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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:30 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
assume there is an outbreak,


no new pandemic wave, many have immunity already.

One mutation in HA can't break this

it happened in Amerika, new waves usually start in Asia

it's summer
the new strain would be in competition to existing strains.
If it had an evoutionary advantage, why did it last so long
to develope ?
(2 years)



unless there is reassortment ...

You don't understand evolution at the BASIC level and your lack of understanding of influenza evolution is PROFOUND. The VAST majority of changes linked to immunological escape are due to changes in HA and NA, and the sequences of HA and NA in Chihuahua are published and have NO reassortment.
Please stop posting utter nonsense here.
Go back to your babble boards and parallel universe, where someone will believe your nonsense.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:36 am 
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I have amino acid changes K163N,S179N,A203T,S220T
(substract 14 to get your enumeration)

S220T is a Cancun-mutation, now in >99% of all mexflu viruses

S179N and A203T were seen in USA 2011 without much consequences

shall it be that one K163N ??


D225G happens on multiple backgrounds and is not
specific to this substrain (most samples of which don't have it)

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Last edited by gsgs on Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:41 am 
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most pandemics or new outbreaks or new waves are linked to reassortment,
which is a more dramatical change than just point-mutation
and may change the properties of a virus very much, i.e. transmissiability

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !


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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:54 am 
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Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
I have amino acid changes K163N,S179N,A203T,S220T
(substract 14 to get your enumeration)

S220T is a Cancun-mutation, now in >99% of all mexflu viruses

S179N and A203T were seen in USA 2011 without much consequences

shall it be that one K163N ??


D225G happens on multiple backgrounds and is not
specific to this substrain (most samples of which don't have it)

I use H3 numbering (which is used in most discussions of receptor binding domain changes). D225N is quite rare and not heavily concentrated on most sub-clade, but it is on the Chihuahua sub-clade. Evolution and selection involve combinations of changes.
You have no data on "consequences" in 2011 because you ignore the sequences at GISAID.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:55 am 
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gsgs wrote:

D225G happens on multiple backgrounds and is not
specific to this substrain (most samples of which don't have it)

Reading 101. D225N is not D225G (and Chihuahua sequences were direct and from the UPPER respiratory tract - D225N in pandemic H1N1 is at higher concentrations in lower respiratory tract).
You fail to understand the data at the MOST BASIC level, including the most relevant change.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:59 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
most pandemics or new outbreaks or new waves are linked to reassortment,
which is a more dramatical change than just point-mutation
and may change the properties of a virus very much, i.e. transmissiability

Please. You remain clueless. The Chihuahua sub-clade is emerging as a new wave with NO reassortment. Your lack of understaing of influenza evolution was a likely factor in your absurd posts two years ago when you claimed a 20% chance that the 2009 pandemic wan't a pandemic. You were clueless then and are clueless now.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:29 am 
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Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
I have amino acid changes K163N,S179N,A203T,S220T
(substract 14 to get your enumeration)

S220T is a Cancun-mutation, now in >99% of all mexflu viruses

S179N and A203T were seen in USA 2011 without much consequences

shall it be that one K163N ??


D225G happens on multiple backgrounds and is not
specific to this substrain (most samples of which don't have it)

I didn't say anything about S206T (your S220T), but have said quite a bit about D225N, so you talk about an irrelevant change and ignore the most fundamental change, D225N, which improves TRANSMISSION and is found at detectable levels in the UPPER respiratory tract in severe/fatal cases.

You either miss or misrepresent the most fundament change in the Chihuahua sub-clade. Anyone paying attention to the Chihuahua sub-clade has noted the high frequency of D225N in severe/fatal cases (and the frequency is even higher in withheld sequences). It has been mentioned in MULTIPLE commentaries (just google recombinomics and D225N).
You remain clueless, at best.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:34 am 
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> D225N, which improves TRANSMISSION

who else says this ? give a source

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:43 am 
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> D225N is not D225G (and Chihuahua sequences were direct and from
> the UPPER respiratory tract - D225N in pandemic H1N1 is at higher
> concentrations in lower respiratory tract).

yes, I thought you meant D225G. No D225G nor D225N at genbank
in Chi2

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:45 am 
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Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
> D225N, which improves TRANSMISSION

who else says this ? give a source

Please. D225N is on SEASONAL H3N2 and was involved in the fixing of adamantane resistance (S31N). This data is old and quite well known to those in the field (just google D225N and S193F).
You spend too much time on babble boards and in a parallel universe.
You lack of understanding of receptor binding domain changes is PROFOUND.

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