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 Post subject: was that a pandemic ?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:07 am 
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or the "dead horse thread"

2009 looks more like 1977, which is usually not listed as
pandemic today, rather than like 1918,1957,1968

WHO wants to include virulence now into the pandemic definition.

If they do, may this 2009-event be cancelled out of the list
of official pandemics ?


]Wodarp link}

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:46 am 
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gsgs wrote:
or the "dead horse thread"

2009 looks more like 1977, which is usually not listed as
pandemic today, rather than like 1918,1957,1968

WHO wants to include virulence now into the pandemic definition.

If they do, may this 2009-event be cancelled out of the list
of official pandemics ?


]Wodarp link}

It's a pandemic. Swine H1N1 in humans hasn't been reported since the 1918 recombinants. It replaced seasonal H1N1. It is and was a pandemic.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:13 am 
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yes, 80%.
But who can be certain ?

old H1N1 is not replaced yet, it may return
(my probability ~20%)

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:53 am 
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gsgs wrote:
yes, 80%.
But who can be certain ?

old H1N1 is not replaced yet, it may return
(my probability ~20%)

Like it "returned" in 1977 after pandemics of 1957 and 1968?

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:04 am 
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or like it returned in 2006 after the Fujian semipandemic
2002-2004 which almost killed it


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:17 pm 
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~ why don't you cultivate some friends who work in Critical Care at your local hospital, and ask THEM if 2009 was a Pandemic... or not. Ask them if their hospital could handle a flu season more severe...

All because of HIPPA.... the American Public doesn't have a clue.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:34 pm 
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littlebird wrote:
~ why don't you cultivate some friends who work in Critical Care at your local hospital, and ask THEM if 2009 was a Pandemic... or not. Ask them if their hospital could handle a flu season more severe...

All because of HIPPA.... the American Public doesn't have a clue.

You are SPOT ON.

Ukraine went bonkers because previously healthy young adults were dying within days of admission.

GSGS' comparision of SWINE H1N1 to seasonal H1N1 in 1977, which had been circulating in humans prior to 1956, just demonstrates a FUNDAMENTAL lack of understanding of pandemics and influenza evolution.

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