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littlebird
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:57 pm 
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Could we be at a point in our history where we are witnessing pre-pandemic tropical storms? My question is, are these triple reassortant viruses a new phenomenon? Or could they have always been the stepping stones the virus makes to finally tweak itself into a full blown "human" flu pandemic with our classic pandemic markers of virulence for our species.

You're suggesting back-to-back pandemics...

so either we're in a new age of aggressively emerging viruses... or we've missed this evolution in the past due to a lack of surveillance/communication. Maybe this is just how the smaller storms rotate into the Hurricane.

Maybe this thing hasn't even hit land yet.

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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:07 pm 
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littlebird wrote:
Could we be at a point in our history where we are witnessing pre-pandemic tropical storms? My question is, are these triple reassortant viruses a new phenomenon? Or could they have always been the stepping stones the virus makes to finally tweak itself into a full blown "human" flu pandemic with our classic pandemic markers of virulence for our species.

You're suggesting back-to-back pandemics...

so either we're in a new age of aggressively emerging viruses... or we've missed this evolution in the past due to a lack of surveillance/communication. Maybe this is just how the smaller storms rotate into the Hurricane.

Maybe this thing hasn't even come ashore yet.

Triple reassortants (TRs) have been around since the 1990's, but they didn't start showing up in humans until 2006. The H1 TRs increased prior to the H1N1 pandemic, which was a TR. The H3 TRs in humans began AFTER pH1N1 started. The first one was just over a year ago, and now the frequency of detection for H3 is similar to H1's prior to H1N1.

It remains unclear how widespread it is at this time, and all that has been said about the death cluster in Akita was an H3N2 event - no comments on sequences.

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Tex
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 1:34 pm 
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Quote:
H3N2 pandemic discussed tonight at 10 PM EST - Thurs

http://www.rense.com/about/guests.htm



Do you have a link?
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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 1:49 pm 
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Tex wrote:
Quote:
H3N2 pandemic discussed tonight at 10 PM EST - Thurs

http://www.rense.com/about/guests.htm



Do you have a link?

http://rense.gsradio.net:8080/rense/spe ... 111810.mp3

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Tex
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 5:51 pm 
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Thanks.
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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:27 pm 
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It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:31 pm 
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niman wrote:
It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

When the CDC released the sequences from humans infected with swine H1N1 or H3N2, they let the cat out of the H2H bag.

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Last edited by niman on Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:59 pm 
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niman wrote:
niman wrote:
It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

When the CDC released the sequences from humans infected with swine H1N1 or H3N2, the let the cat out of the H2H bag.

It is also worth noting that the CDC used the ferret antisera to A/Illinois/09/2007 in the Science paper on pH1N1. Science should have required the CDC to make the A/Illinois/09/2007 sequence public, because peer reviewed papers are supposed to provide suffient detail to allow for independent reproduction/confirmation. Similarly, the WHO regional lab in Australia used the ferret antisera in their paper

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/ ... R_Tab2.jpg

even though the A/Illinois/09/2007 sequence was not public.

I noted that Illinois/09/07 was likely similar to Ohio/01/07

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/10221 ... _2010.html

so the CDC knew that they could not continue to hide the ball on H2H of swine H1N1. The internal genes of OH/01/07, OH/02/07, and IL/09/07 match the trH3N2 currently in circulation.

Increased surveilance would identify MANY examples of trH3N2 in HUMANS in the US in 2010.

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Last edited by niman on Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 9:03 pm 
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CopitoSP wrote:
The title of this thread is beyond the facts and is quite alarmist. Don't you think, niman?

Dr.Henry, I like reading your opinions/commentaries, but this time you're going too far with the asseverations of a new pandemic has begun. All this is a little premature without official data and sequences. And if this H3N2 transmits efficiently a pandemic wouldn't happen as many people have some previous immunity, large outbreaks will be possible in all age groups, but not a pandemic as 2009 H1N1 was. This is all I can say with the data given.

Please. I ask you to wait a bit more for official information to come out before opening this kind of threads which are pointless at the moment.


P.S.:These articles come from eastern European countries which many times aren't reliable or very rigorous as a source. You shouldn't put them into the category of "European reports"

Thank you.

The sequences are out and it is clear that there was H2H of trH1N1 in 2007 and there is H2H of trH3N2 in 2010.

The CDC has been hiding the ball (since the mid-90's) on H2H transmission of swine sequences in humans.

The release of the sequences has let the cat out of the hiding H2H bag.

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niman
 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:19 pm 
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niman wrote:
It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

Although swine sequences from the fair were also identical, the characterization sheets for the swine isolates do NOT include the date of collection, leaving open the possibility that the swine were infected by exhibitors or attendees.

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