Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

I estimate that less than 20% of H1 this season in USA was
that new strain

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

Based on what? You don't even look at most sequences. Chihuahua is dominant in mexico and areas south. It emerged late, as in herald wave.
You continue to post nonsense.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

based on submitted sequences
Mexico isn't really USA
Not much H1 in Southern USA

----edit----, I mean SW-USA,region 6,Texas
%of H1 in flu-A samples by US-region in 2010/1:
35,33,46,49,42,20,43,28,42,42

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

Google herald wave to get a clue.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Geography check. Pennsylvania is not in SW US. You have serious time and space issues.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

waiting for your estimate how many % of this season's H1 in USA was chi

no chi in Europe

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !

You really don't understand how influenza evolves and spreads.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

I gave the distribution of the Chihuahau sub-clade, which has recently emerged. All 3 positives in the latest series from the CDC were collected in March, bringng the total to 8 which are virtually identical to Mexico, 2 of the 8 are from PA as are 2 from TX. The other 4 are from NJ, MD, OR, UT so there is no concentration in the southwest.
Detection frequency is on the rise in Mexico, as the vaccination campaign fails and the H1N1 continues to follow an expansion pattern similar to 2009.

The new sequences were described earlier

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7133

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www.twitter.com/hniman

In Mexico, in EW 15, among all samples tested, the percent positivity for influenza viruses was ~14%, which was higher than EW 14 (9%). The predominant circulating respiratory virus has been influenza A/H1N1 2009 in the last 6 EWs,

http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option ... temid=1091

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www.twitter.com/hniman

You really don't understand what a "herald wave" is or why your question is irrelevant. The Chihuahua sub-clade has broken off into two branches in 2011. The branch in Mexico is also in the US and the 8 US sequences on this branch are NOT in southern or SW -USA. Two of the 8 are in Texas, but 2 others are in Pennsylvania. Moreover, both Texas and Pennsylvania have an earlier version isolated in 2010 (and the PA sequence has D225G). The other four sequences on this lower branch are from NJ, MD, UT, and OR, so they also are not concentrated in the south or southwest. All 8 of these sequences are from 2011 isolates, largely collected in Feb and March. Thus, they appeared at the END of the 2010/2011 flu season, which is why they are called a herald wave (they define what will dominate in the comming season).

As noted on the WHO update, this sub-clade (with D225N) was initially seen Ecuador in January, 2011. It has spread rapidly in Mexico and Venezuela and now is being reported at increasing frequencies in Central and South America.

That is the key data, NOT the frequency in the US in the 2010/2011 season or the frequency in the south or southwest.

That is also why your question (and estimate) indicates you have no clue, even after many posts and commentaries describing the issue, with supporting comments by WHO and the Air Force, no reassortment or fantasy odds/bets required.

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www.twitter.com/hniman