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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 1:27 pm 
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Latest numbers for 2010 show that 21.4% of H1N1 lab confirmed cases in Gujarat, India are fatal (194/905)

http://www.pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=63868

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 1:47 pm 
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Sl.

no.
State /UT
Lab confirmed cases cumulative from 1st January 2010
Death of Lab confirmed cases cumulative from 1st January 2010

1
Delhi
1312
26

2
Andhra Pradesh
129
12

3
Karnataka
718
55

4
Tamil Nadu
110
0

5
Maharashtra
2307
261

6
Kerala
1343
72

7
Punjab
62
7

8
Haryana
61
5

9
Chandigarh(UT)
63
0

10
Goa
2
0

11
West Bengal
43
1

12
Uttarakhand
6
3

13
Himachal Pradesh
9
1

14
Jammu & Kashmir
19
2

15
Gujarat
905
194

16
Manipur
1
0

17
Assam
5
1

18
Jharkhand
1
0

19
Rajasthan
1462
49

20
Uttar Pradesh
103
7

21
Puducherry
3
0

22
Chhattisgarh
15
9

23
Madhya Pradesh
72
29

24
Orissa
3
1

25
Andaman & Nicobar
2
0

26
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
1
1



Total


8757


736

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 1:50 pm 
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In Madhya Pradesh the 2010 rate is an alarming 40.3% (29 deaths for 72 confirmed cases).

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:15 pm 
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The highest case fatality rate is for Chhattisgarh is 60% (9/15).

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 3:49 pm 
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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07301 ... a_CFR.html

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2010 6:17 pm 
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I agree this is alarming. How much of the variance do you think is due to sample bias (only sending tests for serious cases to the lab in the first place)?


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2010 7:32 pm 
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novascotia35 wrote:
I agree this is alarming. How much of the variance do you think is due to sample bias (only sending tests for serious cases to the lab in the first place)?

The CFR is completely dependent on testing selection

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07311 ... etail.html

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:02 pm 
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novascotia35 wrote:
I agree this is alarming. How much of the variance do you think is due to sample bias (only sending tests for serious cases to the lab in the first place)?


I'm impressed they confirmed all of those NON-FATAL cases, myself. :blink:

I'm NOT alone either, the following article is all about just how DIFFICULT it was to even CONFIRM this virus (in intensive care) over the last year
(Honestly, in our hospital, we rarely detected it unless a patient was intubated, and a deep lung sample was obtained and UNTIL PCR testing was done.) My collegues in Atlanta based Hospitals shared the same frustrations when I spoke with them. It's hard to confirm this bug. In retrospect, this difficulty in diagnosis was NOT uncommon.
http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/16/5/824.htm

So... for this virus to all of a sudden become "detectable" without intubation (being put on a ventilator), and for it to have a 21% fatality rate... is HIGHLY alarming to me, as a Respiratory Care Professional. It screams of a virus that is NOW reproducing in the nose (and therefore easily detected via rapid flu test) as well as a virus that has a 21% fatality rate. That's scary. MOST people who catch Swine H1N1 never need to be placed on a ventilator, so we pretty much did not diagnose MOST people with Pandemic H1N1 in the U.S. And even if they aren't all confirmed cases... that's an awful lot of influenza like illness that ends in death.

So, to me, These numbers coming out of India ARE alarming. No matter how I look at it, the numbers are significant.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:07 am 
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I'm still trying to get my head around the numbers in this thread and in the reports on the India thread.

From memory there's almost a billion Indians, and while every death is a tragedy, the numbers don't seem high at all from the reports.

Then there's this thread. I don't know what the criteria are for the tests, but the death rates are very high. Indeed, comparing apples to apples, it's over twice that of last year (assuming the testing criteria are the same).

Then there's New Zealand (increasing activity, few deaths) and Australia (few cases so far at all).

What is going on India and with the Second Wave in the Southern Hemisphere?


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:49 am 
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Who knows Dingo

I have been studying the NZ and India stories and both places currently are having a lot of Rain so maybe humidity without the heat is causing the flu to become active and spread.

One thing at this early stage is that P/H1N1 doesnt seem to be any more deadly than last seasons outbreak. I dont trust those CFR figures as they have a massive sampling bias.

If NZ is getting P/H1N1 we should be definitely getting it here in Australia but we get very little rain this time of year. It's our dry season.


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