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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:40 pm 
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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01031 ... O_100.html

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:23 pm 
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By Eilish O'Regan Health Correspondent


Monday January 03 2011

THE Health Service Executive (HSE) yesterday ruled out reopening free swine flu vaccination clinics for the entire population even though the number of people being struck by the virus is expected to continue to rise.

Dr Kevin Kelleher, head of health protection with the HSE, said yesterday the expert advice from its advisory committee was that the current seasonal flu vaccine be offered only to at-risk groups -- including pregnant women -- and not the entire population.

However, he told the Irish Independent that cases of flu were expected to continue to rise in the short term. He said the surge at this time of winter was similar to patterns in the spread of flu seen over the past decade and it was highly unlikely we would see an epidemic.

He was speaking as GPs reported being very busy with "out-of-hours" calls in the evening and over the weekend from patients with flu-like symptoms.

Confirmed cases of flu soared over Christmas, and since October there have been at least 36 people hospitalised, with five admitted to intensive care.

The rate at which GPs were consulted by patients with flu-like symptoms was 62.7 per 100,000 but it would need to reach 200 per 100,000 to be declared an epidemic.

Dr Kelleher said the advice remained that people in at-risk groups with underlying illnesses, pregnant women and the over 65s should avail of the seasonal flu vaccine that protects against all strains.

The HSE spent around €2.5m on 700,000 doses of seasonal flu vaccine for this season -- in contrast to the €12.8m given to buy the swine flu vaccine last winter in advance of the pandemic.

Around 900,000 doses of surplus swine flu vaccine are still in storage after not being used last year when it was offered free to the entire population. Just one in four availed of the jab.

These doses are likely to remain unused now and will have to be destroyed when their expiry date is up in September.

The reopening of schools as well as the return of thousands of people to the workplace is likely to see a rise in flu-like illnesses.

Those worst affected so far are the under fives and young people -- although other strains are also circulating which are a danger to the elderly.

Complications

Dr Kelleher said he believed hospital intensive-care units were coping well with patients with complications from flu who were admitted in recent weeks.

Tens of thousands of schoolchildren received the swine flu vaccine last winter and many of these still have immunity.

The worst affected regions this year appear to be the east and south of the country, although the increased travelling by people over the Christmas and new year period means flu is likely to have spread to all areas.

A review is expected to be carried out in advance of next winter to determine if children under five should be routinely offered the seasonal flu vaccine given that swine flu, which mostly affects the young, is likely to be the predominant virus for years to come.

- Eilish O'Regan Health Correspondent

Irish Independent
http://www.independent.ie/health/latest ... 81548.html

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:30 pm 
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Dr. Niman, I hate to bother you but please forgive me for doing so!

I am trying to figure out if the "buffering action" on swine H1N1 in the US by the incidence of H3N2 circulating currently means we won't have the kind of upsurge of H1N1 as in the UK, or it will just be later on?

Thank you for your patience.

I also have another question:

Is the H1N1 now in the US not the same kind as in the UK right now?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:39 pm 
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BeWell wrote:
Dr. Niman, I hate to bother you but please forgive me for doing so!

I am trying to figure out if the "buffering action" on swine H1N1 in the US by the incidence of H3N2 circulating currently means we won't have the kind of upsurge of H1N1 as in the UK, or it will just be later on?

Thank you for your patience.

I also have another question:

Is the H1N1 now in the US not the same kind as in the UK right now?

Recent H1N1 sequences from the US have not been published. However, the UK sequences from October and November have similarities with earlier Australian sequences, and these sequences are also in Japan, Taiwan, and Iran, so they are almost certainly also in the US, but at a level lower than the UK, where H1N1 is dominant. December UK sequences have not been released, but they are likely to be similar to the October / November sequences.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:44 pm 
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If nothing much has changed in the UK as far as flu genetics, why is it so much worse now? Did the sequences from the UK in Oct and Nov have D225G? Just trying to sort it out.

And should we expect a big surge of H1N1 in the US this winter, even though there is quite a bit of H3N2? (Still trying to figure out the buffering thing.)

Please excuse my questions.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:47 pm 
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BeWell wrote:
If nothing much has changed in the UK as far as flu genetics, why is it so much worse now? Did the sequences from the UK in Oct and Nov have D225G? Just trying to sort it out.

And should we expect a big surge of H1N1 in the US this winter, even though there is quite a bit of H3N2? (Still trying to figure out the buffering thing.)

Please excuse my questions.

There were only 3 HA sequences and none had D225G.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:51 pm 
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From the news I've read, some of the confirmed fatalities in the UK had been previously vaccinated. Would that indicate that the H1N1 circulating in the UK has something that makes it a low reactor other than D225G?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:06 pm 
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BeWell wrote:
From the news I've read, some of the confirmed fatalities in the UK had been previously vaccinated. Would that indicate that the H1N1 circulating in the UK has something that makes it a low reactor other than D225G?

Only 3 sequences have been released and only one of the fatal cases was confirmed to be vaccinated, but the dramatic rise in cases suggests that there is immunological escape this season, which involves multiple changes.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:09 pm 
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Thank you very much.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:52 pm 
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Sorry to bug you again but does the "buffering" mean "protect" or just "slow down"?

thanks!


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