Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

The place to discuss the flu
It is currently Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:04 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 46 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:46 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Dingo wrote:
niman wrote:
The first major problem is the selection of California/7. It has 5 differences or more with the vast majority of H1N1 isolates, becasue it represents a rare sub-clade. The antigenic characterization tests are relative insensitive, so the other isolates appear OK, but they are right at the brink of becoming a low reactor. Thus, a single change linked D225G or G158E creates a low reactor, which creates significant vaccine failure.

Moreover, the virus evolves away from the immunity generated in the first two waves, and in doing so, creates a more virulent strain (which likley has D225G/N), leading to more severe cases like the latest SARI cases.


Thanks.

Are you saying that California/7 wasn't a good choice in the first place (relatively rare), regardless of any subsequent mutations?

If so so, someone's made a real bad error and we are really facing this with no real vaccine.

Does this also explain why vaccine made from the 1918 flu works better against current swine flu than the California/7 based vaccine?

Yes and yes. California/7 was picked largely because it was one of the first isolates. At the time it wan't clear if it was unusual or not because several other isolates from California were similar, while other isolates were different. Over time it was clear that California/7 was in the minority, but the relatively insensitive assays indicated the two targets were immunologically close. However, because the assay is insensitive, it can give similar results for targets that have 5 differences.

However, these data are based on ferrets and in many cases titers are bordline.

Although a titer of 40 is the gold standard for protection, in animal studies a titer of 40 protected HALF of the animals vaccinated. Thus, a titer of 40 had a 50% FAILURE rate, so have a titer of 40 certain does not guarantee protection.

The 5 changes then provide the genetic background that leads to low reactor status with just ONE more change, so sequences with D225G are LOW REACTORS, which means you really need a titer of about 320 to begin to get to a safe zone, and most vaccinations do not produce titers that high, so low reactors cause vaccine failures.

In addition, a new wave will involve more changes that are selected for in patients who were infected last wave, so the vaccine quickly becomes useless (even if recommended by WHO, CDC, and whoever else went on record for a california/7-like target.

ALL currrent vaccines use California/7 as a target (with minor variations).

The differences in X-181A (target in most killed vaccines in US) with consensus:
S86P, N132D, K212T, Q226R, V324I

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:55 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 30, 2010 2:44 am
Posts: 926
niman wrote:

Yes and yes. California/7 was picked largely because it was one of the first isolates. At the time it wan't clear if it was unusual or not because several other isolates from California were similar, while other isolates were different. Over time it was clear that California/7 was in teh minority, but the relatively insensitive assays indicated the two targets were immunologically close. However, because the assay is insensitive, it can give similar results for targets that have 5 differences, However, these data are based on ferrets and in many cases titers are bordline.
Although a tite rof 40 is the gold standard for protection, in animal studies a titer of 40 protected HALF of the animals vaccinated. Thus, a titer had a 50% FAILURE rate, so have a titer of 40 certain does not guarantee protection.

The 5 chnages then provide the genetic background that leads to low reacor status with just ONE more change, so sequences with D225G are LOW REACTORS, which means you really need a titer of about 320 to begin to get to a safe zone, and most vaccinations do not produce titers that high, so low reactors cause vaccine failures.

In addition, a new wave will involve more chnages that are selected for in patients who were infected last wave, so teh vaccine quickly becomes useless (even if recommended by WHO, CDC, and whoever else went on record for a california/7-like inventor.

ALL currrent vaccines use California/7 as a target (with minor variations).

The differences in X-181A (target in most killed vaccines in US) with consensus:
S86P, N132D, K212T, Q226R, V324I


Thanks.

So perhaps by partly bad luck we had the wrong variant selected for the vaccine at the start, which is now at least 5 changes away from what's floating around out there.

In addition, we have the bulk of our anti-viral stockpiles in one anti-viral (Tamiflu) and it has recently been demonstrated that seasonal flu developed resistance to it very quickly and almost completely.

Now it appears that there are more mutations and there is developing Tamiflu resistance, which means that the current swine flu vaccine and most of our anti-viral stockpiles will be ineffective.

What a stuff up.

A potentially deadly stuff up.


Last edited by Dingo on Tue Mar 02, 2010 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Mar 01, 2010 11:47 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:39 pm
Posts: 95
To Dr. Niman. I have been watching your posts and you and your family have had vaccine. Are you not worried about yourself and your family. One daughter is in college, I think, not here that much. With the ILI in colleges going up and the prediction you are making, does that not concern you for your family and for all that got the vaccine. Does not the CDC watch over this with all their scientists?
Thank you for your time from a old timer in Texas. Appreciate your time and any response as I have the greatest respect for what you are doing.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 7:45 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
sutter58 wrote:
To Dr. Niman. I have been watching your posts and you and your family have had vaccine. Are you not worried about yourself and your family. One daughter is in college, I think, not here that much. With the ILI in colleges going up and the prediction you are making, does that not concern you for your family and for all that got the vaccine. Does not the CDC watch over this with all their scientists?
Thank you for your time from a old timer in Texas. Appreciate your time and any response as I have the greatest respect for what you are doing.

Yes, there is a definite cause for concern, which has been GROSSLY underplayed by agencies and the media. The parallels between 2009 and 1918 are striking and the fact that vaccine against 1918 is more effective than the vaccine against 2009 in mouse challenge experiments using the 2009 virus should be an eye opener.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 9:36 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03021 ... ilure.html

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:33 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Here is another link for the week 7 ECDC report. It seemed to stop working, so an alternative link to the same report was used in the commentary. However, that link appears to now also have problems

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities/sur ... erview.pdf

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:42 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Tweet of vaccine failure being carried in USA Today

http://specials.usatoday.com/h1n1%20flu/

and it went to #1 at newsnow in a heartbeat

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/F ... TSPeriod=0

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:52 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2009 5:21 am
Posts: 319
niman wrote:
Tweet of vaccine failure being carried in USA Today

http://specials.usatoday.com/h1n1%20flu/

and it went to #1 at newsnow in a heartbeat

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/F ... TSPeriod=0


It is very significant.
I imagine there are some annoyed people saying something to the effect of "Damn Niman and his meddling ways."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 10:59 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
zombie wrote:
niman wrote:
Tweet of vaccine failure being carried in USA Today

http://specials.usatoday.com/h1n1%20flu/

and it went to #1 at newsnow in a heartbeat

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Hot+Topics/F ... TSPeriod=0


It is very significant.
I imagine there are some annoyed people saying something to the effect of "Damn Niman and his meddling ways."

Yes and the commentaries might get the media focused on the real deal.

Newsnow and recombinomics have media followings.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Mar 02, 2010 11:49 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03021 ... evere.html

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 46 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot] and 31 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group