Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

...D225G/N is an example. In Ukraine there were 11 HA sequences from western Ukraine. 5 were from survivors and all had wild type. Six died and the HA was the same subclade as the survivors, but 4 fatal cases had D225G and 2 had D225N. Thus, 6 of 6 fatal cases had D225G/N even though the frequency of D225G/N is only about 1% in the pandemic HA sequences. 6/6 is in the "beyond statistics" category....

Well, the math is relatively easy because it's the upper limit, that perfect score.

The chance of it being "wild" on the 5 non-lethal cases is very high...
.99^5 = .95
You pick just five, 19 out of 20 times, it would be all "wild".

But, since there were also 6 lethal cases with D225G/N things get interesting...
.01^6 = 10^(-12) = 1/Trillion = one out of every trillion times you try it

So, the chance is a little less (95%) than one in a Trillion that it would happen by random chance. If 50 such chances came up per year, you'd have to wait about 20 billion years to see it happen, longer than the age of the Universe.


Of course, there could be other reasons it's non-random, but predicting the experiment ahead of time is boss until some other theory does better.

ahh, another example instead of a percentage.
And another avoiding of "so often answered questions".

Compare the ratio of "jumpers" with databases from organisms with
known recombination. Compare with randomly mutated databases.

Your impression is wrong. Sequences come out daily, but most have a significant delay. The Mexican swine sequence was delayed an unusually long time. That infection was in April and is supposed to be followed by a few days with an "immediate" report that has preliminary data. The "immediate" report on the April outbreak was filed in December and the sequence soon followed (with the tandem mixed polymorphisms closing for D225N and D225G). The sequences for Utah and Sweden are from the late summer and represent a common time delay. The two human sequences from Mexico were from the end of Octiber / beginning of November, and those sequence came out quickly.
The point is that the sequence release times are what they are so the fact that all 5 sequences with D225N/G came out this month is significant. Thus, a month ago there were no public sequences of a host with both changes, and now there are five, represnting a dramatic increase. However, the level is likely to be too low to crreate a clear difference in fatalities, although the reported fatalities in the fall were markedly higher than the spring.
Thus, your "at least one" hypothesis is incorrect. The increase in D225G/N sets the stage for a dramatic rise in the level in teh next phase after most of the older wild type is eliminated by selection (this isn't Kansas).

Actually as of late deaths have been in decline in all the places you mentioned. Should be pretty obvious why there are more deaths now than last spring though.

> WHO's reliance on consultants who try to use random mutation
> to explain these examples of 100% case fatality rates in multiple
> countries is cause for increasing concern

there are no other consultants