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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:03 pm 
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Tomorrow's CDC report will have 9 pediatric influenza deaths (6 in California), when there is no seasonal flu, and reported pandemic H1N1 is low.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtm ... d.htm#tab3

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:38 pm 
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Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02041 ... sions.html

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:00 pm 
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niman wrote:
The abuse and manipulation of testing and test results was widespread and virtually all countries knew how to game the system.


To me, the logical first step in preparing for a pandemic, would be to first define a pandemic, and secondly develop a standard operating procedure for collecting the data to support said definition.

In the face of H5N1 and on the recommendation of WHO, nations across the globe consumed unprecedented resources to plan and prepare for a pandemic. Communities across N. America implemented strategic plans, stock piled antivirals/antibiotics and kicked the tires on the ambulances. In turn they submitted report cards on their progress back to the states, who in turn reported back to the federal government, who in turn reported back to the WHO on what a wonderful job they all did and how everyone is so well prepared.

But...we still have schools, hospitals, towns, cities, states and countries that have no defined, unified procedure for gathering, interpreting or reporting the numbers of infections or deaths. It is impossible for the WHO or anyone to accurately report on or monitor the situation anywhere in the world because the data is gathered, interpreted and reported completely different everywhere.

This has been my biggest beef since day one, and it is closely related to the issues surrounding inaccurate testing.

I'll say it again, you can only manage what you measure, and if something is not being managed, then it's out of control.

Just my 2 cents for what it's worth.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:25 pm 
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Neuromedia -- Strong work on the Camus quote. Perfect timing.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:06 pm 
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MKey1 wrote:
Neuromedia -- Strong work on the Camus quote. Perfect timing.

There will be re-runs, as wave 3 begins to form.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:48 am 
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Of that, I am certain.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:30 am 
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Pandora wrote:
Of that, I am certain.

In North Carolina, the % positive is now up to 25% (se Figure 2 at link below), which is the highest it has been since November. The third wave has clearly started

http://www.epi.state.nc.us/epi/gcdc/flu0910.html

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:30 am 
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Quote:
In North Carolina, the % positive is now up to 25% (se Figure 2 at link below), which is the highest it has been since November. The third wave has clearly started


The same can be said for Florida. The current % positive is 25.9%, with only one sample being a strain other than pandemic H1N1. The percent positive reached a nadir about 4 weeks ago and has been trending upward ever since then. The overall number of tested samples remains very small, however it appears the next wave of flu may be beginning. The timing would be about right.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 9:27 am 
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Today's WER discusses H274Y. The report on Duke includes some additional demographic data, but fails to mention D225G and D225N, even though those sequences are now public

Of the 56 cases of oseltamivir-resistant viruses isolated
from severely immunocompromised patients, 12 are related
to 2 clusters within hospital wards. The first cluster
of 4 oseltamivir-resistant pandemic (H1N1) 2009
viruses emerged at Duke University Hospital in Durham,
North Carolina, United States.4 One male and 3 female
patients, ranging in age from 43 years to 67 years,
with severely immunocompromised status, were admitted
to the same ward. The onset of influenza illness
occurred in a 2-week period between mid-October and
early November. While 3 of the cases were fatal, the role
of H1N1 infection in contributing to the deaths is uncertain.
In 3 of the 4 cases, the H275Y mutation was
identified before oseltamivir was administered.

http://www.who.int/wer/2010/wer8506.pdf

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