A (H1N1) epidemic may return to the wider
Published 10.12.2009 12.00
A (H1N1) epidemic is not over, despite the declining number of cases, whereas THL Research Professor Ilkka Julkunen.
No one can not estimate when the epidemic comes back to the wider. The greater the proportion of the population has escaped this time the disease or has not received the vaccine, the greater the likelihood that the disease returns again and felt more widely in Finland.
So far, Finland has laboratoria confirmed cases under 8 000. If the infected would be even ten times, the disease would have suffered a less than 2% of the population.
The remaining 98% of the population is dependent on the protective efficacy, Julkunen, calculate and point out that the vaccine has been ordered for all Finns.
The virus mutated about one per cent
The vaccine now in use is based in California in April 2009 in an isolated virus strain. In comparison, the world of mobile A (H1N1) virus strains, surface protein genes are not more than six amino acid changes. Between the positions so far has not yet significant differences.
Aminohappotasolla change corresponds to about one percent. Individual changes often coincide antigenically important regions, but since the structure of the molecule is only a few changes, the vaccine's protective immune so far is very good.
The early stages of the epidemic A (H1N1) virus muuntumisvauhti has been relatively slow. The population was not perusimmuniteettia, so the virus has been a great muuntumispainetta.
Now that the virus has toured the world for about nine months, it muuntumisnopeus it seems typical of influenza virus.
If a virus is converted to only about one percent per year, The protective efficacy of the vaccine can last for years and more, presents the current vaccine can also be useful for future periods during the epidemic.
Finland's oldest high degree of protection
Once acquired immunity can protect the people in quite a long time, despite the modification of the virus. THL collected in Finland in 2005, more than a thousand samples seerumimateriaalin different-aged people.
Elderly people, especially those over 80 years of age, immune status seems to be a good current A (H1N1) virus, which is likely due to the years 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic virus, or its immediate jälkeläisvirusten infections caused by momentum created by the immune protection.
Spanish flu virus and the current A (H1N1) virus (swine influenza virus) are different, about 17%.
Although the virus is so different, cross-protection is to some extent, exist. The world and in Finland for more than 65-year-olds A (H1N1) virus infections have been only 2-2.5%, compared with their proportion of the population is about 15%.
Drug-resistant strains to spread risk
The world has found dozens of oseltamivir-resistant A (H1N1) strains, but they have not yet began to spread more widely. Only one amino acid point mutation in the virus-neuraminidase protein can lead to the emergence of resistance.
- When treatment with oseltamivir, the quantity of virus in your body is falling faster than those without treatment. Oseltamivir-treated patients can be found at the end of therapy resistant to oseltamivir virusklooneja. At that point, the patient's amount of virus excretion is low and the spread of the infection probability is already relatively small.
H1N1-type seasonal influenza viruses resistant to oseltamivir developed world about 2-2.5 years. During the last epidemic of resistant seasonal flu strains amounted to almost one hundred percent.
The more you treat influenza caused by virus, oseltamivir, the more likely it is that the virus is converted to resistance. The Ministry's recommendations, according to risk groups and treatment of cases of severe infection, however, is highly recommended and is justified, as oseltamivir, has reduced the influenza-induced morbidity and mortality.
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