These cases are discussed in detail on the Ukraine threads

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2474

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=2401

_________________
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The Ukraine situation will also be discussed in detail tonight at 11 PM EST (in 4 hours)

http://www.renseradio.com/listenlive.htm

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www.twitter.com/hniman

We used the confirmed/probable designation for lab confirmed cases (which at this time is VERY rare because most countries no longer test) and probable, which are ILI (or ARI) cases at times/areas where there is H1N1.

H1N1 has already been confirmed in "influenza" and "ARI" cases in Ukraine (hospitalized and fatal), therefore these cases are listed as "confirmed/probable". The linked table leaves no doubt as to what the figures represent and there is little doubt that the vast majority of such cases are H1N1. Currently there is virtually NO seasonal flu in Europe (which of course includes Ukraine and neighboring countries). The schools are being closed because of rampant H1N1 (which in most cases produces rather mild disease).

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H1N1 has already been confirmed in fatal cases in the Ukraine (and elsewhere). The samples were sent to London are to look at the sequence to see if there is an explanation for the high transmission and increased virulence of H1N1.

There is no doubt that these cases are from SWINE flu. The descriptions of fatal cases EXACTLY match such cases elswhere going back to March isolates from Mexico. The frequency and severity may be on the high side, but this is H1N1, without a doubt.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman