Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

CIDRAP version

links at bottom to the Times of India and to a 9/09 ProMed item

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu//cidrap/conte ... on-jw.html

Pandemic H1N1 mutation in India resembles Dutch findings

Lisa Schnirring * Staff Writer

Mar 16, 2010 (CIDRAP News) – Researchers from India's National Institute of Virology (NIV) yesterday announced that they detected a small mutation in pandemic H1N1 virus in samples from three patients, fueling speculation that it may be the same change that surfaced in two Dutch patients last fall.

Experts say if the two mutations are the same it doesn't appear to have much clinical significance, though the development is worth monitoring, because the change could theoretically enhance viral replication and virulence.

Indian researchers said the throat swab samples from the patients show a small mutation in the polymerase 2 (PB2), gene, the Times of India reported today. Dr A.C. Mishra, the NIV's director, said the virus was not resistant to oseltamivir (Tamiflu).

Dr Michael Shaw, associate director of the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Laboratory Science Influenza Division, told CIDRAP News that he doesn't have any more details on the Indian findings aside from the Times of India story. However, he said the researchers' description sounds like the E627K mutation that was first reported by a group from the Netherlands at the end of September.

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Once again the CDC is hanging its hat on NEGATIVE experimental data. Ferrets infected with H1N1 with D225G also did not appear unusual. However, in 1918/1919 two of five fatal HUMAN cases had D225G and in Ukraine 27/37 fatal HUMAN lung samples had D225G/N. Once again the CDC is using negative animal data to say to not believe your lyin' eyes with regard to dead H1N1 patients in 1918/1919 or 2009/2010.

Speaking of clusters, E627K is in ALL human seasonal flu since 1918.

The CDC/WHO formula is to set up an experiment to simulate natural influenza history and then use the negative experimental data to refute the natural history!
Influenza is ALL about politics.

I say we have gone this route before with the Ukranian situation. With Influenza it is always changing, so I think the change is worth monitoring, but I am with the others in the article. Keep and eye on it. What else can be done. Nothing.
The h1n1 started way before last April. Many have said it stared late 2008. The word is get vaccinated.

I don't know sutter, something tells me we're not in Kansas anymore...

You opened the door to this one, Dr. Niman.

If it's predictable, what is your best estimate for the NEXT leg of this evolution? I know it could probably branch in multiple directions, but which of those directions do you feel is a reasonable prediction?