Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

Mill Hill has just relased 32 HA sequences at GISAID. 28 were from Ukraine and all were from autopsy lung. These were collected between the end of October through mid-November. 10 of the Ukraine samples had D225G and D225N. Three had D225N and one was mixed for D225N. Four has D225G and three more were mixed for D225G. Thus, 21/28 had D225G, D225N, or both.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Paired samples from Kathmadu had D225G (as a mixture) in nasal sample, but change was absent in the throat sample (H1N1 was in thrtoat sample but had wild type RBD).

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Ukraine samples were from many locations and represented several sub-clades. The sub-clades were dominated by samples with 225 changes, but had samples with wild type RBD, further supporting recombination.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01251 ... pread.html

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

You were right, no surprise there, and I have a few questions. In your latest commentary you state:

Earlier 22 sequences were released, from patients that were not likely to be fatal, and only one had D225G (as a mixture).

Sequences with D225G or D225N
Probably not fatal 1 of 22
Autopsy 21 of 28

Have you calculated from those sequences a comparison of the fatality rates? Please correct me if I am wrong, but does this mean that out of 50 cases, 21 were fatal and out of those 75% had a change at D225?

Also, of the 50 cases, if 22 had either D225G or D225N, and thus 21 of 22 cases proved fatal? That's approaching 100%, correct? Have we ever seen anything like it?

I hate all the recent news about how this pandemic is already over, people have let down their guard, forgetting already that the 1918 pandemic was also mild at first and stretched into 1920.

Prior to this series there were 8 fatal, all with D225G, D225N, or both. Thus, there now have been 30 cases in Ukraine with one or more position 225 changes and 29 have been fatal.

In addition, of the 37 fatal cases in Ukraine, 29 have D225G/N.

The high rate may be related to sample source (lung samples from mild cases are not tested), but 29/30 positives is clearly cause for concern.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

quote]Prior to this series there were 8 fatal, all with D225G, D225N, or both. Thus, there now have been 30 cases in Ukraine with one or more position 225 changes and 29 have been fatal.

In addition, of the 37 fatal cases in Ukraine, 29 have D225G/N.

The high rate may be related to sample source (lung samples from mild cases are not tested), but 29/30 positives is clearly cause for concern.[/quote]

I understand, though I am concerned that though these changes at D225 are considered relatively rare (so far), such a high percentage of fatal cases had changes to G or N vs the wild type with no mix.

If changes to D225 are as rare as health authorities would have us believe, then we're dealing with an especially virulent virus that's not taking many hostages.

I have read many many articles regarding this pandemic and actually all the articles are saying just the opposite. That there will more than likely be a third wave and we are not done with this pandemic yet and to get vaccinated. The CDC especially has been pushing this. Yes, people are not taking it as seriously as it has died down, but people are still getting vaccinated. So IMO and from what I have read from many scientists is they are comparing this more to 1957 pandemic. The 225 G component has been around since April and with the millions of people in Ukraine and only a small portion of deaths, I think it is fair to say we are on the same track as we were on when it was severe here in the US. I have searched everywhere for info on Ukraine and their deaths from flu and there is nothing to be found. The little I found was due to the Children having so much virus. Plus remember, they have no vaccine, and the weather is horrible. Lots to look at here .
IMO

I understand, though I am concerned that though these changes at D225 are considered relatively rare (so far), such a high percentage of fatal cases had changes to G or N vs the wild type with no mix.

If changes to D225 are as rare as health authorities would have us believe, then we're dealing with an especially virulent virus that's not taking many hostages.[/quote]
The CFR in western Ukraine has gone up 4 fold this month. The frequency of D225G/N in the next wave may be significantly higher than previous waves.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman

The problem is the strong possibility sequences with position 225 chnages will become dominant. Reports continue to increase worldwide.
WHO issued its report BEFORE the sequence were released. WHO reported 26 instances of D225G in fatal cases. In the latest series D225G/N was in 21 fatal cases from Ukraine alone and when added to the 8 earlier, Ukraine has more than the rest of the world combined, and that is just through mid November.

You can pretty much gauge the seriousness of the situation by the number of head pats put out by WHO.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman