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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:49 am 
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Dingo wrote:
On a related note re India:

From what I have read, there are more similarities with the current pandemic swine flu and Spanish Flu, than either of the two later pandemics.

From memory, a nasty wave in India occurred at the same time as one in the USA during the Spanish Flu. India could be useful to watch.

Although the 2009 pandemic is most like 1918, I am not sure about the geographic implications. High population density will help spread the virus, but the finding of E627K may be due in part to monitoring and current H1N1 levels. The virus is adapting to generate a new wave, and early versions may appear in India, where there are significant levels of virus.

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Last edited by niman on Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:54 am 
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niman wrote:
Dingo wrote:
On a related note re India:

From what I have read, there are more similarities with the current pandemic swine flu and Spanish Flu, than either of the two later pandemics.

From memory, a nasty wave in India occurred at the same time as one in the USA during the Spanish Flu. India could be useful to watch.

Although the 2009 pandmeic is most like 1918, I am not sure about the geographic implications. High population density will help spread teh virus, but the finding of E627K may be due in part to monitoring and current H1N1 levels. The virus is adapting to generate a new wave, and early versions may appear in India, where there are significant levels of virus..


Your guess is that this monitoring just happened to pick it up there ie there's more out there/in different places/countries than we know?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:12 am 
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Dingo wrote:
niman wrote:
Dingo wrote:
On a related note re India:

From what I have read, there are more similarities with the current pandemic swine flu and Spanish Flu, than either of the two later pandemics.

From memory, a nasty wave in India occurred at the same time as one in the USA during the Spanish Flu. India could be useful to watch.

Although the 2009 pandmeic is most like 1918, I am not sure about the geographic implications. High population density will help spread teh virus, but the finding of E627K may be due in part to monitoring and current H1N1 levels. The virus is adapting to generate a new wave, and early versions may appear in India, where there are significant levels of virus..


Your guess is that this monitoring just happened to pick it up there ie there's more out there/in different places/countries than we know?

Surveillance is abysmal (remember, reporters say the pandemic is OVER).

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:32 am 
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Quote:
E627K will be fixed by the next wave
Dr. Niman, by "the next wave", do you mean the one currently gathering itself to probably peak in May or like, perhaps, a further fall wave?


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:37 am 
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saraseer wrote:
Quote:
E627K will be fixed by the next wave
Dr. Niman, by "the next wave", do you mean the one currently gathering itself to probably peak in May or like, perhaps, a further fall wave?


Hey, don't forget the other half of the world down south entering autumn on the way to winter in the next few months. :)

All these mutations look pretty bad for us.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:45 am 
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saraseer wrote:
Quote:
E627K will be fixed by the next wave
Dr. Niman, by "the next wave", do you mean the one currently gathering itself to probably peak in May or like, perhaps, a further fall wave?

The 2010/2011 fall wave in the northern hemisphere.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:59 am 
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niman wrote:
stephensons wrote:
Quote:
I only get an empty page


The file is large (12MB) and about 25 pages long. It takes a while to load, just be patient. Looks interesting and will take a peak later.

The PB2 E627K Mutation Attenuates Viruses Containing the 2009
H1N1 Influenza Pandemic Polymerase

The paper is an artificial system that says little about pandemic H1N1. The finding that E627K reduces levels of the rescued reassortant, even though E627K is found in the patients in India indicates the experimental results are not applicable to pandemic H1N1.

Here is the key quote from the paper:

We show that in both A549 cell culture and in a mouse model of influenza infection, two of these
changes, PB2-E627K and –D701N, do not potentiate the replication or virulence of a virus
containing the 2009 pandemic RNP. Rather, both of these changes significantly impair the
replication of the virus and diminish the histopathological consequences of infection. Our
findings suggest that if the 2009 pandemic virus were to acquire these changes, greater virulence
would be an unlikely consequence.

I think a quick review of this paper and its use by the CDC to proclaim E627K (or D225G) as no problem, is useful. This paper did NOT compare 2009 H1N1 with E627K to 2009 H1N1 without E627K. Instead it used an experimental model that took the four genes in the ribo-nuclear protein complex (PB2, PB2, PA, NP) and put it on a seasonal H1N1 background from 2001. This allowed the RNP with and without E627K to be compared to other RNP's including high and low path H5N1 as well as 1918. In this system the other combinations behaved as expected (taking E627K away from 1918 reduced growth and pathology, while adding E627K to low path H5N1 increased growth and pathology). However, for pandmeic H1N1, the results went the other way - growth was reduced by E627K by 10 to 100 fold.

However, E627K in the patients infected with H1N1 indicate the model did NOT predict the clinical result, becasue a virus that was replication deficient by 10-100 fold would not be able to efficiently tranmit, and would not be found in three patients in the same area over a short time frame. Thus, the expermiental model was NOT predictive of the clinical results, but AFTER the 3 patients with E627K were announced, the CDC used the model to PREDICT that E627K won't be a problem.

Thus, the MODEL is CORRECT and REALITY is NOT!

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 10:38 am 
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wotan wrote:
Please don't mention Kansas and pandemic swine flu together. :)


:D okee dokee, but can I mention Kansas and 1918 Swine Flu together? Wasn't Kansas ground zero for the 1918 virus?

48 soldiers died at Fort Riley Kansas in the Spring of 1918. That is often sited as the place it all started. They were burning a bunch of pig manure on a dry, dusty, windy day. A few days later... dozens of soldiers started filing into the infirmary with flu.

(I think Kansas has been pissed off about Evolution ever since.)

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 10:40 am 
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littlebird wrote:
wotan wrote:
Please don't mention Kansas and pandemic swine flu together. :)


:D okee dokee, but can I mention Kansas and 1918 Swine Flu together? Wasn't Kansas ground zero for the 1918 virus?

48 soldiers died at Fort Riley Kansas in the Spring of 1918. That is often sited as the place it all started. They were burning a bunch of pig manure on a dry, dusty, windy day. A few days later... dozens of soldiers started filing into the infirmary with flu.

(I think Kansas has been pissed off about Evolution ever since.)



That's what I was getting at.... :)

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 17, 2010 11:31 am 
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Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:31 am
Posts: 156
Dingo wrote:
On a related note re India:

From what I have read, there are more similarities with the current pandemic swine flu and Spanish Flu, than either of the two later pandemics.

From memory, a nasty wave in India occurred at the same time as one in the USA during the Spanish Flu. India could be useful to watch.


BMJ. 2000 October 7; 321(7265): 852. PMCID: PMC1118673
Copyright © 2000, BMJ
Flu experts warn of need for pandemic plans
Susan Mayor
.......
Dr Stephen Schoenbaum of the Commonwealth Fund in New York warned: “New data from the 1918 pandemic showed the appalling impact in areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and India.” Of the estimated 30 million deaths, 17 million occurred in India, where there was a death rate of 30 per 100000 population, compared with 5 per 100000 in Europe and North America......
........


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