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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:11 pm 
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Seattle60 wrote:
I am not saying it "cannot happen" I just feel that you are going way too far out of the box at this time. This is nothing new and it is very obvious that pigs were involved. There have been cases for years.
There is nothing new on the Influenza season, so lets ramp up a huge conspiracy.
After looking at posts, which are all yours, if this was a problem, do you not think you would have more people posting about this....

This is why I do not come here often.....But it is very amusing..

So do not get your flu shot this year as it wont be covered for TRH3N2.......Take your chances....

You clearly don't understand the sequences or the swine "exposure" issue. Maine has now confirmed that both cases are linked to the same fair and the 2 week gap between the disease onset dates for the two cases indicates at least one is NOT linked to the swine at the fair. Flu has a 2 day incubation period, not 2 weeks. The Fryeburg fair can be used to get a date for the first case, but not the second, and the ProMED denial of infected swine in New Hampshire also signals the Fryeburg fair (which is adjacent to the New hampshire border) as the source of the swine under investigation (which tested NEGATIVE for SOIV in initial tests).

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:26 am 
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niman wrote:
niman wrote:
I have a call in to make sure that the fair was not the Fryeburg fair, which had pig scrambles on Oct 7 and 9 (stll too early for the 2nd case who developed symptoms on Oct 22)

http://www.fryeburgfair.com/FRYEBURGFAI ... re2011.pdf

Video of Fryeburg Fair pig scramble in 2011 (including coughing filmer)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSECGUcId2E

Recombinomics has discussed the Maine cases with the Maine CDC and Maine Department of Agriculture who have confirmed that both cases were linked to the same fair, which is almost certainly the Fryeburg Fair based on dates, comments from ProMED, and a preponderance of evidence. The Fryeburg fair ended Oct 9, while disease onset for the second Maine case was October 22, too late for the swine "exposure" at the fair.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:32 am 
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More on Fryeburg fair (near New Hampshire) and coughing video

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7712

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 11:22 am 
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Maine CDC confirmed that both trH3N2 cases attended the same fair and the second case participated in a pig scramble. This case had further swine contact after the fair, but the subsequent swine contacts were asymptomatic.

Thus far all testing on symptomatic swine have been negative.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:26 pm 
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Detail on Indiana case (59M - Veterinarian)

• An adult male developed fever, cough, shortness of breath, nausea, vomiting and body aches on October 20, 2011. The patient was hospitalized, but has been discharged and is recovered from his illness.
• The patient did not receive influenza antiviral medications.
• On October 22, 2011, a respiratory specimen was collected during hospital admission and after conflicting results were obtained at the hospital laboratory, the specimen was forwarded to the Indiana state public health laboratory.
• On October 28, 2011, testing at the Indiana public health laboratory indicated a likely swine-origin influenza A (H3) virus.
• The specimen was forwarded to CDC on October 29, 2011. On October 31, partial genome sequencing confirmed the virus as a swine-origin triple reassortant influenza A (H3N2) virus with the M gene from pH1N1.
• The patient reported exposure to pigs in the week prior to illness onset.
• No additional ill persons have been identified, but investigation is ongoing.
• There are no epidemiologic links between this case and the previous case identified in Indiana.

https://linksweb.oph.dhh.louisiana.gov/ ... 202011.doc

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:25 am 
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Week 45 MMWR on notifiable diseases running late

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.as ... wr_table=1

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.as ... wr_table=1

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:29 pm 
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niman wrote:
Week 45 MMWR on notifiable diseases running late

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.as ... wr_table=1

Veterinarian (59M from Indiana) still not in MMWR

Novel influenza A infection virus *** - 8 0 4 43,774 2 4 NN

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:23 pm 
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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11171 ... sting.html

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:15 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Seattle60 wrote:
I am not saying it "cannot happen" I just feel that you are going way too far out of the box at this time. This is nothing new and it is very obvious that pigs were involved. There have been cases for years.
There is nothing new on the Influenza season, so lets ramp up a huge conspiracy.
After looking at posts, which are all yours, if this was a problem, do you not think you would have more people posting about this....

This is why I do not come here often.....But it is very amusing..

So do not get your flu shot this year as it wont be covered for TRH3N2.......Take your chances....

Your comments are fed by the CDC "narrative" on "swine exposure". However, the CDC has yet to link a single 2011 trH3N2 case to swine positive for SOIV (which would then require the SOIV to be H3N2 and the H3N2 would have to be the novel constellation found in all 7 human cases). The "swine exposure" leads to trH3N2 TESTING, but it has NOTHING to do with trH3N2 TRANSMISSION.
The latest example from Maine is a case in point. He was tested with the new PCR kit, and gave a pattern for seasonal H3N2 (H3 positive and negative for both swine markers, H1 and NP), but was sent to the CDC because of swine "exposure" which included attendance at the Fryeburg fair, participation in pig scramble at fair, exposure to swine after the fair.

• On October 28, 2011, diagnostic testing at the state laboratory was weakly positive for influenza A (H3), but negative for swine-origin influenza targets. The specimen was forwarded to CDC.
• On October 30, 2011, partial genome sequencing confirmed the virus as a swine-origin triple reassortant influenza A (H3N2) virus with the M gene from pH1N1.
• The patient reported multiple instances of close contact with pigs where sick pigs were present.
• No other ill persons have been identified at this time and no human-to-human transmission of this virus is suspected.


However, the exposure at the fair was too early (on or befor October 9 with initial symptoms on October 22), and the post-fair exposures were to ASYMPTOMATIC pigs (which are NOT tested). Moreover, the symptomatic pigs at the fair were NEGATIVE for SOIV. Thus, there is NO credible data supporting the swine as the source of the trH3N2, which was virtaully identical for the two Maine cases, which were from cases who developed symptoms 2 weeks apart.
A "swine exposure exposed" commentary will be posted soon.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:25 am 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 49039
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
Seattle60 wrote:
I am not saying it "cannot happen" I just feel that you are going way too far out of the box at this time. This is nothing new and it is very obvious that pigs were involved. There have been cases for years.
There is nothing new on the Influenza season, so lets ramp up a huge conspiracy.
After looking at posts, which are all yours, if this was a problem, do you not think you would have more people posting about this....

This is why I do not come here often.....But it is very amusing..

So do not get your flu shot this year as it wont be covered for TRH3N2.......Take your chances....

Your comments are fed by the CDC "narrative" on "swine exposure". However, the CDC has yet to link a single 2011 trH3N2 case to swine positive for SOIV (which would then require the SOIV to be H3N2 and the H3N2 would have to be the novel constellation found in all 7 human cases). The "swine exposure" leads to trH3N2 TESTING, but it has NOTHING to do with trH3N2 TRANSMISSION.
The latest example from Maine is a case in point. He was tested with the new PCR kit, and gave a pattern for seasonal H3N2 (H3 positive and negative for both swine markers, H1 and NP), but was sent to the CDC because of swine "exposure" which included attendance at the Fryeburg fair, participation in pig scramble at fair, exposure to swine after the fair.

• On October 28, 2011, diagnostic testing at the state laboratory was weakly positive for influenza A (H3), but negative for swine-origin influenza targets. The specimen was forwarded to CDC.
• On October 30, 2011, partial genome sequencing confirmed the virus as a swine-origin triple reassortant influenza A (H3N2) virus with the M gene from pH1N1.
• The patient reported multiple instances of close contact with pigs where sick pigs were present.
• No other ill persons have been identified at this time and no human-to-human transmission of this virus is suspected.


However, the exposure at the fair was too early (on or befor October 9 with initial symptoms on October 22), and the post-fair exposures were to ASYMPTOMATIC pigs (which are NOT tested). Moreover, the symptomatic pigs at the fair were NEGATIVE for SOIV. Thus, there is NO credible data supporting the swine as the source of the trH3N2, which was virtaully identical for the two Maine cases, which were from cases who developed symptoms 2 weeks apart.
A "swine exposure exposed" commentary will be posted soon.

November 4 "Have You Heard?"
http://www.cdc.gov/media/haveyouheard/s ... irus2.html

Detailed CDC 2011 reports on trH3N2 cases for health professionals
http://www.dhh.state.la.us/offices/page ... etail=9732
Including November 4 report on the two most recent trH3N2 cases
https://linksweb.oph.dhh.louisiana.gov/ ... 202011.doc

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