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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 4:42 pm 
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The state Health Department reported the death of a person with influenza A (H1N1) in the General Hospital of Ciudad Juárez, bringing the total to 12 deaths by the resurgence of the disease.

In a press release, it was reported that the person, male, belonging to the age group 25-44 years, died since last April 20 but till today the laboratories confirmed that the virus was mentioned.

He clarified that 13 deaths have been subjected to laboratory studies. Of these, only there is official confirmation of the presence of influenza virus in 12 people and one is discarded.

http://www.elarsenal.net/2011/04/24/sum ... chihuahua/

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 4:47 pm 
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Physician wrote:
I have some friends in Playas del Carmen, Mexico who have been very sick with flu-like symptoms in the last week and one of them got pneumonia and expectorated blood. Now, she's better but got a terrible cough.

Has this something to do with this outbreak of new H1N1?

Thanks

There is probably a link. There has been a resurgence of H1N1 in Mexico, and the dominant sub-clade has a high frequency of D225N. Some anecdotal reports describe nose bleeds in severe cases in northern Mexico (Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon), but this is the first case I've heard about in southern Mexico with expectorated blood (but the Chihuahua sub-clade is spreading rapidly).

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 4:50 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Physician wrote:
I have some friends in Playas del Carmen, Mexico who have been very sick with flu-like symptoms in the last week and one of them got pneumonia and expectorated blood. Now, she's better but got a terrible cough.

Has this something to do with this outbreak of new H1N1?

Thanks

There is more detail on cases in Mexico on this thread

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=6993

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 6:32 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04241 ... Spike.html

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:25 pm 
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Location: germany
niman wrote:



> Release of sequences from the 43 P&I deaths in weeks 14 and 15,
> as well as severe cases in El Paso would be useful.

most of these are probably just pneumonia, not flu (>95%)
no sequences. But many pneumonia deaths are supposed
to be flu-related. So, did they ever test for antibodies
in a study of pneumonia-deaths

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:32 pm 
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> So do you think the spike in ILI cases in the same area as
> the death cluster at the Juarez traffic department is a coincidence?

yes(70%). Doctors just send ILI-people to Aguilas or such.
Or a different registration system
Big decline in week 13, but many patients


If they had sent hundreds of travelers to Aguilas hospital for ILI,
they would have told us ?!?

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:00 am 
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gsgs wrote:
niman wrote:



> Release of sequences from the 43 P&I deaths in weeks 14 and 15,
> as well as severe cases in El Paso would be useful.

most of these are probably just pneumonia, not flu (>95%)
no sequences. But many pneumonia deaths are supposed
to be flu-related. So, did they ever test for antibodies
in a study of pneumonia-deaths

Please. The spike in pneumoinia deaths is due to to H1N1 and no samples were collected, which is true of the VAST majority of influenza (and H1N1 ) deaths. The background in April is in the single digits, a seen for weeks 14 and 15 in El Paso the pat 15 years,
You remain data analysis challenged.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:02 am 
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assume there is an outbreak,


no new pandemic wave, many have immunity already.

One mutation in HA can't break this

it happened in Amerika, new waves usually start in Asia

it's summer
the new strain would be in competition to existing strains.
If it had an evoutionary advantage, why did it last so long
to develope ?
(2 years)



unless there is reassortment ...

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:03 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
> So do you think the spike in ILI cases in the same area as
> the death cluster at the Juarez traffic department is a coincidence?

yes(70%). Doctors just send ILI-people to Aguilas or such.
Or a different registration system
Big decline in week 13, but many patients


If they had sent hundreds of travelers to Aguilas hospital for ILI,
they would have told us ?!?

You remain fixed on coincidences and lack the ability to analyze real data.

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 Post subject: Re: El Paso deaths
PostPosted: Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:07 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
gsgs wrote:
assume there is an outbreak,


no new pandemic wave, many have immunity already.

One mutation in HA can't break this

it happened in Amerika, new waves usually start in Asia

it's summer
the new strain would be in competition to existing strains.
If it had an evoutionary advantage, why did it last so long
to develope ?
(2 years)



unless there is reassortment ...

You remain as clueless as ever. The new sub-clade has multiple changes (K149N, S165N, A189T, D225N) and transmits readily, leading to record numbers of deaths in El Paso, as well as rapid spread throughout South America.
This is not your field. You just clutter threads with utter nonsense. The HA and NA sequences are PUBLISHED (and immunity is avoided by changing polymorphisms in HA and NA).

There is NO reassortment, your fantasy and clueless comments notwithstanding.

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