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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:40 am 
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Announcement almost exactly two years ago
http://new.paho.org/hq/dmdocuments/2009 ... ne-flu.pdf
On 18 April 2009, the National IHR Focal Point of the United States reported the laboratory confirmation of 2 human cases of swine influenza in two children of 9 and 10 years old living in the State of California (one in the County of San Diego and the other one in Imperial County).
To date, a total of 20 human cases of swine influenza have been confirmed in the United States (8 in New York, 7 in California, 2 in Texas, 2 in Kansas and 1 in Ohio). Other suspected cases are being investigated.
This virus has been described in the United States as a new subtype of A/H1N1 not previously detected in pigs or humans.
In addition, at the end of March 2009, Mexico observed an unusual pattern of acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases that increased even more in the first weeks of April. From 17 to 23 April, 854 probable cases of influenza with severe pneumonia were reported, including 59 deaths. The cases were recorded in 19 of the 32 states of Mexico, but were concentrated in the Federal District, State of Mexico, and San Luis Potosí, the majority of them in previously healthy young adult people. There have been few cases in individuals under 3 or over 59 years old. Samples were sent to a laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada, for analysis. In 16 of the 18 patient samples sent, infection by influenza was confirmed, 8 of them positive for H1N1. Genetic analysis of the latter indicated that they are similar to those isolated in the United States.
In Canada, 4 human cases of swine influenza H1N1 were confirmed in children from the province of Nova Scotia, some of them with a recent history of travel to Cancún. All the cases developed a mild form of the disease and are subsequently recovered. Laboratory tests were conducted in Winnipeg, Canada. Indigenous transmission has not been ruled out, since not all the confirmed cases travelled to Cancún.
In relation to laboratory results, in the two confirmed cases in the United States, virus A/California/04/2009 and A/California/05/2009 were isolated. They show a pattern of genetic reassortment of the America-Eurasia virus of the swine influenza type. This particular genetic combination had not been detected in the past. Both proved to be resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, oseltamivir, and zanamivir. Both have been cultured in MDCK cells and inoculated in ferrets for the production of antisera. The complete genome of the virus A/California/04/2009 has been published and is available in the database of the GISAID (www.gisaid.org). The viruses of 5 other confirmed cases correspond to the same new strain.
In summary:

There is evidence of circulation of a new strain previously undetected in pigs and humans.

Studies are being conducted in order to determine the extent of the human-to-human transmission.
Epidemiological Surveillance and Outbreak Investigation
In the United States, the confirmed cases of swine influenza (H1N1) in humans were identified in five states. Research is being conducted to determine the source of infection and if there are additional cases. All the cases were slight and evolved favorably. No previous contact with pigs was registered in any of the cases.
In Mexico, on the other hand, prevention and control measures are underway and include intensified surveillance activities. As a precautionary measure, the closing of day-care centers, schools, and universities was enacted in Mexico City. Similarly social and cultural activities were suspended for a period of 10 days.
This new subtype of the influenza virus could be circulating in swine population, a subject currently being reviewed and investigated.
International Health Regulations (IHR)
At the request of the Director-General (DG) of WHO, the IHR Emergency Committee has been summoned and is advising the DG on the event. On its first day of deliberation, 25 April, it concluded that the present event constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. To date, no temporary recommendations have been made. The Emergency Committee will continue to advise the DG on the basis of the available information.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:42 am 
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gsgs wrote:
started in Ecuador in Jan.2011 ?

then Venezuela (peak in early April), Mexico

but flu usually doesn't go South-America --> North America
but rather SE-ASia-North America

however, this is pandemic flu and we have April

Guess what H1N1 sub-clade was in Ecuador, Venezuela, and Mexico.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:44 am 
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niman wrote:
gsgs wrote:
started in Ecuador in Jan.2011 ?

then Venezuela (peak in early April), Mexico

but flu usually doesn't go South-America --> North America
but rather SE-ASia-North America

however, this is pandemic flu and we have April

Guess what H1N1 sub-clade was in Ecuador, Venezuela, and Mexico.

Guess which sub-clade in Ecuador, Venezuela, and Mexico had D225N (clue - no reassortment required).

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:48 am 
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For those who may have missed it:

It is recommended that all of the countries activate their National Preparedness Plans for the pandemic and follow the WHO and PAHO recommendations.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:02 am 
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gsgs wrote:
started in Ecuador in Jan.2011 ?

then Venezuela (peak in early April), Mexico

but flu usually doesn't go South-America --> North America
but rather SE-ASia-North America

however, this is pandemic flu and we have April

WHO did not issue a 2011 alert for the UK outbreak in the fall of 2010 or other outbreaks in the northern hemisphere in 2011. The PANDEMIC alert was issued for the Chihuahua sub-clade with D225N spreading in North and South America.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:07 am 
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maybe they always say this ?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:07 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
gsgs wrote:
started in Ecuador in Jan.2011 ?

then Venezuela (peak in early April), Mexico

but flu usually doesn't go South-America --> North America
but rather SE-ASia-North America

however, this is pandemic flu and we have April

WHO did not issue a 2011 alert for the UK outbreak in the fall of 2010 or other outbreaks in the northern hemisphere in 2011. The PANDEMIC alert was issued for the Chihuahua sub-clade with D225N spreading in North and South America.

The WHO April 6 head fake:

On March 24, Mexico, reported an influenza A outbreak in the state of Chihuahua (northern part of Mexico). Two cities are primarily affected: Juarez and Chihuahua. Between March 22 and April 4, there have been 142 cumulative cases of ILI and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) identified (24% of which were confirmed to be influenza A/H1N1 2009) and seven deaths (all adults, previously healthy, with the exception of one with COPD and one who was pregnant), of which six were confirmed to have influenza A/H1N1 2009. The Institute of Diagnosis and Epidemiological Reference (InDRE) of Mexico carried out genetic sequencing of the first three pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza cases (two fatal cases and one mild), and reported that the virus is homologous to the one that is currently circulating worldwide. Thus far, there is no evidence that the influenza strains identified have mutations that confer greater virulence or antiviral resistance. This outbreak occurred along the US-Mexico border region and has not been associated with excessive demand of the health services. In the rest of Mexico, isolated influenza A/H1N1 2009 cases have been reported, but there are no other outbreaks reported at this time.

http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option ... temid=2469

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:08 am 
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gsgs wrote:
maybe they always say this ?

What planet are you on?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:12 am 
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Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
gsgs wrote:
started in Ecuador in Jan.2011 ?

then Venezuela (peak in early April), Mexico

but flu usually doesn't go South-America --> North America
but rather SE-ASia-North America

however, this is pandemic flu and we have April

WHO did not issue a 2011 alert for the UK outbreak in the fall of 2010 or other outbreaks in the northern hemisphere in 2011. The PANDEMIC alert was issued for the Chihuahua sub-clade with D225N spreading in North and South America.

The WHO April 6 head fake:

On March 24, Mexico, reported an influenza A outbreak in the state of Chihuahua (northern part of Mexico). Two cities are primarily affected: Juarez and Chihuahua. Between March 22 and April 4, there have been 142 cumulative cases of ILI and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) identified (24% of which were confirmed to be influenza A/H1N1 2009) and seven deaths (all adults, previously healthy, with the exception of one with COPD and one who was pregnant), of which six were confirmed to have influenza A/H1N1 2009. The Institute of Diagnosis and Epidemiological Reference (InDRE) of Mexico carried out genetic sequencing of the first three pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza cases (two fatal cases and one mild), and reported that the virus is homologous to the one that is currently circulating worldwide. Thus far, there is no evidence that the influenza strains identified have mutations that confer greater virulence or antiviral resistance. This outbreak occurred along the US-Mexico border region and has not been associated with excessive demand of the health services. In the rest of Mexico, isolated influenza A/H1N1 2009 cases have been reported, but there are no other outbreaks reported at this time.

http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option ... temid=2469

Two weeks later:
http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option ... temid=2469
Since the beginning of 2011, in the region of the Americas, there have been significant outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) 2009, that while geographically limited, have generated a significant demand on health services.
For instance, there have been outbreaks in Ecuador (January 2011), Mexico and Venezuela (March 2011). In the past three weeks (SE 13-15), the Dominican Republic’s National Influenza Centre has detected an increase in the positive samples of influenza A(H1N1) 2009. In the last month, other sporadic detections have occurred in Cuba, Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica and El Salvador.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:14 am 
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Location: germany
what do you guess is the first occurrance of the Chi-strain ?

I have A/Germany/AF2207/2010/01/19 with
A142G,G536A,G607A,C681T,A957G

AF seems to be from an US-airforce base in Germany,
could have come from anywhere in the world

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