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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:06 pm 
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From my understanding, it appears that the currect batch of vaccines CANNOT effectively provide immunity against D225G, although it can provide immunity against other polymorphisms of the swine flu virus. "They" apparently thought that it would when they selected the vaccine target but, whoops!, it won't.

Not a surprise, there. The WHO and/or CDC have been a bit too cagey on that issue. "We believe that the vaccine will effectively provide immunity against D225G (not "it will certainly definitely"). Or, they frequently used their favorite obfuscation phrase, "we have no evidence that it won't blah blah blah".

That's why last Tuesday I started thinking, after receiving Dr. Niman's response to my vaccine thread question, "Which vaccines target 225G?", about the implications of the vaccine not providing immunity against D225G.

To me, it's not altogether bad. In fact, there may be some good to come out of this once it becomes widely known out there, at least in the medical community.

First of all, while D225G may not be killed off by the vaccine, it will effectively deal with some other nasty occurrences of swine flu. Please note that viruses whose sequences do not include D225G have killed off a good many people. So anyone who says that they won't get the vaccine because it can't effectively deal with D225G is saying that they will expose themselves to the risk of death due to some other aspect of the virus. I can't understand that logic.

Second, as Dr. Niman has written above, wild type will be killed off by the vaccine allowing our immune system to focus upon D225G.

Third, getting the current vaccine formulation will allow doctors to better diagnose a D225G type event. If you present flu symptoms and have already received the vaccine long enough ago so that it's immunity should be effective, doctors will be able to recognize the likelihood that you may have swine flu with D225G. That diagnosis advantage may save your life as doctors may be able to more readily design an appropriate (and immediate) treatment plan.

And let us not forget that antivirals are still to this date effective, Relenza 100% and Tamiflu almost 100%.

So it's not a disaster of epic proportions. Next year's vaccine target will include D225G. And maybe this thing will be dealt with globally and not locally with universal vaccination now that the threat will become more apparent.


Last edited by andre10056 on Fri Nov 27, 2009 3:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:13 pm 
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Joined: Fri Nov 13, 2009 4:17 pm
Posts: 322
hman wrote:
Please stop repeating the usual vaccine conspiracy theories, or move to conspiracy theories.This could be a nice scientific forum without whackadoodling, panicking on unproved predictions and seeing conspiracies in everything...

The problem with flu vaccines was always a mutating virus. Thats why they have to design a new vaccine each year. They haven't designed a vaccine for D225G because it was not the dominant strain back then. And as Dr Niman has correctly written: 'Earlier studies on vaccine target clones, which indicated D225G produce no difference in titer....' so it seemed the vaccine is working anyway.

You need to read more carefully. We now have conflicting study.

And I have not ever publicly commented on my vaccine BELIEFS based on the fact that it draws YOU whackadoodles out of the woodworks, and I prefer not to deal with it. Whackadoodlery works both ways, the most identifying trait being the stuborn, closeminded and obsessive latching on to EITHER side of the position - especially in the face of FACTS.

PS... when it comes to making "unproved predictions" - I'm often "Luckier" than even Niman. I was villified 4 weeks ago for stating that we'd had major "Unproven" changes in the Ukranian sequnces. I was villified at the same time for suggesting the vaccine might have drifted away from the changes. NOW we're seeing all of this come to pass. I was villified when I was doing press releases in 2003 proclaiming H5N1 as an emerging threat. I'll stop with that - but I asurre you the list goes on.

WHACKADOODLEDOOOOO to you sir!


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:25 pm 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:42 am
Posts: 56044
Location: Pittsburgh, PA USA
Cascadians wrote:
Your commentaries are very helpful.

For a bottom line dummie understanding, I think I need a remedial virology course. Will look for something online. Maybe iTunes U has one. Last night went over this thread with my partner who is well educated, current and frontline + managerial/admin high level healthcare and she doesn't understand it either.

Briefly, when new isolates are identified they are tested against reference anti-sera and the Ukraine isolate gave reduced activity, indicating it was evolving away from the vaccine. The only change in the Ukraine sequence is D225G indicating that change reduces titers. However, other fatal cases do not have D225G and of course wild type has D225, so vaccination is still indicated.

_________________
www.twitter.com/hniman


Last edited by niman on Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:37 pm 
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niman wrote:
Briefly, when new isolates are identified they are tested against reference anti-sera and the Ukraine isolate gave reduced activity, indicating it was evolving away from the vaccine. The only change in the Ukraine sequence is D225G indicating that change reduces titers. However, other fatal cases do not have D225G and of course wild type has D225G, so vaccination is still indicated.

I'm going back into my shell on vaccination commentary, yet stand by everthing I have recently stated 110%. I will now return to asking some clarifying questions:

Will current vaccination campaign contribute in any way to place H225G as the predominant strain? If so, or if not, Why / How?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:49 pm 
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Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 12:00 pm
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:scratch: Doesn't D225G attack the lungs immediately?? I thought I read that here on the board last week?? Forgive me if I am wrong.

If I am correct with that, and if D225G was discovered last spring, and widely known from the 1918 pandemic to destroy the lungs so quickly~ personally, I can't see WHY the red flags of this were not heeded before vaccine production.

BTW~ Hman

I don't see anything on this thread which is conspiracy.....I see people asking very valid questions~ big difference.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 12:52 pm 
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Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:57 pm
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niman wrote:
Briefly, when new isolates are identified they are tested against reference anti-sera and the Ukraine isolate gave reduced activity, indicating it was evolving away from the vaccine. The only change in the Ukraine sequence is D225G indicating that change reduces titers. However, other fatal cases do not have D225G and of course wild type has D225G, so vaccination is still indicated.


Thank you Dr Niman, very clear helpful info. We are so fortunate to have you.

I was worried that my vaccination would make me MORE vulnerable but that does not seem to be the case at this time.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:04 pm 
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Joined: Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:03 pm
Posts: 78
Dr. Niman if this is a low reactor how do we explain this?

All pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viruses analysed to date were antigenically and genetically closely related to the vaccine virus A/California/7/2009.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory27_11_2009/en/index.html


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:11 pm 
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pw123 wrote:
Dr. Niman if this is a low reactor how do we explain this?

All pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viruses analysed to date were antigenically and genetically closely related to the vaccine virus A/California/7/2009.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory27_11_2009/en/index.html


More to the point, given the quote above, how does the WHO explain this?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Three hundred forty-seven (99.7%) of 348 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses tested are related to the A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) reference virus selected by WHO as the 2009 H1N1 vaccine virus and one virus (0.3%) tested showed reduced titers with antisera produced against A/California/07/2009

====
Totals above between 1st September and 14th November


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:16 pm 
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pw123 wrote:
All pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza viruses analysed to date were antigenically and genetically closely related to the vaccine virus A/California/7/2009.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory27_11_2009/en/index.html

Consider the evolution of the descriptive language. Doesn't say "Match" anymore, does it? Doesn't even say "Close Match" to the vaccine. Says it is closely related, which it is. We've seen one change they are discussing - D225G. Related vs. match are two totally and distinctly different words.

I've STUDIED the WHO & the CDC for 5 years, even more than I have studied the virus's. Talk about "stable and predictive", you won't find a better example than these 2 groups. You have to know how to read the language they use, and the timing of press releases, and look at the new information tidbits they release on relation to other aspects. I assure you that clear trends will emerge. Then you have to place it all in the context of politics, because I assure you that this is a political animal you are dealing with.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:50 pm 
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Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:42 pm
Posts: 1533
Location: Northern California
I am so confused. Was the D225g not present until Ukraine or has it been here since April and no one ever saw it? With the D225G, now since people have been vaccinated, and I am sorry I do not get this part, this is worse or better? I read some of the Andres dialogue I guess you still should get the vaccine or is it going to make you more vunerable? So, does anyone know the percentage of the US that has had this 225g or a close proximity as out of the millions that have had this virus have the 225g? At this point, what do we do, I have already had swine flu, so I can get it again worse and die?
I am sorry some of this is way over lay peoples head and I think if we throw out this whole mutation thing plus the vaccine not matching, we need to have this put in laymans term to help all of us out. At this time, it seems it is slowing the US but in Europe is gaining speed, are we next and when do you think the next explosion will be, january?

HELP!!!!!!!!!!!


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