Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

News from Novosibirsk oblast and the capital city of Novosibirsk (population: 1,400,000), the third largest city in Russia behind Moscow and St. Petersburg and the largest city in Siberia. It is located in western Siberia not too far from the point at which Asian Russia meets European Russia (which seems to be the hardest hit area in Russia right now after the epidemic rate of infection slowed in western European Russia). It should be noted that the Novosibirsk oblast borders the Tomsk oblast which is also experiencing an epidemic outbreak as documented in this Asian Russia thread.

Although the rate of infection was down from the prior week, the oblast and the city continue to be above the epidemic threshold. Particularly hard hit are 7 to 14 year olds. In the oblast as a whole, the epidemic threshold is exceeded by all age groups. The city as a whole slightly exceeded the epidemic threshold, although the only age group above such threshold was the 7 to 14s which exceeded the threshold by 45.3%:

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1237879.html

Per week in the Novosibirskaya Oblast with influenza and [ORVI] fell ill more than 18,5 thousand people

In the week from December 14 to 20 the morbidity by influenza and [ORVI] in the territory of Novosibirskaya Oblast composed 69,1 for 10 thousand populations, with epidemic threshold 42,0. As on December 23 they reported to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news in the press service of the administration Of [rospotrebnadzora] for Novosibirskaya Oblast, it endured the sharp virus infections of 18.749 people against 24.414 on the previous week, including of children - 11.156 (59,5%). Exceeding [epidporogov] was observed in all age classes, the greatest exceeding was recorded at the age of 7-14 years. In Novosibirsk in the week were registered 11.427 patients with influenza and [ORVI], morbidity composed 81,8 to 10 thousand inhabitants with [epidporoge] of morbidity 79,6 (exceeding to 2,8%). Is noted the excess of the epidemic limit only among the children of 7-14 years to 45,3%. In the week among the inhabitants of city are registered 40 cases of influenza. Are hospitalized 199 fallen ill, in Vol. h. of children - 147. Counterepidemic measures in the establishments continue.

Wikipedia about Novosibirsk: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novosibirsk

Wikipedia about Novosibirsk oblast: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novosibirsk_Oblast

News from Krasnoyarsk Krai (Note: "Krai" refers to this area being a "federal subject". We in the US would refer to this area as a "state"). The Krasnoyarsk Krai is the second largest "state" in all of Russia, occupying 903,400 square miles and comprising 13% of the entire territory of Russia. The administrative center is the city of Kransnoyarsk.

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1237950.html

In by Krasnoyarsk Krai the confirmed 1 570 cases of the pig influenza In 24 territories of Krasnoyarskiy Krai the level of morbidity by influenza and [ORVI] is acknowledged [neepidemicheskim], they reported on December 23 [IA] REGNUM of the news in the territorial government. In a number of territories threshold crossing of morbidity by virus infections comprises less than 1%. The general indices of morbidity [ORVI] by influenza on the edge preserve exceeding the value of the epidemic threshold of Monday ([epidporog] of week) for 41%. The greatest quantity of those fallen ill is recorded in Krasnoyarsk. As of the morning on December 21 among the population of Krasnoyarskiy Krai is registered 1 570 cases of pandemic influenza, laboratory confirmed by detection the RNA of the virus of influenza A ([N]1N1), and eight lethal outcomes. In the establishments of public health of edge are expanded 1 876 cots for the method of patients with the influenza and [ORVI]. Reserve to the middle of December - 1 of 513 cots.

News from Ulan Ude in eastern Siberia near Mongolia. Epidemic threshold of influenza and "ORVI" (acute respiratory viral disease) is exceeded "2.5 times". 43 classes in 17 schools are closed (presumably because those particular classes had high absentee rates). It is hoped that the winter vacation starting on December 31 will result in the lowering of infection rates. Vaccinations against the "highly pathogenic influenza" are encouraged and parents who choose not to have their children vaccinated are making a mistake.

Note: almost all Russian articles make mention of modest numbers of H1N1 illnesses but far larger numbers of ORVI or acute respiratory viral infection. H1N1 numbers may be in the single digits while combined "influenza and ORVI" numbers may be in the thousands. It goes beyond "lab confirmed" rather than just "suspected" H1N1 as articles will often state something like "20 cases of H1N1, 8 lab confirmed and 5000 cases of inflenza and ORVI. It's as if "influenza and ORVI" are completely distinct from H1N1. Not sure why the Russians categorize it this way.

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1238040.html

[Epidporog] on the influenza and [ORVI] in Ulan-Ude is exceeded 2,5 times ([Buryatiya])

According to the information on December 22, in Ulan-Ude it is laboratory confirmed 519 cases of development of influenza A (H1N1), of them - 345 adult and 174 children. On the stationary treatment 25 people are found, in the past twenty-four hours with highly pathogenic influenza fell ill six people, they reported to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news in the press service of the city hall of the capital Of [buryatii] today, on December 23. As doctors report, not so many pig influenza, is dangerous, but the complications, caused by disease, in the first place, - pneumonia. Are until today registered 835 cases of pneumonia, on the stationary treatment (Note: intensive care?) are found 187 people. Epidemic threshold on the influenza and [ORVI] in the city is exceeded 2,5 times. Are closed 43 classes in 17 schools. Winter vacations in this year will begin on December 31, possibly, in the time of vacations morbidity among the schoolboys it will be lowered. Doctors imperatively recommend to townspeople the passing of vaccination against the highly pathogenic influenza, in the first place, to preschool childs and to schoolboys, to the frequently being ill children and by adult, to the citizens of the group of risk - to workers of the sphere of maintenance, transport, ZhKKh, etc. As considers the chief epidemiologist of the administration of public health of the administration of the city Of [alla] Of [zomonova], children necessary to inoculate against the highly pathogenic influenza, the position of the parents, who reject the inoculation, it is erroneous.

Wikipedia about Ulan-Ude: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulan-Ude

Update from Altai Krai, a federal subject (i.e., a "state") in the Siberian Federal District bordering Kazakhstan in south central Russia:

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1238174.html

New wave [ORVI] influenza in the Altai they expect at the end January According to the forecasts of specialists, in the territory of Altai Krai the second wave of morbidity [ORVI] by influenza is expected at the end January - February 2010. On this today, on November 24, to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news they reported in the press service of the administration Of [rospotrebnadzora] for region. As a whole, in the past week in the region are registered 15,8 thousand cases of development [ORVI] of influenza. In the comparison with the previous week reduction in the morbidity to 28% is noted. Since the beginning of September from sick [ORVI] is obtained by 731 positive material, from which 36% comprises the circulation of the pandemic virus of influenza [A]/H1N1/09; 36% - viruses of the seasonal influenza Of [a]3, [A]1, in; 28% - viruses of [negrippoznoy] etiology (adenoviruses, [rinosintitsialnye] viruses, parainfluenza).

Wikipedia about Altai Krai: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altai_Krai

Update from Chelyabinsk province. The rate of new infections has spiked upwards after students who had been in "quarantine" for a long period of time returned to school. Apparently, classes or perhaps even entire schools are now shut down after more than 15% of students are out sick. Because of the high level of new infections, the regional sanitory doctor insists upon the cancellation of the traditional New Years Day Grandfather Frost and Snow Maiden celebrations.

The sanitary doctor Of the [satinskogo] region insists on the cancellation of new-year morning frosts (Chelyabinsk reg.) In The [satkinskiy] region of the Chelyabinsk province they can abolish conducting children's new-year morning frosts. On this insists the main sanitary doctor Of the [satkinskogo] region Boris [Shamparov], they reported to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news on December 18 in the press service of district administration. " If situation with the morbidity of children in the educational institutions of region will remain so alarming, possibly, grandfather Frost [pridet] in guests to the children only of [domoy]" , it is said in the communication of the press service of administration. In The [satkinskiy] region to the quarantine are closed 33 classes even two schools. Those classes, where the number of those fallen ill exceeded 15% of the total number of students, are shut point. The new splash of morbidity occurred after children they began to again learn after long quarantine. In the administration Of the [satkinskogo] region they emphasized that the complications from the influenza are very heavy. The inhabitants of municipality houses with the least symptoms of disease imperatively advise to remain. The deputy chief for the [satkinskogo] administration for public health for medicinal guarantee Tamara Vlasov notes that the situation with the antiviral preparations in the drugstores was stabilized, their assortment was increased, in sale the face shields appeared. There are all necessary drugs, also, in the hospitals. Let us recall, after the renewal of occupations in the schools training establishments again began to be shut to the quarantine. Thus, are closed all schools in Troitsky the urban district, on one school in Troitsky and [Agapovskom] regions even two schools in The [miasskom] urban district. Furthermore, quarantine is declared in 193 classes 51 of school of region. Morbidity grows also in kindergartens - because of the influenza and [ORVI] are closed 4 groups in 2 children's pre-school educational institutions.

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I've moved the above information about the city of Chelyabinsk and Cleyabinsk province from the European Russia thread to this Asian Russia thread as it's really in Asian Russia by virtue of being located East of the Ural Mountains.

A December 24 update from Chelyabinsk province indicates that the nightmare continues. A mother of two children died. Two pregnancies were prematurely ended. One child could not be saved. The second baby "appeared to the light healthy" but is now fighting for its life on resuscitators. Notwithstanding diligent efforts, there has been only a minimal slowdown in children's infections as more than 500 children became ill during the past week. New Years frost celebrations will be limited and very much smaller in scale. Doctors say there has been nothing like this epidemic "in thirty years". Currently, "in the Chelyabinsk province in connection with the high level of morbidity among the schoolboys training process in 98 classes of 38 schools of 12 municipal formations of region is stopped."

Note: it's not surprising that such detailed information is given about "a mother of two children" and babies' fight for life. In Chelyabinsk, because of past nuclear accidents and dumping of nuclear plant waste into lakes and rivers, 50% of adults are sterile (links appear above). Child-bearing mothers and babies are precious.

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1238226.html

In the Chelyabinsk province of the pig influenza the woman died In the city Of [satka] of the Chelyabinsk province from the highly pathogenic influenza A (H1N1) passed away the woman of 29 years, the mother of two children. On this to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news on December 24 they reported in the press service of the administration Of the [satkinskogo] region. Also because of the influenza it was necessary to interrupt the pregnancy of two inhabitants of region. The life of not originated child one of them could not be saved. In the second woman the child appeared to the light healthy, now doctor- resuscitators fight for its life. The doctors of municipality emphasized that this epidemic of influenza as in this year, in Russia there were no years thirty. Authorities establish the fact that at the beginning new-year morning frosts to stop the propagation of the epidemic of influenza among the schoolboys and the pupils of kindergartens Of the [satkinskogo] region it did not succeed. In the week with influenza fell ill more than 500 children and tendency toward a decrease in the level of morbidity among the schoolboys only barely was outlined. In connection with this in the region conducting morning frosts and new-year holidays will be limited. On the order of the head Of the [satkinskogo] municipal region of Vladimir [Khlysty], conducting new-year holidays in the schools, the palaces of culture, the establishments of sport are permitted only for the students of one school with the participation of students not more than four class- complete sets (parallel classes or adjacent, for example, 5-6- y class). Morning frosts in kindergartens are passed without the participation of parent- spectators. Let us recall, in the Chelyabinsk province in connection with the high level of morbidity among the schoolboys training process in 98 classes of 38 schools of 12 municipal formations of region is stopped. In their number and The [satkinskiy] region.

Another bit of news from Chelyabinsk province. In 5 municipal formations in the province the level of morbidity continues to grow. "In all in the Chelyabinsk province for two" on December 22 and 23 (in all of the province for two days?....in 2 of the municipal formations of the province?), there were 9974 new cases of ORVI (i.e., acute respiratory viral infection). That's 21.8% down from the "analogous period from the previous week". Nevertheless, many school classes (in these 5 municipal formations?) are closed. And the province as a whole is still above the epidemic threshold.

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1238299.html

In 5 municipalities of the Chelyabinsk province of [rastet] morbidity by the influenza In five municipal formations of the Chelyabinsk province continues grow the level of morbidity by influenza. As they reported on December 24 to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news in the press service of the administration Of [rospotrebnadzora] for region, lift was fixed in The [kopeyskom] and by Yuzhnouralsk the urban districts, and also [Kusinskom], municipal The [nyazepetrovskie] and October municipal regions. In all in the Chelyabinsk province for two are from December 22 to 23 registered 9.974 cases [ORVI], which is lower than the level of the morbidity of the analogous period of the previous week by 21,8%. Nevertheless, because of the high level of morbidity training process is stopped in 48 classes of 18 schools of 9 municipal formations of region. Let us recall, in the Chelyabinsk province is exceeded epidemic threshold on the morbidity by influenza and [ORVI].

News from the Transbaikal region, generally in the Mongolian border area of Russia:

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1239129.html

In Transbaykal 57 people died of the pig influenza In the Transbaikal edge, due to the state on December 23, are registered 59 lethal cases from pneumonia, from which in 57 cases is obtained positive result for the virus of influenza A ([N]1N1). On this today, on December 28, reported the attorney of Transbaikal edge Vladimir [Falileev], answering a question of the visitor of the site [IA] of " [Zabmedia]". According to him, in all, according to the data on December 23, in the edge are registered 875 cases of the highly pathogenic influenza A ([N]1N1), confirmed laboratory, including among the children of up to 14 years - 209, the adolescents of 15-17 years - 67, adult - 599. Meanwhile as reports the boundary administration Of [rospotrebnadzora], on the stationary treatment they were on December 24 found 1.227 sick [ORVI], by influenza and pneumonia. For the hospitalization of patients in the edge are expanded 1.918 cots.

Update from Altai Krai, a federal subject of Russia (a krai) in the Siberian Federal District.

http://www.regnum.ru/news/1239197.html

In the Altai edge are registered 299 cases of disease by the pig influenza On December 28 in the Altai edge are registered 299 people, who fell ill with influenza [A]/H1N1. On this to the correspondent [IA] REGNUM of the news they reported in the press service of main administration for public health and the pharmaceutical activity. In the region is at present observed the decrease in the morbidity by influenza and [ORVI]. At the same time continues the realization of the complex of the diagnostic and treating, preventive and counterepidemic measures, directed toward the opposition to propagation of pandemic influenza. As already previously they reported, according to the forecasts of specialists, in the territory of Altai edge the second wave of morbidity [ORVI] by influenza is expected at the end January - February 2010.

"In Transbaykal 57 people died of the pig influenza"

Population: 1,155,346 inhabitants
Density: 2.7 /km2 (7/sq mi)

Is this the highest death rate in this pandemic?

As you've correctly identified, "Transbaykal" or "Transbaikal" is a translation of "Zabaykalsky Krai" which is a federal subject of Russia (a krai). Wikipedia about the Zabaykalsky Krai, population 1,155,346, including its map:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zabaykalsky_Krai

I would hesitate to say that it's the "highest death rate in this pandemic". Russian rates of infection, hospitalizations, and deaths have likely been through the roof throughout the country. Schools in most areas either (1) closed for three weeks or more and then re-opened (mostly in western European Russia where the worst seems to have occurred in November), (2) closed for three weeks or more, re-opened, and then quickly shut down again after a surge in infections (like in "radioactive city" Chelyabinsk), or (3) have been closed and are still closed (as in Asian Russia where the outbreak is now at peak levels). And during the country's vacation period during the first week of January, schools (and many businesses, government offices, etc) will continue to be closed for yet another week.

Throughout Russia, people either had or have to abide by "the mask regime". In addition, traditional mass New Years celebrations (by far, the biggest holiday celebration of the year), involving Grandfather Frost and Snow Maiden and decorated fir trees, have in some cases been cancelled entirely or may be carried out in individual school rooms, only for children who have medical evidence that they're not infected, and parents will not be able to attend.

It's clearly bad there.

One thing to watch for as you're reading Russian reports is how statistics are often reported which pertain only to "laboratory confirmed" cases. For example, a city's or oblast's report might say that there have been 50 H1N1 cases, 25 lab confirmed, 15 dead of those confirmed, and 20,000 "influenza and ORVI" (the latter referring to "acute respiratory viral infection") cases. But there will often be no report on how many of the 20,000 influenza and ORVI cases may have died.

So who really knows what the death rate may be? To guage the severity of the outbreak, I'm just guided by how significantly people's lives have been changed.