WHO is advising countries in the northern hemisphere to prepare for a second wave of pandemic spread. They advise countries in temperate parts of the southern hemisphere to remain vigilant. International experience has shown that localised "hot spots" of increasing transmission can continue to occur even when the pandemic has peaked at the national level.
So let's look at what happened in New Zealand in 1918http://www.nzhistory.net.nz/culture/influenza-pandemic
n the early 21st century anxiety over the danger of Influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 (avian flu) and more recently H1N1 (swine flu) has revived memories of New Zealand's worst disease outbreak, the lethal influenza pandemic that struck between October and December 1918. In two months New Zealand lost about half as many people to influenza as it had in the whole of the First World War. No event has killed so many New Zealanders in such a short time.
Many people believed that the severe form of influenza was caused by the arrival of ‘a deadly new virus’ aboard the Royal Mail liner Niagara on 12 October, but this is unlikely to have been the case. However the pandemic arose, by the time it eased in December the death toll had topped 8600. Maori suffered heavily, with at least 2160 deaths. But death did not occur evenly either among Maori or New Zealanders as a whole: some communities were decimated; others escaped largely unscathed. The only places struck with uniform severity were military camps.
New Zealand had had active flu cases (probably similar to levels seen up to now) but it was only when deaths exploded in October that it was really noticed.
Australia also had Flu deaths put down to "normal flu" prior to noticably increasing in October (but still covered up) then exploding over the next few few months
South Africa also exploded in October and so on.
But now we are told that flu season in these countries has peaked and is over. Nobody told swine H1N1 that in 1918 unfortunately.