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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 10:31 pm 
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niman wrote:
niman wrote:
It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

Although swine sequences from the fair were also identical, the characterization sheets for the swine isolates do NOT include the date of collection, leaving open the possibility that the swine were infected by exhibitors or attendees.

The circumstances surrounding the infection of the 48F in Illinois are unclear, other than the September 1, 2007 collection date.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sat Nov 20, 2010 11:03 pm 
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In addition to the identity between the human isolates from Ohio and Illinois, the other sequences of swine virus in humans are closely related to each other, even when collected several years apart.

Swine sequences circulate in human populations, and the pH1N1 pandemic spread the virus in humans and swine (as well as other mammals). This expansion has created opportunities for further evolution, leading to the spread of internal genes from Ohio/Illinois infections to trH3N2 infections in Kansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which also have PB1 E618D, which is in virtually all pH1N1 isolates.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 1:53 pm 
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niman wrote:
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
It is worth noting that A/Ohio/01/2007 and Ohio/02/2007 were collected on August 17, 2007. A/Illinois/09/2007 was collected on September 1, 2007. However, the HA sequences are IDENTICAL, signaling human to human (H2H) transmission.

Although swine sequences from the fair were also identical, the characterization sheets for the swine isolates do NOT include the date of collection, leaving open the possibility that the swine were infected by exhibitors or attendees.

The circumstances surrounding the infection of the 48F in Illinois are unclear, other than the September 1, 2007 collection date.

I have looked at the NEJM article more closely and it looks like the above resident as well as a 16 mo old resident from Michigan were at the Huron County fair. Thus, trH1N1 was CONFIRMED in at least FOUR people at the fair. The 48F from IL visited the fair but did NOT stop at the piggery. The 16 mo old from MI visted fair and came within 2 meters of pigs

http://www.nejm.org/action/showImage?do ... 12&iid=t01

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 2:13 pm 
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Both patients (48F, 16 mo M) without direct contact were hospitalized because of severity of disease.

Patient 6, a 48-year-old woman with a history of smoking, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and asthma controlled with inhaled corticosteroids, was hospitalized after a 2-day history of fever, chills, cough, and subsequent cyanosis. She underwent intubation and mechanical ventilation for pneumonia and respiratory failure on admission. Specimens from bronchoscopy and bronchoalveolar lavage, initially performed 7 days after admission, yielded influenza A virus on viral culture and Pseudomonas aeruginosa on bacterial culture. The patient was treated with multiple broad-spectrum antibiotics and oseltamivir (starting on day 11 of hospitalization) and was discharged, in improved condition, on day 19.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 2:06 am 
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The Swine H3N2 Pandemic = Another Niman Fizzer

H274Y fixed too P/H1N1 = Another Niman Fizzer

Maybe they will happen one day. As we know the flu is very unpredictable !!!

Problem is we were told they were happening and to be concerned. Not that they may happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 2:51 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
cpg wrote:
The Swine H3N2 Pandemic = Another Niman Fizzer

H274Y fixed too P/H1N1 = Another Niman Fizzer

Maybe they will happen one day. As we know the flu is very unpredictable !!!

Problem is we were told they were happening and to be concerned. Not that they may happen.

Reality check. Influenza is quite predictable. The PB1 E618D was described BEFORE the CDC released the remaining trH3N2 sequences,

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11131 ... E618D.html

and three out of four of the new sequences had E618D

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11181 ... demic.html

trH3N2 is TRANSMITTING in humans, as PREDICTED,

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 10:20 am 
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In addition to the release of sequences for trH1N1 and trH3N2, the CDC also released the internal gene sequences for a trH1N2 isolate, A/Michigan/09/2007, and it is also related to the PB1 found in most human trH1N1 and trH3N2 (in bold).

PB1 travel log:

EPI291907 A/Ohio/02/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291895 A/Wisconsin/12/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291867 A/Pennsylvania/14/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291859 A/Ohio/01/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291840 A/Minnesota/09/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291824 A/Michigan/09/2007 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI291790 A/Illinois/09/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020

EPI281295 A/swine/Ohio/02026/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI281291 A/swine/Missouri/02060/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI281290 A/swine/North Carolina/02023/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI259229 A/swine/Guangdong/1/2010 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI244299 A/Kansas/13/2009 (A/H3N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI222634 A/swine/Kansas/77778/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI188120 A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00445/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI188116 A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00444/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI188112 A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00443/2008 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI177836 A/swine/Minnesota/1300/2007 (A/H3N2) segment
EPI173658 A/swine/OH/511445/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI166282 A/swine/Illinois/SG-00244/2007 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI153518 A/swine/Ohio/24366/07 (A/H1N1) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020
EPI120024 A/swine/Guangxi/13/2006 (A/H1N2) segment 2 (PB1) 41.7 0.00020

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2010 2:27 pm 
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H3N2 pandemic or not. Heres whats happening in Missouri U.S.A. The hospital ER was packed this weekend here in ST. Joseph. Most with ILI. Alot of people on O2. http://www.dhss.mo.gov/Influenza/Week451011.pdf Table 5. Deaths involving Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I)
Reported During the Week Ending November 6, 2010 (Week 44)
Week 44-87. Season-to-Date 2010-2011-467. Season-to-Date 2009-2010 -408. Week 44 Last Season-71. 5 Year Weekly Median-71

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 10:52 am 
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Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
niman wrote:
Although swine sequences from the fair were also identical, the characterization sheets for the swine isolates do NOT include the date of collection, leaving open the possibility that the swine were infected by exhibitors or attendees.

The circumstances surrounding the infection of the 48F in Illinois are unclear, other than the September 1, 2007 collection date.

I have looked at the NEJM article more closely and it looks like the above resident as well as a 16 mo old resident from Michigan were at the Huron County fair. Thus, trH1N1 was CONFIRMED in at least FOUR people at the fair. The 48F from IL visited the fair but did NOT stop at the piggery. The 16 mo old from MI visted fair and came within 2 meters of pigs

http://www.nejm.org/action/showImage?do ... 12&iid=t01

I have looked at the article again, and it looks like the IL and MI patients were at fairs in Augist of 2007, but the only two patients confirmed at the Huron County fair were OH/01 and OH/02. Therefore the match with the IL patient signals H2H tarnsmission.

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 Post subject: Re: Swine H3N2 Pandemic
PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 2:40 pm 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
NP profile (partial - includes virtually all pH1N1 sequences))

EPI291913 A/Minnesota/41/2009 (A/H1N1 swl) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI291892 A/Wisconsin/12/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI291864 A/Pennsylvania/14/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI291837 A/Minnesota/09/2010 (A/H3N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI291822 A/Michigan/09/2007 (A/H1N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI291816 A/Iowa/16/2009 (A/H3N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI290750 A/San Francisco/01/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI290742 A/Vancouver/01/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288557 A/swine/Argentina/CIP051-StaFeN2/2010 (A/H1N2) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288549 A/swine/Argentina/CIP051-BsAs76/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288357 A/Boston/628/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288349 A/Boston/617/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288341 A/Boston/704/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288333 A/Boston/703/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288325 A/Boston/701/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288317 A/Boston/698/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288309 A/Boston/682/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288301 A/Boston/681/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288293 A/Boston/672/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288285 A/Boston/666/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288269 A/Boston/658/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288261 A/Boston/655/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288253 A/Boston/653/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288245 A/Boston/648/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288237 A/Boston/634/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288229 A/Boston/612/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288221 A/Boston/606/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288213 A/Boston/602/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288205 A/Boston/595/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288197 A/Boston/591/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288189 A/Boston/584/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288164 A/Chile/4438/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288156 A/Chile/4406/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288148 A/Chile/4257/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288140 A/Chile/4182/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288132 A/Chile/4181/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288124 A/Chile/4064/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264
EPI288116 A/Chile/3935/2009 (A/H1N1) segment 5 (NP) 27.0 5.64264

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