Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Please go away. The definition is at the bottom of the table with the data published by the New Mexico health department.

You are a fool!

You constantly quote ILI data and now that the DATA doesn't match your wacko posts, you claim the data is wrong! Just like the sequences that show you are posting nonsense.

This is a serious board. Please go to your babble board and stop polluting the board with your wacko comments.

You have ZERO credibility on sequences or any real data.

You live in a parallel universe. Please post there.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

hehe !!!

For those not following the latest series of absurd posts. New Mexico files weekly influenza reports on border actibuty. In the week 14 report

http://nmhealth.org/flu/documents/Weekl ... 1.Wk14.pdf

they show a dramatic spike in ILI activity for one region (Chihuahua CAAPS Águilas) in southeastern Juarez, The table reports on multiple areas and at the bottom of the table on ILI activity, they define ILI activity, which GSGS claims doesn't apply to the table because it doesn't match some wacko idea he has (like the ILI data is based on people complaining about flu symptoms and not a real, measurable symptoms).

Here is a paste of the table with the ILI definition below (which GSGS either didn't read or assumed it didn't appply because it didn't match his preconceived ideas - emphasis added for those who are reading challenged):

Summary of Border Influenza Activity in the Region of Southwestern New Mexico/Northern Chihuahua/West Texas for Week Ending 04/09/20111:
The border region includes 15 influenza sentinel surveillance sites within 100 kilometers (60 miles) of US/Mexico border. The sites reported a total of 4089 patient visits for the reporting period, of which 410 (10.0%) were positive for an influenza-like illness (ILI)2.
1Weekly ILI and lab data may change as additional reports are compiled and ongoing investigations are completed.
2Influenza-like Activity (ILI) is defined as Fever ( 100F [37.8 C], oral or equivalent) AND cough and/or sore throat in absence of a KNOWN cause other than influenza. Clinic Patients seen week ending: 04/09/2011 Patients with ILI this week (n; % of this week’s total): Patients with ILI last week (n; % of last week’s total):
Chihuahua CAAPS Águilas 552 355 64.3% 7 1.1% CAAPS Anapra 947 2 0.2% 1 0.1% Centro Salud “B” 1095 50 4.6% 50 4.5% CSHS, Nuevo Casas Grandes 93 3 3.2% 6 6.5% CSHS, Ojinaga No report - - - -
New Mexico BAHC, Deming 215 0 0.0% 0 0.0% BAHC, Dona Ana 467 0 0.0% 0 0.0% HMS, Lordsburg 179 0 0.0% 2 0.9% LCDF, Chaparral 153 0 0.0% 0 0.0% LCDF, Sunland 118 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Texas Alpine 81 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Fort Stockton No report - - - - Marfa Community Health 85 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Presidio Medical 104 0 0.0% 0 0.0% UTEP Student Health No report - - - - Totals: 4089 410 10.0% 66 1.7%

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

You have polluted this thread with one absurd post after another. D225N is the key change in the Chihuahua sub-clade, and you claim to have forgotten it!

You have no clue. You have no background in sequence analysis, genetics, virology, or anything related to your wacko posts. You spread your utter nonsense all over the internet, and have been doing so for YEARS. This is a serious board, which frowns on posts that are blatantly false.

Its hard to claim that they are deliberately false because they are too absurd to be belived by anyone but the poster, but they are disruptive and annoying.

Please post your fake data elsewhere. Your pollution of this board has reached a saturation point.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Speaking of babble boards, now one of the boards that has been discounting the situation in Mexico from the beginning has a phone number in Mexico to verify the ILI numbers. They have called and been told that they have "a lot of cases" so now someone with NO medical background is going to call back to talk to a physician so the "real" situation can be filtered by someone with no medical background or understanding of influenza evolution, and posted.

The story in Mexico is quite straight forward. It started with two previously healthy young (26M and 36M) traffic officers who were partners being infected with a novel sub-clade with D225N. Both officers died and other members if the force in eastern Juarez were hospitalized, including at least one in critical condition.

Juarez and the capital, Chihuahua, took a long series of protective steps, including vaccinating the entire force, and then thousands if not hundreds of thousands of residents (to create immunological "fences"). Physicians were trained to care for H1N1 ICU cases and the infections have spread to the capital, Chihuahua, as well as multiple other locations in Mexico (as well as multiple locations in North and South America).

The situation is quite dire, and appears to be creating probems in El Paso as indicated by the dramatic (historic) P&I deaths in weeks 14 and 15, no phone calls required.

The real situation has been described in detail last week

http://rense.gsradio.net:8080/rense/spe ... 042111.mp3

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

As a quick update, even though they have called and been told that there are a lot of cases, they are STILL doubting the PUBLISHED numbers based on their "analysis".

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpo ... stcount=17

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Since virtually eveyone in Juarez knows of the H1N1 problem (which began over a month ago), if the clinic was full of patients (more than half) coughing, bleeding from the nose, and having breathing difficulties, is that the clinic you would go to for some unrelated minor problem?

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Hey! I started that thread. I resemble that remark!

Seriously, a few of us are genuinely trying to contribute in both places. Personally, I don't want to get caught in the crossfire, but if I'm posting nonsense, I have no problem being called out. I don't claim to have any expertise in infectious disease. I'm just trying to post information and increase awareness everywhere that I can.

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I used to think I had to understand in order to believe, but then I realized that I had to believe in order to understand. - Augustine

There is no problem posting both places. In fact your post finally got some over there to realize there was a real problem. I can't post there, so I made a few comments here. They have been discounting the problems for a month now, and even when they call and are told there are a lot of cases, they doubt the numbers.

As noted, an ILI case is not someone who walks into a clinic because they think they have the flu. To be classified as an ILI case, they have to meet the definition (including a fever above 100 F), as stated on the New Mexico website as a note to the table.

I don't expect much more to come from tomorrow's phone call. Generally the public info is posted at the public site, so I just expect a confirmation of the public numbers, although the call will probably confirm that the number of cases remains high (and there might be updated info on the other sites in Juarez).

GSGS posts are annoying because they are VERY misleading, and frequently false, like claiming the ILI definition for Juarez doesn't match the definition posted in the footnote to the table for Juarez.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

INFLUENZA (32): PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION ALERT
******************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Wed 20 Apr 2011
Source: PAHO Epidemiological Alert [edited]
<http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5291&Itemid=1091&lang=en>


Since the beginning of 2011, in the region of the Americas, there
have been significant outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 that, while
geographically limited, have generated a significant demand on health
services. This situation is not unexpected. Since the end of the
pandemic (2009-2010), the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus continues to
circulate on a global level like a seasonal strain, periodically
causing important outbreaks in various continents. Considering the
possibility of outbreaks occurring on account of the influenza A
(H1N1) 2009 virus in the countries of the region, national authorities
should be prepared to mitigate the resulting impact.

Current situation
---------------------
There have been outbreaks in Ecuador (January 2011), Mexico and
Venezuela (March 2011). In the past 3 weeks, the Dominican Republic's
National Influenza Centre has detected an increase in the positive
samples of influenza A(H1N1) 2009. In the last month, other sporadic
detections have occurred in Cuba, Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica and El
Salvador.

This situation is not unexpected. Since the end of the pandemic
(2009-2010), the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus continues to circulate
on a global level like a seasonal strain, periodically causing
important outbreaks in various continents.

In Europe in the winter of 2010-2011, the influenza A (H1N1) 2009
virus was the predominant strain. In some countries, the morbidity
rate was similar to that observed during the pandemic. On the other
hand, in North America, where during the pandemic the transmission of
A (H1N1) 2009 was much higher than what was expected, the predominant
strains that circulated this winter [2010-2011] were influenza A/H3N2
and influenza B.

In the Americas, the level of circulation and the impact caused by
the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus during the pandemic varied. In the
countries of the Southern Cone and the southern region of Brazil, the
circulation of the virus was very intense during the pandemic, then
resulting in a low detection of the virus during the 2010 winter. In
other places of the tropical regions, where the predominance is not as
defined, the circulation of the virus was not as intense;
consequently, the proportion of the population susceptible is still
high, and this favors the appearance of geographically limited
sporadic outbreaks.

Considering the possibility of an outbreak occurring on account of
the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in the countries of the region,
national authorities should be prepared to mitigate the resulting
impact. It is recommended that all of the countries activate their
National Preparedness Plans for the pandemic and follow the WHO and
PAHO recommendations. The PAHO's Technical Area for Health
Surveillance and Disease Prevention and Control is available to offer
the necessary technical support as requested.

Implementing the recommended measurements of the national preparation
plan for prevention of an influenza pandemic:
--------------------------
- Implement a risk communication plan to prevent and/or reduce the
population's anxiety. The press has a key role in disseminating
information. It is necessary to inform the public that the large
majority of infections are asymptomatic or present non-specific
symptoms. Only a fraction of those affected develop a medical case
that requires seeking medical assistance. An even smaller fraction
develops difficulty breathing which requires hospitalization. Deaths
are very infrequent.

- The population must be informed that the primary form of
transmission is via interpersonal contact. Hand washing is the most
efficient way to diminish transmission. An understanding of
"respiratory hygiene and cough etiquette" also helps to avoid
transmission. Persons with fever should avoid going to their workplace
or to public places until their fever has disappeared

- Certain population groups require special attention because they
are more susceptible to developing severe infection: pregnant women
and persons suffering from chronic conditions, especially lung and
heart related. These patients should be treated with antivirals (i.e.
oseltamivir) at the onset of symptoms.

- All patients admitted for health services with respiratory
difficulties should begin treatment with antivirals immediately.
Laboratory confirmation is not necessary. The sooner oseltamivir is
administered, the greater the chance of success.

For technical information on influenza, access the following link:
<http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3353&Itemid=2470&to=2250&lang=en>.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>

[It seems likely that influenza virus (H1N1) 2009 virus infection
will predominate in the impending winter influenza epidemic in the
southern hemisphere and that the currently available influenza vaccine
will be adequate for control of the epidemic. - Mod.CP]

[see also:
Influenza (31): Europe update 20110420.1235
Influenza (29): WHO update 20110408.1104]
.................................................cp/msp/jw

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman