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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 4:13 am 
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niman wrote:
niman wrote:
More ECDC quotables:

To date no connection between cases, suggestive of transmission, has been found and it seems that the appearance in various countries is more the result of routine sequencing rather than spread of the mutation. It is also unclear if the association with severe cases is coincidental or not, perhaps resulting from preferred sequencing of specimens and viruses from severe cases/deaths.

The above is yet another example of how a lack of testing is used to deny reality. A subsequent report out of Italy detailed transmission within a family,

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01171 ... uster.html

but for most of the cases there is EXTREMELY poor follow-up, so the lack of testing in contacts is used to claim the D225G or D225N is not transmiting.

These statements are not based on science. They are PURELY political.

This type of analysis creates the true FAKE pandemic.

Here is another death cluster, which also has likely involvement of D225G

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01131 ... racal.html

The recently released sequences from Duke also show transmission and the involvement of D225G and D225N.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01261 ... 225GN.html

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:49 am 
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Here are more WHO quotable quotes from their Dec 2 report on the Duke death cluster, which was subsequently shown to have 3 HA sequences with D225G and D225N:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu ... index.html
Three of the four cases were fatal, but the role of H1N1 infection in contributing to these deaths is uncertain.

All of the resistant viruses carried the same H275Y mutation, indicating resistance to oseltamivir but susceptibility to the second antiviral drug, zanamivir.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:49 am 
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niman wrote:
Here are more WHO quotable quotes from their Dec 2 report on the Duke death cluster, which was subsequently shown to have 3 HA sequences with D225G and D225N:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu ... index.html
Three of the four cases were fatal, but the role of H1N1 infection in contributing to these deaths is uncertain.

All of the resistant viruses carried the same H275Y mutation, indicating resistance to oseltamivir but susceptibility to the second antiviral drug, zanamivir.

It is also notable that all five sequences with H274Y also had HA Y233H, which is a rare marker and confirms that the H1N1 was transmitting H2H (or patient to patient).

Although this sequence data was just made public (by the CDC at GISAID), the samples were collected in mid-October, so it is VERY likely that WHO was WELL aware of the D225G and D225N in 3 of teh sequences when they put out the December 2 report, claimimng it was unceratin if the 3 fatalities were due to H1N1, and also when they put out the Dec 28 report and the WER follow-up on Jan 22 that D225G/N was NOT transmitting, and they claimed it was sporadic and did not pose a clinical threat (which they probably didn't mention to the families of the three dead patients).

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:03 am 
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So when you say that their comments are purely "political," may I ask what you believe their dominant goal is? Are they trying to downplay the magnitude of the situation to prevent a public panic? Are they trying to tune-out the relevant parts so they can stick with their scientific mantra concerning random mutations? Why is this political jargon so important to them?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:11 am 
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Pandora wrote:
So when you say that their comments are purely "political," may I ask what you believe their dominant goal is? Are they trying to downplay the magnitude of the situation to prevent a public panic? Are they trying to tune-out the relevant parts so they can stick with their scientific mantra concerning random mutations? Why is this political jargon so important to them?

The combination of H274Y with D225G/N in a fatal cluster is something that would cause great concern. To avoid alarm, or accusations of causing needless alarm, they just issue head pats and buy time (this approach has roots in the SARS outbreak, where WHO was criticized for causing undo alarm - with which most scientists would disagree).
There are also issues with random mutations, but the main focus is alarm.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 11:39 am 
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Aloud me to quote an excerpt of The Plague by Albert Camus.

The year is 1940 and the scene is Oran, Algeria by then a French colony:
[and the events are real !]

"The local press, so lavish of news about the rats, now had nothing to say.
For rats died in the street; men in their homes. And newspapers are concerned only with the street.
Meanwhile, government and municipal officials were putting their heads together.
So long as each individual doctor had come across only two or three cases, no one had thought of taking action.
But it was merely a matter of adding up the figures and, once this had been done, the total was startling.
In a very few days the number of cases had risen by leaps and bounds, and it became evident to all observers
of this strange malady that a real epidemic had set in.
This was the state of affairs when Castel, one of Rieux's colleagues and a much older man than he, came to see him.

"Naturally," he said to Rieux, "you know what it is."
"I'm waiting for the result of the post-mortems."
"Well, I know. And I don't need any post-mortems. I was in China for a good part of my career, and I saw
some cases in Paris twenty years ago. Only no one dared to call them by their name on that occasion.
The usual taboo, of course; the public mustn't be alarmed, that wouldn't do at all.
And then, as one of my colleagues said, 'It's unthinkable. Everyone knows it's ceased to appear in western Europe.'
Yes, everyone knew that—except the dead men.
Come now, Rieux, you know as well as I do what it is."
Rieux pondered. He was looking out of the window of his surgery, at the tall cliff that closed the half-circle of
the bay on the far horizon. Though blue, the sky had a dull sheen that was softening as the light declined."

--
"Yes, Castel," he replied. "It's hardly credible. But everything points to its being plague."
Castel got up and began walking toward the door.
"You know," the old doctor said, "what they're going to tell us? That it vanished from temperate countries
long ago."
" 'Vanished'? What does that word really mean?" Rieux shrugged his shoulders.
"Yes. And don't forget. Just under twenty years ago, in Paris too."
"Right. Let's hope it won't prove any worse this time than it did then. But really it's incredible."

[... ...]

The disease causing epidemic is quite different, but human reactions tend to remain!

(1) “The Plague”, Albert Camus, The Modern Library, New York, 1948.
Translation from French by Stuart Gilbert.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:04 pm 
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niman wrote:
The combination of H274Y with D225G/N in a fatal cluster is something that would cause great concern. To avoid alarm, or accusations of causing needless alarm, they just issue head pats and buy time (this approach has roots in the SARS outbreak, where WHO was criticized for causing undo alarm - with which most scientists would disagree).
There are also issues with random mutations, but the main focus is alarm.

I followed by Internet news and WHO reports the SARS 2003 outbreak, mainly in Honk Kong, Taiwan and Toronto.
A sizable fraction of the SARS victims was among hospitals medical care staff. It was really scary.
It was easily transmittable, and quite often fatal. This “emergent disease” required a hard effort to contain!
I did not follow the subsequent accusations against the WHO. The press was rather reticent, and WHO releases, quite realistic!
--------

Also on the 2003 SARS outbreak, here is an excerpt of a CDC team paper dated April 14, 2003:
Quote:
Control Measures for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan
[... ...]
The global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has proceeded with unprecedented speed, overwhelming many hospitals and some public health systems in a matter of weeks. As of April 14, 2003, a total of 3,169 cases had been reported from more than 20 countries. In many locations, the introduction of the disease by ill travelers has soon been followed by spread to healthcare workers and household contacts. In the most mature outbreaks, in Hong Kong and Hanoi, 46% and 63% of cases, respectively, were reported in healthcare workers, and hospital spread has also characterized the larger outbreaks in Singapore and Toronto (1,2).
[... ...]
Suggested citation for this article: Twu S-J, Chen T-J, Chen C-J, Olsen SJ, Lee L-T, Fisk T, et al.
Control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome

The description reflects the tense atmosphere, and the threat could not be underestimated!
It surprises me that scientists further criticized WHO releases, because SARS information was objective and relevant.


Last edited by neuromedia on Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:11 pm 
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Fascinating passage from the Camus novel. That one would be worth a read. Thanks, neuromedia.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:20 pm 
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neuromedia wrote:
niman wrote:
The combination of H274Y with D225G/N in a fatal cluster is something that would cause great concern. To avoid alarm, or accusations of causing needless alarm, they just issue head pats and buy time (this approach has roots in the SARS outbreak, where WHO was criticized for causing undo alarm - with which most scientists would disagree).
There are also issues with random mutations, but the main focus is alarm.

I followed by Internet news and WHO reports the SARS 2003 outbreak, mainly in Honk Kong, Taiwan and Toronto.
A sizable fraction of the SARS victims was among hospitals medical care staff. It was really scary.
It was easily transmittable, and quite often fatal. This “emergent disease” required a hard effort to contain!
I did not follow the subsequent accusations against the WHO. The press was rather reticent, and WHO releases, quite realistic!

After the outbreaks were contained there were complaints that less than 1000 died, but the economic impact was excessive relative to the deaths. Of course back then deaths and cases also required lab confirmation, and the actual number of cases and deaths were significantly higher.
Initially the CFR was very high in China so a large number of cases was added and the CFR dropped dramatically. Patients were hidden away in military hospitals and Taiwan actually broke the infected into lab confirmed and SARS-like (unconfirmed) cases. However, the SARS-like cases were obviously SARS CoV infected and the CFR for SARS-like was actually higher than SARS confirmed (but the deaths were not counted and the lower CFR was the official number).
The games that were played with SARS then came into play with H5N1, followed by pandemic H1N1.
The abuse and manipulation of testing and test results was widespread and virtually all countries knew how to game the system.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:36 pm 
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Fascinating, in a sadistic and irresponsible sense!

Thanks as well, Neuromedia, for that bit from The Plague. Very interesting.

History repeats itself too easily with humans.


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