Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

P&I deaths in the US have spiked to the highest levels since the peak of the 2008 flu season, in spite of a low number of reported H1N1 cases, raising concerns that the current H1N1 CFR is markedly higher than the fall

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarc ... igpi03.htm

It is worth noting that there was no seasonal influenza A detected last week. The % positive is slightly higher this week than earlier weeks and may signal a bottom for the fall wave and teh start of a winter wave. The early rise in P&I was associated with the fall wave. However, the latest spike is when reported cases of H1N1 are low (and seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 are at zero) which signals a more virulent H1N1.

It seems a little early to make this call, but your track record has been remarkably prescient. Other possibilities are RSV or just the normal time delays in reporting and categorizing fatalities.

If it is due to a more virulent H1N1, when do you suppose that the genetic sequences will be released?

I am a newbie and have been watching. I know here in Texas, we are having varied weather, which may make a difference, plus much RSV is in circulation. So I am not sure if that is accurate either. Do we know what age groups the Pneumonia deaths are in? That may be a clue. If we are dealing with the elderly, than it may be your answer to the slight increase. At one point I had read that Dr. Niman stated that if the deaths are in the elderly then it changes the situation? Please correct me if I am wrong. Just an observation.

P&I deaths are listed at the end of each weekly MMWR and there is an age breakdown for all deaths by age. I don't seen dramatic changes in newbornes (<1 age category)

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_wk/wk_cvol.html

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01291 ... k3_PI.html

The is about a two - three month lag in most sequences. So far one 2010 sequence has been released (in Russia with D225G). The Japan conversion of D225E to D225G was collected at the end of November and released today. The US death cluster at Duke happened in October, was announced in December and sequences were released this week.

I doubt that the diffeence in cases and P&I is due to a delay. When cases rose in the fall, the P&I went up at the same time. The P&I fell slightly or remained even formseveral weeeks, falling below the epidemic threshold, and this week it spiked higher.
Pediatic deaths definitely lag, but I don't think cases do.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

According to CDC, who I know no one trusts, says the P&I is due to elderly people dying. So how could we clarify that?

You have to look at qualifiers. They used "thought to be" as in hopes and dreams.

Well, we need to see who are the qualifiers, I guess, before we make any type of assumption, whether it is CDC or anyone else