Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

I'm seeing a SHARP decrease in young adult critically ill patients with flu-like symptoms, but we do have one young adult female (thirty-ish) patient with our favorite diagnosis... H1N1 "alert". (She's morbidly obese and has an underlying heart condtion.).

I'm seeing a C-O-N-S-T-A-N-T mild undercurrent of sick toddlers... (Not bunches) but a constant "odd" trickle of sick toddlers and a couple of younger school-aged kids, with an off-season severe Bronchitis/pneumonia picture going on that strikes me as odd for this time of year. A few of them have had full blown flu symptoms (fever, vomiting... and what might appear to be body aches for a small child who cannot describe things very well) but almost nobody is ordering any flu testing. I think that's only because it's an unseasonal thing to do.

I'm also seeing a lot of seasonal Asthma patients... (it's Spring, and its one of our peak times for Asthma)... they are easily identified, as they do not have the fever, malaise, and stomach upset of the viral group. I've seen some Croup... and some strep throat as well. But as always.... there is that constant under-tow of severe pneumonia/bronchitis kids who test negative for RSV and flu (when a doctor is gutsy enough to test for flu in May.)

In the Young Adult world.... it's like as soon as April was almost over, influenza symptoms disappeared.

That's kind of abrupt (from what we've been seeing).

It's so abrupt, that it's alarming.

So, from where I stand.... either H1N1 is simmering down, and settling into the seasonal flu groove (and laying low for the Summer)

or... it is sinking into a crouching/springing position.

_________________
"Old Mother Goose, when she wanted to wander, would ride through the air on a very fine gander."
1916
"Mother Goose had a house,
'Twas built in a wood,
Where an owl at the door
For sentinel stood."

Either way, I'm convinced that when influenza jumps... it jumps to kids (And in THAT population) it learns to tweak itself.

Since last August, I've noticed a slow, steady, current of influenza flowing through those pre-school aged kids. (Not so deadly). Their immune systems don't over-react to it. It hones its skills on them, and when it jumps to the right adults, it takes on a stronger lethality as it takes on an Adult Immune Response.

It lives and it breeds in children (And even though it does takes its toll on their population) that's nothing compared to the number of kids it infects.

It steadily flys beneath the radar down south (in the kid population).

_________________
"Old Mother Goose, when she wanted to wander, would ride through the air on a very fine gander."
1916
"Mother Goose had a house,
'Twas built in a wood,
Where an owl at the door
For sentinel stood."

Im sure we have all noticed. Influenza of any kind is dramatically down all over the world. It looks like swine wiped out seasonal H1N1 and for whatever reason swine H1N1 is currently taking a holiday. Sure its around but WOW all flu looks like it's taking a break.

Is this the lull before the storm or has H1N1 had its day !!!

Fascinating.

PS Thats alot of swine flu vaccine that will not be used before expiry. Govts caught between a rock and a hard place here.

I wonder if the big pharmas will rethink their investment in vaccine research and investment.

In the UK it is very, very quiet. Some people I know have just had colds, nothing more serious than that.

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Praemonitus, Praemunitus..Forewarned is Forearmed.

It's extremely quiet here in Australia. I took my son to the doctors a week ago for a ear infection. The practice was deserted for the first time since i've been going there. Amazing. Then guess what !!! The doctor asked for my son to come back in a few days . We took the anti biotic for the ear infection then went back. My son was fine and said so. The doctor said its clearing up but if he could see him in another few days. These guys get payed by our Medicare system ( free healthcare ) so each visit is a charge to our govt. I didn't go back and my son is now 100%.

That's what you get with a slow 'FLU' season which is just beginning down here. Or should I say not beginning. Good news really.

If I was to gamble on it I would bet 'influenza' is in retreat. But hey I always lose at the casino.

Well, I'm never complacent about anything be it bad-tempered volcanoes, infectious diseases, etc. It's usually when we sit back & do nothing, things happen. Mother Nature is wonderful but can be deadly at the 'turn of the screw.'

_________________
Praemonitus, Praemunitus..Forewarned is Forearmed.

Same quiet here in Sydney, although we've had a really warm autumn so far. Went swimming last weekend - the water temperature was 24 degrees!

Re red quote - I wouldn't speak too soon. We've only had one wave so far....

Dingo

Yes one wave only. But looking around the world it looks like the one two or three waves some experienced could of been one long fluctuating wave over a short period of time !!

Obviously the 'Flu' is unpredictable but even the best brains on this site haven't called it right.

225g hasnt taken off. H274Y is sporadic at best. Worldwide H1N1 has no consistant spread. Maybe the 225/H274Y mutant is not very fit.

Seasonal flu has gone into hiding. H5N1 is the same as its been over the last 3 -4 years. Up and down and all around with no obvious change in its transmission patterns.

You get a feel for it right now from the lack of Niman posts on his site. Long gaps as nothing new or substantial to report.

I agree. Don't be complacent but it really looks like the 'FLU' is in a massive holding pattern.

What this means is anyones guess.

Pretty much the same here. People with a cough are few and far between now. The only oddity I have is a coworker whose family (mom, dad and a small infant) have had a cough and cold for... well, since late last year. They get better, then come back to work coughing and hacking (into cleenex's, which is better than nothing). The mom claims it's a sinus infection. The dad claims it's allergies (they both work in the same area). But they never get totally better before it knocks them back down again.

Whatever it is they have, it must not be that contagious. I've been around both of them long enough now that I should have caught something ages ago. So it's probably not H1N1.

The rest of my neighborhood is quiet and healthy.

I hope it stays that way, but somehow have a gut-feeling it won't for too long.

Don't disagree with much of that.

One point though: Most folk here are from the northern hemisphere (mainly USA) who had a minor first wave then a nasty second wave way earlier than their normal flu season, then nothing. It's likely that whatever happens, that they may be out of the woods until their next autumn or winter.

However, I draw your attention to this thread viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5301 and the behaviour of past Tamiflu resistance in seasonal flu. I'm hoping for the best but planning for the worst - maybe this needs to be revisited in our spring.