Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

I was more interested in the poster from the UK who knew fatal cases, but the board clearly represents a parallel universe that is not reality based.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Nup. Simple logic about a bad claim. Sometimes it helps not to have a vested interest.

I'm just catching up with this thread, and maybe Niman has made this clear, but in case he hasn't:



Does this mean that those of us in the US may be spared the type of H1N1 that is surging in the UK?

I can't imagine why... It's almost impossible for me to grasp how the presence of one virus can preclude another virus from entering the picture. If someone can explain why (in relaxed laymen's terms), please, do tell.

Everyone's asleep. I'm sure I'll find out tomorrow.

There are some areas in teh US where H1N1 is on the rise and approaching H3N2 levels, so a UK-like situation in the US may just be delayed.

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Viruse such as H1N1 are in a constant battle with the host as well as other viruses, including other influenza sub-types. In addition to making antibodies that target a specific sub-type, humans launch additional attacks with cytokines, such as interferon. Interferon got its name because it interfers with viruses in general.

If there is a lot of H1N1 in circulation, the levels of interferons or other cytokines in the population may be high enough to limit an infection or spread of another serotype like H3N2. Multiple infections may be required to get a viral load high enough to overcome the host defenses, so a student in a classroom full of people with H1N1 might get infected multiple times in a short time frame to establish an infection, while spread of a rare serotype, like H3N2 may not have a high enough critical mass to become established in such an environment.

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By Martin Beckford 7:00AM GMT 03 Jan 2011
Comment
Over the past month the National Health Service has increased fourfold the number of special machines that treat critical flu victims.

But all 21 are now in use and health authorities have been told that if demand continues to rise, more intensive care units may need to cancel routine operations in order to start offering the complex service to treat the most seriously ill sufferers of the virus.

Children with the virus also face long journeys by ambulance in search of hospitals with spare beds.

Yet a further surge in cases is expected this week as schools reopen and workers return after the Christmas and New Year holiday.

Official figures show that 39 people in Britain have died of flu since October, most from the H1N1 form known as swine flu, while reported cases rose by more than 40 per cent last week.

As many as half of adult intensive care beds are occupied by swine flu victims in some areas, with paediatric units worst hit.

Normally there are just five machines available offering a form of life-saving treatment - called Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation or Ecmo – to help victims whose lungs have failed by providing oxygen directly into their bloodstreams.

As flu cases rose and more seriously ill patients were referred for Ecmo treatment in December, NHS Specialised Services increased the number of beds to 21. Last year just 12 beds were needed.

A portable Ecmo machine was flown by Prince William in a RAF helicopter to treat a young woman who developed swine flu just weeks after giving birth, but she later died in North Manchester General Hospital.

Ecmo is now on offer at seven hospitals around England, with referrals taking place at the country’s main Ecmo centre in Glenfield Hospital, Leicester. Those offering the treatment, which requires the use of increased numbers of doctors and nurses, have been told to postpone planned operations.

All 21 beds are now in use, although there is no suggestion that patients are being turned away. But as more patients continue to be considered for Ecmo, health bodies are preparing to buy even more of the £40,000 machines and install them in more centres.

NHS Specialised Services wrote to all Strategic Health Authorities just before Christmas, putting them on alert that more hospitals may be required to offer the treatment if demand continues to rise.

The organisation, which commissions treatments for patients with rare conditions, is confident it has the situation under control.

A spokesman for the National Specialised Commissioning Team said: “The National Specialised Commissioning Team has significantly increased the number of beds available for patients requiring Ecmo. In December the number of beds increased from 5 to 21.

“This very specialist procedure, a last resort for many patients, is being provided by highly trained specialists at seven hospitals across England.

“The NHS is monitoring the situation carefully and we are continuing to increase the number of beds available. For instance, hospitals providing respiratory Ecmo have been asked to take appropriate measures, including postponing planned cardiac surgery, in order to maximise capacity for patients needing Ecmo. Hospitals which have specialist respiratory centres are also being requested to suspend elective surgical work, which requires ICU support, to ensure capacity is available for the repatriation of stable patients from the national Ecmo service.

“In addition, new advice was issued to the NHS before Christmas to ensure there is additional capacity if all nationally designated Ecmo beds are in use.

“Although Ecmo is a highly specialised treatment, expert clinicians who perform cardiac surgery and provide critical support to patients in intensive care use many of the same skills and technology required for Ecmo.

“SHAs have been asked to identify appropriate cardiac surgery centres (whose staff do not normally provide the Ecmo services) so that these hospitals can also be authorised to provide a limited Ecmo service. Hospitals will only perform Ecmo if staff are appropriately qualified with the right level of experience. Hospitals will operate to strict clinical protocols and receive advice and support from clinicians at other centres.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine ... untry.html

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The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) released information regarding widespread occurrences of the flu late last week. According to the CDC, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, New York and Virginia all have a great numbers of reported flu cases.

Just two weeks earlier, the CDC was yet to receive any reported cases from across the nation. Details of the cases indicate the strain is the normal seasonal type influenza. Officials are not expecting to see many affected by the H1N1 strain during this season, according to Associate Professor of clinical medicine at New York-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center, Dr. Keith Roach. - so H1N1 in 2011 -12 flu season then?

The report also provided insight to the different strains of the virus circulating; about 120 different virus samples were tested. The tests indicated they were well-matched with the vaccines created for this season.

The CDC recommends that everyone over the age of six months receive the flu vaccination. Health officials warned that approximately 23,000 people die each year from flu related complications. The flu vaccination greatly reduces the likelihood of getting the flu. The fall season is when most start to receive vaccinations before the start of the flu season.

Dr. Roach advised anyone who thinks they may have contracted the flu virus to visit their doctor as soon as possible. If the flu is treated early, the length of the illness can be shortened with antiviral medication. Symptoms of the flu are similar to that of the common cold, sneezing, coughing and body aches.
-since when is fever omitted as a flu symptom and body aches a cold symptom?
Roach said, “I’m in clinic right now and about two out of every three patients I’m seeing have upper respiratory infections,” and although it could not be the flu, a diagnosis should be determined by a physician.

Dr Niman, Thank you for your explanation. As usual, I have another question, just really a bit of clarification for my simple brain!

Does this mean, in your opinion, that the arrival of the UK type of H1N1 is only delayed, or that we could possibly have less of it altogether, thus possibly being spared the type of very bad onslaught they are having altogether?