Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

I'd just like to point out that the folks at the other FT site have looked at the same data and drawn the opposite conclusion. Hat tips to everyone and praise to Dr Nancy Cox of the CDC.

Same planet - different worlds.

Yes. DEFINITELY a parallel universe!

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I'm of the opinion that no matter what the leaders of the world try to do, or how advanced our knowledge gets, or how dedicated the medical researchers are, history is bound to repeat itself. D225G has either been allowed to find the cracks, or is just naturally evading the radar of those who have the power to stop it. I would like to think that Dr. Niman's thoughts and statements might have an impact on the overall outcome, and perhaps it will, but not with the current mindset of those in the know.

Actually, the D225G story is VERY clear, and the current mindset is wide open to attack. Random mutation nonsense only works when there is no data.

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Agreed.

Whether it's D225G or something else, pandemic history tells us that any future pandemic is likely to have an earlier mild wave(s) followed by lethal ones as the flu mutates.

For all the fancy technology we now have

1. Surveillance and testing is patchy at best

2. It's proven that resistance can mount very quickly to our frontline high tech anti-viral Tamiflu

3. We'll be using a flu vaccine for 2 years running (has this been done before?)

Take the three factors above, apply to a new pandemic and we're facing a nasty time in the next year or two. Add in the apparent foolishness of the gatekeepers WHO and CDC and we could be facing a calamity.

In the trivalent vaccine, each component doesn't change each season, but California/7 starts with 5 differences with most sequences, so it is a catestrophy waiting to happen, which may have already started.

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Yes, there is no indication of a new pandemic target in the works. The surveillance is scandalously poor and they are just waiting for something to happen. The program is reactive, and on a very delayed basis, which failed for the fall wave, and a new target picked in April will fail in 2010, just as it failed in 2009.

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Actually, the Ukraine data is more overwhelming that has been described thus far. The took milder cases and grew one series of 12 on mammalian cells and found one positive (D225G mixture with wild type) and took six others and grew virus in eggs and found no RBD chnages. Similarly, thye took positives by direct sequencing of autopsy material, and grew virus out on mammalian cells, and only one sample failed to pick up D225G (which was a mixture with wild type on direct sequencing).
Thus, the data created by direct sequencing was reproduced in lab grow virus, regardless of cell type used.
The culture issues just muddy teh waters of a VERY clear association of D225G/N with severe and fatal H1N1 cases.

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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03081 ... _Surv.html

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why should 225G,225D (H3) be frequent in mixtures but this is not
seen with other mutations, i.e. synonymous ones ?

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no patents on genes, publish the GISAID sequences !