Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

The release of the sequences from Ukraine painted a clear picture of the spread of D225G. The four fatalities all had D225G, but the upper respiratory tact samples indicated that the same virus was widespread, but D225G was not present in the upper respirtaory tract isolates. However, the NA sequences demontrated that all 9 samples from western Ukraine belong to the same subclade, which matched the first fatality in Norway. Media reports described 3 patients in Norway who had D225G, but recently released sequnces identified another isolate with D225G which was a coinfection with a sequence that had 225D. This mixed infection also was into the sub-clade, indocating that the subclde in Norway was similar to the subclade in Norway (samples collected from lower respiratory tract had D225G, which this from the upper respiratory tract did).

Phylogenetic analysis showed that this subclade was widespread and expanding its geographical reach.

Here is a series of isolates with an NA sequence that matches the Ukraine/Norway subclade:

gb|CY052000.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3364-2/2009(H1N1))... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY051983.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1761/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY051968.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1751/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY051965.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1748/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY051959.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1702/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY051950.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1687/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|GU211245.1| Influenza A virus (A/Tomsk/02/2009(H1N1)) segm... 38.2 0.19
gb|GU211237.1| Influenza A virus (A/Omsk/02/2009(H1N1)) segme... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY049573.1| Influenza A virus (A/Singapore/ON1156/2009(H1N... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY049714.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1501/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY049040.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1402/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|GU134728.1| Influenza A virus (A/Italy/175/2009(H1N1)) seg... 38.2 0.19
gb|GU134716.1| Influenza A virus (A/Italy/163/2009(H1N1)) seg... 38.2 0.19
gb|GU123923.1| Influenza A virus (A/Italy/156/2009(H1N1)) seg... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047276.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1268/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047273.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1267/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047180.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1181/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047177.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1179/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047162.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1162/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047148.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1137/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047119.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1096/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY047087.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/NS2045/2009(H1N... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ894831.1| Influenza A virus (A/Rhode Island/08/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ527169.1| Influenza A virus (A/Omsk/01/2009(H1N1)) segme... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY044999.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3828/2009(H1N1))... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ505855.1| Influenza A virus (A/Irkutsk/02/2009(H1N1)) se... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ485658.1| Influenza A virus (A/Ekaterinburg/01/2009(H1N1... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY044082.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3715/2009(H1N1))... 38.2 0.19
gb|CY044074.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3702/2009(H1N1))... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ375286.1| Influenza A virus (A/Moscow/03/2009(H1N1)) seg... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ365366.1| Influenza A virus (A/Stockholm/36/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ359766.1| Influenza A virus (A/Stockholm/31/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ253504.2| Influenza A virus (A/Shanghai/71T/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ250162.1| Influenza A virus (A/Guangdong/03/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ247727.1| Influenza A virus (A/Moscow/IIV02/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ232087.1| Influenza A virus (A/Guangdong/02/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19
gb|GQ223436.1| Influenza A virus (A/Guangdong/05/2009(H1N1)) ... 38.2 0.19

Commentary

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11270 ... G_WWT.html

HA travel log

gb|CY052014.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/4021/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY052013.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/4020/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY052012.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3855/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY052006.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3440/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY052004.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3371/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY052003.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3370/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051998.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3364-2/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051994.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/3278/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051989.1| Influenza A virus (A/Norway/2924/2009(H1N1)) s... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051982.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1761/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051967.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1751/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051964.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1748/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051949.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1687/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|GU211235.1| Influenza A virus (A/Omsk/02/2009(H1N1)) segme... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY050846.1| Influenza A virus (A/Ulaanbaatar/6133/2009(H1N... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY050845.1| Influenza A virus (A/Ulaanbaatar/6266/2009(H1N... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051807.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/4870/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY051783.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/4844/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049963.1| Influenza A virus (A/Santo Domingo/WR1059N/200... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049955.1| Influenza A virus (A/Santo Domingo/WR1058N/200... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049947.1| Influenza A virus (A/Santo Domingo/WR1057N/200... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049571.1| Influenza A virus (A/Singapore/ON1156/2009(H1N... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049068.1| Influenza A virus (A/Singapore/ON129/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530489.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/NU-1/2009(H1N1)... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530487.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-42/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530486.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-41/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530485.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-40/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530484.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-39/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530483.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-38/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530482.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-36/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530481.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-35/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530480.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-34/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530479.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-33/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530478.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-32/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530477.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-31/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530476.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-29/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530475.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-28/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530474.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-27/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530473.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-26/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530472.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-25/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530471.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-22/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530470.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-18/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530469.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-17/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530468.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-16/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530466.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-14/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530465.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-13/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530464.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-12/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530463.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-11/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
dbj|AB530462.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/HA-10/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049713.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1501/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY049039.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1402/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|GU117765.1| Influenza A virus (A/Nagasaki/I01/2009(H1N1)) ... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047275.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1268/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047272.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1267/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047179.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1181/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047176.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1179/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047161.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1162/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY047118.1| Influenza A virus (A/Catalonia/S1096/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|GU014750.1| Influenza A virus (A/Hiroshima/201/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ894911.1| Influenza A virus (A/Oregon/20/2009(H1N1)) seg... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ894830.1| Influenza A virus (A/Rhode Island/08/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY046065.1| Influenza A virus (A/Italy/132/2009(H1N1)) seg... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY046062.1| Influenza A virus (A/Italy/129/2009(H1N1)) seg... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ527165.1| Influenza A virus (A/Singapore/TLL51/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY044997.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3828/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ484355.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Kansas/77778/2007(H... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY044080.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3715/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY044072.1| Influenza A virus (A/New York/3702/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY042320.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00445/2... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY042316.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00444/2... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY042312.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Illinois/Sg-00443/2... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ414768.1| Influenza A virus (A/Sao Paulo/43812/2009(H1N1... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ377095.1| Influenza A virus (A/California/24/2009(H1N1))... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ359765.1| Influenza A virus (A/Stockholm/31/2009(H1N1)) ... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ292961.1| Influenza A virus (A/Mexico City/22/2009(H1N1)... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ229373.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Hong Kong/1110/2006... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ229365.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Hong Kong/NS623/200... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ229333.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Hong Kong/1562/2005... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ229269.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/Hong Kong/915/2004(... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ232085.1| Influenza A virus (A/Guangdong/02/2009(H1N1)) ... 46.1 0.002
gb|GQ223435.1| Influenza A virus (A/Guangdong/05/2009(H1N1)) ... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040603.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4871... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040602.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4775... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040601.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4509... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040600.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4488... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040599.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4427... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040595.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/9856... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040594.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4511... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040593.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4488... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040592.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4452... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040591.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4350... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040586.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/1286... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040578.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4257... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040576.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/3876... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040573.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/2629... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040571.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/1286... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040569.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/3456... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040565.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4613... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040563.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/4390... 46.1 0.002
gb|CY040561.1| Influenza A virus (A/swine/North Carolina/2812... 46.1 0.002

Thanks Niman for that commentary

Well the cats out of the bag now. Link that H225G mutation with H274Y and its a perfect storm. Lets hope this virus finds this as a the perfect match to spread effectively and not recombine with H5N1. If it did it wouldnt spread very well as it would die too quick. Hope the virus knows what its doing. !!!

Hope that D225G vaccine is in production.

My earlier hypothesis that the vaccine manufacturers were not meeting manufacturing quotas due to switching gears, and starting from scratch with a new seed strain doesn't look as far fetched now. Of course we can't prove that they've actually made the intelligent decision to do this yet - and yes, it would have been the intelligent decision to stop making a vaccine that doesn't target a more lethal development, and actually looks to be helping D225G "gain market share" so to speak. So the question remains... what are the vaccine manufacturers / WHO / CDC actually doing about this new development. We can only assume that they have known about this long before we've gotten the information. Have they started swtiching out the seed strains for the vaccine??

TMV

You would hope so. Maybe that GSK batch that went bad is the new clone. im sure they are on to it. We are the second last to know. The last being 99.9% of the population.

Thank you for the commentary, Dr. Niman.

By more surveillance of lower respiratory, do you mean via autopsy, or has/can an effective test be developed to acquire live samples?

Well, I was about to start questioning my hypothesis about now, because while production still seems incredibly low - it hasn't come to a stand still. And yet this new information makes me step back and look at this through the eyes of the WHO/CDC/Vaccine makers....

Let's assume they've known about this for several weeks to a month. How are they thinking? They've got all their credibility + a Lot of money riding on the fact that they've put all their eggs in this vaccine basket. They've got production running now, got a LOT of unused vaccine still not in peoples arms yet.... What do they do?

If they keep pushing what they have out the door, and this is actually helping the new strain become dominant - they look very bad when this information comes out. And yet - they do tend to live in an "Ivory Tower World", and since they have the media firmly snuggled in their pocket, they might actually think they can get away with it. My guess is that they are dumping vaccine slowly to give appearance of steady but slow manufacturing, and they've made the seed strain change and are in process of switching gears.

And is it my imagination, or have 3rd world countries been getting more shipments lately? And I'll tell you this... U.S. available vaccine numbers absolutely do not match with reviews of local stories.

I'm really really trying hard not to to cross over into the conspiracy theorist camp..... but they aren't making it easy. The WHO & CDC's actions / inactions / disinformation campaigns, etc really are feeding the fires for this sort of thing.

I am afraid that part of the problem is that they have just lied & manipulated themselves right into a corner, and don't see any way out of the mess. They've tried to control panic by manipulation. Now they are going to reap worse than just mere panic, they will reap outrage & fury as well.

TMV

I see where you are coming from. All those recent vaccine donations !!!

Its plausible and totally possible. The vaccine makers rely on the virus changing so they can make a new batch and new millions as the old lot is thrown out. Why do you think GSK forced Relenza into a small corner by not marketing it. ( Biota took GSK to court over it) they were worried that antiviral would take vaccine market share. They even shelved IV Relenza after successful trials.

Thats were the real bucks are. Vaccines.

TMV I love how your brain works. Lets keep them honest without falling into the darkside.(WADers)