Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Actually there are hundreds of media reports in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan which describe the WHO pager alert on the PA (46M) and IL (7 month old) cases.

The PA case is in tomorrow's MMWR, confirming the European reports.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

It's important to be pro-active in detection and not be complacent - quick action and response can save millions of lives. Thank goodness we have people that pay attention, and as in all things, there are those that sit on opposite sides of opinion. Check and balance? Yes. But in the end, someone is going to say "I told you so". Err on the side of safety always.

Thank you for the information, Dr. Niman. Data will eventually tell us a lot.

The title of this thread is beyond the facts and is quite alarmist. Don't you think, niman?

Dr.Henry, I like reading your opinions/commentaries, but this time you're going too far with the asseverations of a new pandemic has begun. All this is a little premature without official data and sequences. And if this H3N2 transmits efficiently a pandemic wouldn't happen as many people have some previous immunity, large outbreaks will be possible in all age groups, but not a pandemic as 2009 H1N1 was. This is all I can say with the data given.

Please. I ask you to wait a bit more for official information to come out before opening this kind of threads which are pointless at the moment.


P.S.:These articles come from eastern European countries which many times aren't reliable or very rigorous as a source. You shouldn't put them into the category of "European reports"

Thank you.

This is a discussion thread. If you have arguemnts or links indicating the IL case isn't recent, please post. As noted the PA is confirmed in tomorrows MMWR from the CDC, and it clearly is a swine triple reassortant. As for the news, the eastern Europen reports are FAR more informative than the western European reports, which appear to be non-existant.

Withholding the info by the western European countries is NOT very admirable. Clearly there is a PA case.

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11111 ... L_CDC.html

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Deleted.

Do you have those links pointing to a sustained transmission has occurred or even the sequences?

Well, I continue to say you must wait for more information and the most important; sequences.

Dr.Henry, you do know it's very imprudent to speak without data supporting your theories.

When I have official reports and sequences, you and I will debate it.

Yes, PA case seems to happen in week 44.

There is plenty to debate already, such as the rationale for citing the cases in IL and PA in the WHO pager alert, as well as the identity of the novel H3N2 case mentioned in June in the MMWR (week 23).

Confirmation of the IL date and comparision of IL and PA cases won't generate much debate, as the facts will be crystal clear.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

I have posted arguments on why the IL case is recent, as well as why both cases would be in in the same WHO pager alert.

I haven't seen much on the other side. I have seen some nonsense on other boards about infleunza changing all the time, while ignoring the fact that sustained transmission of swine H3N2 in humans has never been documented previously.

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www.twitter.com/hniman

Actually, I didn't say the pandemic has begun. I said that if the IL case is recent and closely related to the PA case and they have no known contact, then it is VERY likely that it has begun.

Swine H3N2 efficiently transmitting in humans has never been reported previously and would be a pandemic. Moreover, co-circulation of swine H3N2 and swine H1N1 in a human polulation would facilitate rapid change by recombination and reassortment leading to MAJOR problems.

Influenza knows how to evolve and this evolution can be very rapid in swine or humans (as seen in Thailand).

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11101 ... ution.html

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