Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

The continuous release of radiation from the Fukushiam Daiichi nuclear plant has increased H5N1 pandemic concerns, Recently released H5N1 sequences from a duck in Fukushima have receptor binding domain (RBD) change S227R, which was also present in a whooper swan sequence from Hokkaido, indicating this change is widespread in northern Japan. These changes are on a clade 2.3.2 genetic background that also has V223I and M230I, changes found in H5N1 from the Gharbya cluster.

The radiation released at the Daiichi plant is forecast to go east to the Aleutian Island, and the back over Russia, China, and Korea, where H5N1 is circulating in wild birds. Exposure of H5N1 to ionizing radiation can lead to rapid genetic change, which may increase the ability of H5N1 to transmit in humans.

Moreover, the earthquake and tsunami have led to overcrowding conditions in displaced persons, which would also favor viral spread. Recent H5N1 cases in Bangladesh were detected with swabs from the upper respiratory tract, signaling a great ease of transmission in humans.

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A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific, and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.


Health and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule.

The projection, by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, an arm of the United Nations in Vienna, gives no information about actual radiation levels but only shows how a radioactive plume would probably move and disperse.

The forecast, calculated Tuesday, is based on patterns of Pacific winds at that time and the predicted path is likely to change as weather patterns shift.

On Sunday, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission said it expected that no “harmful levels of radioactivity” would travel from Japan to the United States “given the thousands of miles between the two countries.”

The test ban treaty group routinely does radiation projections in an effort to understand which of its global stations to activate for monitoring the worldwide ban on nuclear arms testing. It has more than 60 stations that sniff the air for radiation spikes and uses weather forecasts and powerful computers to model the transport of radiation on the winds.

On Wednesday, the agency declined to release its Japanese forecast, which The New York Times obtained from other sources. The forecast was distributed widely to the agency’s member states.

But in interviews, the technical specialists of the agency did address how and why the forecast had been drawn up.

“It’s simply an indication,” said Lassina Zerbo, head of the agency’s International Data Center. “We have global coverage. So when something happens, it’s important for us to know which station can pick up the event.”

For instance, the Japan forecast shows that the radioactive plume will probably miss the agency’s monitoring stations at Midway and in the Hawaiian Islands but is likely to be detected in the Aleutians and at a monitoring station in Sacramento.

The forecast assumes that radioactivity in Japan is released continuously and forms a rising plume. It ends with the plume heading into Southern California and the American Southwest, including Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The plume would have continued eastward if the United Nations scientists had run the projection forward.

Earlier this week, the leading edge of the tangible plume was detected by the Navy’s Seventh Fleet when it was operating about 100 miles northeast of the Japanese reactor complex. On Monday, the Navy said it had repositioned its ships and aircraft off Japan “as a precautionary measure.”

The United Nations agency has also detected radiation from the stricken reactor complex at its detector station in Gunma, Japan, which lies about 130 miles to the southwest.

The chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Gregory B. Jaczko, said Monday that the plume posed no danger to the United States. “You just aren’t going to have any radiological material that, by the time it traveled those large distances, could present any risk to the American public,” he said in a White House briefing.

Mr. Jaczko was asked if the meltdown of a core of one of the reactors would increase the chance of harmful radiation reaching Hawaii or the West Coast.

“I don’t want to speculate on various scenarios,” he replied. “But based on the design and the distances involved, it is very unlikely that there would be any harmful impacts.”

The likely path of the main Japanese plume across the Pacific has also caught the attention of Europeans, many of whom recall how the much closer Chernobyl reactor in Ukraine began spewing radiation.

In Germany on Wednesday, the Federal Office for Radiation Protection held a news conference that described the threat from the Japanese plume as trifling and said there was no need for people to take iodine tablets. The pills can prevent poisoning from the atmospheric release of iodine-131, a radioactive byproduct of nuclear plants. The United States is also carefully monitoring and forecasting the plume’s movements. The agencies include the Federal Aviation Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Energy.

On Wednesday, Steven Chu, the energy secretary, told Congress that the United States was planning to deploy equipment in Japan that could detect radiation exposure on the ground and in the air. In total, the department’s team includes 39 people and more than eight tons of equipment.

“We continue to offer assistance in any way we can,” Dr. Chu said at a hearing, “as well as informing ourselves of what the situation is.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/science/17plume.html

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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03161 ... shima.html

S227R In H5N1 In Fukushima Japan
Recombinomics Commentary 18:10
March 16, 2011


Hokkaido University released the H5N1 sequence from a duck in Fukushima, A/duck/Fukushima/2/2011, which was collected in January, 2011. Like the sequence from the whooper swan in Hokkaido, A/whooper swan/Hokkaido/4/2011, it had S227R (in addition to V223I and M230I). A third sequence from Tochigi, A/peregrine falcon/Tochigi/15/2011, had the earlier changes (V223I and M230I), but did not have S227R.

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Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1763

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03171 ... ation.html

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Oh my Dr. Niman, this does not bode well. Gave me pause when I read it. Certainly seems like the radiation could be the catalyst that will drive the genetic changes. The birds won't be given iodine tablets. A deteriorating situation for sure..I don't know much about how nuclear reactions work but I feel this will not end well. Situations like this often remind me of the adage from Murphy's law ..."What will go wrong, will". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_law

Exposing H5N1 to low dose ionizing radiation is a scientific experiment in progress.

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Dhaka, Mar 16 (bdnews24.com) — Another human case of avian influenza has been detected in the Kamalapur area of the capital, two days after a 13-month-old girl was found carrying the H5N1 virus in the same locality.

The Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) discovered the fresh case while mopping up the area on Wednesday. It launched a drive in the locality following the detection of first case of the year in the area on Sunday.

IEDCR director Prof Mahmudur Rahman told bdnews24.com that a 31-month-old boy had been detected carrying the virus in their lab.

They tested nasal as well as throat swab and blood to confirm the case. The boy showed up with mild symptoms including fever and cough at the IEDCR and ICDDR,B joint surveillance site at Kamalapur, the director said.

Prof Rahman, however, said that the boy was not related to the earlier case.

So far, three people have been detected infected with the bird flu virus since its first outbreak in March 2007 in poultry.

IEDCR urged people not to panic, rather be aware of the disease.

"Maintaining bio-security in poultry farms and personal hygiene can keep the virus away," Prof Rahman said, adding that the virus had the potential to cause severe illness in humans with a high fatality rate.

"We are lucky that the strain (clade 2.2) of H5N1, which circulates in Bangladesh, is less virulent, so it causes less infection to humans," he said.

"But we have to be careful as it has the potential to change into another class (2.1), which was highly infectious to human," he added.

The first human case in May 2008, a 15-month-old boy, got the virus when his mother slaughtered a chicken at home and later cuddled him with unwashed hands.

Now, IEDCR is working on ascertaining the source of infection of the second baby.

They advised doctors to seek history of exposure to sick poultry while attending on patients with serious respiratory illness, who might have contracted the deadly strain of human avian influenza virus.

The institute is getting cases from Kamalapur area because of their extensive surveillance, which was not possible everywhere in a resource-starved country like Bangladesh.

IEDCR currently maintains virus surveillance at 28 spots, including 26 hospitals across Bangladesh.

The government is funding in 14 surveillance sites, while others are being run with the help of US Centre for Disease Control.

Prof Rahman suggests 'one health' approach that means combined effort of the department of livestock and health. "Community people should be involved in the process of eliminating bird flu from Bangladesh."

Principal scientific officer of IEDCR Dr M Mustaque Husain, however, said the current practice of marketing live birds in kitchen markets and roadside open spaces might pose significant risk to the people.

He urged people to wash the egg shells with soap to prevent germs.

Besides, he said, people should wear protective gear and practice measures in the outbreak areas to prevent personal contamination while slaughtering chickens and handling dead chickens.

He advised people cough into the crook of elbow and wash hands with soap often to reduce the spread of influenza virus at home or in the community.

Livestock experts suggest double fencing in every farm – outer fencing at the boundary and an inner fence around the poultry sheds to prevent dogs, goats or backyard chickens entering the sheds.

Even grass should be killed with chemicals so that rats cannot hide into it, they opine.

The world's first outbreak of bird flu among humans occurred in Hong Kong in 1997, when it claimed six lives.

So far it killed 315 people out of 534 infected in 15 countries and most of these cases have been linked to close contact with infected poultry or their secretions.

bdnews24.com/nih/nir/2046h

http://www.bdnews24.com/details.php?id=190084&cid=13

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AVIAN INFLUENZA (29): JAPAN (CHIBA), POULTRY
*******************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

[1]
Date: 13 Mar 2011
Source: AP [edited]
<http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9LU8EN00&show_article=1>


Avian influenza infection was confirmed Sunday [13 Mar 2011] among
chickens at a poultry farm in Chiba city, marking the 1st such case
in the Kanto region centering on Tokyo, the Chiba prefectural government said.

Local authorities began culling about 35 000 birds at the farm and
restricted the movements of another 869 000 birds being raised within
a 10-km radius of the farm in question.

"This is a very severe situation, as damage from the huge earthquake
is also serious," Chiba Gov. Kensaku Morita said at a press
conference, referring to the powerful quake that struck northeastern
and eastern Japan on Friday [11 Mar 2011].

A total of 4 birds were found dead at the Chiba farm on Friday and
Saturday [11-12 Mar 2011], and a genetic test confirmed that 4 out of
7 birds checked were infected by a highly pathogenic strain of bird
flu virus, local government officials said.

Chiba is Japan's 2nd-largest chicken egg producing prefecture.

--
Communicated by:
Merritt Clifton
Editor, Animal People
P.O. Box 960
Clinton, WA 98236
<http://www.animalpeoplenews.org>
<anmlpepl@whidbey.com>

******
[2]
Date: 16 Mar 2011
Source: 21 Food & Beverage Online [edited]
<http://www.21food.com/news/detail33206.html>


The Department in Chiba-ken reported on 13 Mar 2011 a chicken farm
infected with highly infectious bird flu virus in Chiba city after
genetic examination. This is the 1st time a bird flu epidemic has
been confirmed in Kanto region.

The department in Chiba-ken said that dead chickens were discovered
on the farm on 11 Mar 2011. A veterinarian reported that 4 out of 7
dead chickens had a positive reaction upon examination. After genetic
testing, it was confirmed on 13 Mar 2011 that they were infected with
the highly infectious H5 bird flu virus.

Chiba-ken set up bird flu countermeasure headquarters immediately. It
slaughtered 35 000 chickens on this farm and forbade the shipping of
chickens and eggs from 24 chicken farms near the chicken farm in question.

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>

[OIE has issued a series of reports on avian influenza in Japan
(<http://web.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=event_summary&reportid=10072>)
with the latest update from 16 Mar 2011
(<http://web.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=single_report&pop=1&reportid=10351>)
involving diagnoses in a peregrine falcon (1), tufted duck (1),
pochard (1), and 3 N.O.S. Check the OIE site for further details.

To find Chiba, go to:
<http://www.fallingrain.com/world/JA/04/Chiba.html>. It is in central
Japan on the east coast. - Mod.MHJ]

[see also:
Avian influenza (18): Japan (MZ, ME) poultry 20110221.0566
Avian influenza (13): Japan (OT) poultry 20110204.0401
Avian influenza (11): Japan (KS, AI, MZ), poultry, wild birds 20110203.0391
Avian influenza (10): Japan (AI), poultry 20110129.0349
Avian influenza (08): Japan (MZ), H5N1, poultry, wild birds 20110125.0303
Avian influenza (06): Japan (FS), H5N1, wild birds 20110121.0245
2010
----
Avian influenza, poultry vs migratory birds (07): Japan 20101227.4562
Avian influenza (64): Japan (TY) HPAI H5, OIE 20101221.4492
Avian influenza (58): Japan (SM) HPAI H5N1 20101206.4366
Avian influenza (56): Japan (SM) HPAI H5, OIE 20101202.4330
Avian influenza (55): Japan (SM) susp, RFI 20101130.4303]
...................................dk/mhj/msp/dk

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http://web.oie.int/wahis/public.php?pag ... rtid=10351

Highly pathogenic avian influenza,
Japan



Information received on 16/03/2011 from Dr Toshiro Kawashima, CVO, Animal Health Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Tokyo , Japan

Summary

Report type Follow-up report No. 8
Start date 15/12/2010
Date of first confirmation of the event 19/12/2010
Report date 16/03/2011
Date submitted to OIE 16/03/2011
Reason for notification Reoccurrence of a listed disease
Date of previous occurrence 01/04/2009
Manifestation of disease Clinical disease
Causal agent Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus
Serotype H5N1
Nature of diagnosis Clinical, Laboratory (basic), Laboratory (advanced), Necropsy
This event pertains to the whole country
Related reports Immediate notification (20/12/2010)
Follow-up report No. 1 (22/12/2010)
Follow-up report No. 2 (19/01/2011)
Follow-up report No. 3 (23/01/2011)
Follow-up report No. 4 (04/02/2011)
Follow-up report No. 5 (14/02/2011)
Follow-up report No. 6 (24/02/2011)
Follow-up report No. 7 (03/03/2011)
Follow-up report No. 8 (16/03/2011)


New outbreaksOutbreak 1 Uo-machi, Matsue city, SHIMANE
Date of start of the outbreak 08/02/2011
Outbreak status Resolved (08/02/2011)
Epidemiological unit Not applicable
Affected animals Species Susceptible Cases Deaths Destroyed Slaughtered
Wild species 1 1 0 0

Affected Population Aythya ferina (pochard)
Outbreak 2 Misawa Air Base, Misawa city, AOMORI
Date of start of the outbreak 10/03/2011
Outbreak status Resolved (10/03/2011)
Epidemiological unit Not applicable
Affected animals Species Susceptible Cases Deaths Destroyed Slaughtered
Wild species 1 1 0 0

Affected Population Falco peregrinus (peregrine falcon)
Outbreak 3 Tamayu-cho, Matsue city, SHIMANE
Date of start of the outbreak 01/02/2011
Outbreak status Resolved (01/02/2011)
Epidemiological unit Not applicable
Affected animals Species Susceptible Cases Deaths Destroyed Slaughtered
Wild species 1 1 0 0

Affected Population Aythya fuligula (tufted duck)
Summary of outbreaks Total outbreaks: 3
Total animals affected Species Susceptible Cases Deaths Destroyed Slaughtered
Wild species 3 3 0 0

Outbreak statistics Species Apparent morbidity rate Apparent mortality rate Apparent case fatality rate Proportion susceptible animals lost*
Wild species ** ** 100.00% **

* Removed from the susceptible population through death, destruction and/or slaughter
** Not calculated because of missing information


EpidemiologySource of the outbreak(s) or origin of infection Unknown or inconclusive



Control measuresMeasures applied Screening
Vaccination prohibited
No treatment of affected animals

Measures to be applied No other measures



Future ReportingThe event is continuing. Weekly follow-up reports will be submitted.

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