Rhiza Labs FluTracker Forum

So here we go. The CDC continues to update information piecemeal. From the situation report we have updated hospitalizations and fatalities. Remember, this is since August 20th.

Hospitalizations: 22,364
Deaths:877

These are all lab confirmed.

Last week's numbers were never posted in the FluView thread it seems, and the old situation report is not available yet. So two weeks ago the confirmed numbers stood at:

Hospitalizations: 8,204
Deaths: 411.

In two weeks a near trippling of confirmed hospitalizations and doubling of confirmed deaths.

MSNBC has reported that wek 44 will have 35 lab confirmed pediatric deaths. The pediatric deaths lag significantly, so these historically high pediatric deaths will continue for some time.

MSNBC keeps talking about the record report of 35 pediatric fatalities as some kind of peak (based on a reduction overall), but the pediayric deaths have a VERY significant lag. Last week many of teh cases added died in the summer. Media reports have already described the fatalities which are NOT yet in the table, so there are two lags, one is the lag between infection and death an dthe other is between death and entry into the table. I suspect many of the 35 deaths are from August and Sepember.

The highlighted section seems to corroborate a report out of Ft. Bend County, Texas, that there had been a seasonal flu death. This is the only seasonal pediatric flu death reported in the US since April 30th.

Lab confirmed pediatic deaths

http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchive ... /IPD44.htm

The week 44 report includes one newly added case from last year during flu season. Are you sure that the influenza B case above is not that case (pediatric deaths lag significatly, as seen in the color coding of the new cases).

It's possible. There was a post in the Texas thread last night that indicated a new seasonal flu death had been reported in Ft. Bend County. I will try to look into it later.

Here's an interesting excerpt from the CDC Press Report on Nov. 12th 2009.

Anne Schuchat: these estimates will give a single number and then a range, a lower and upper estimate around each number. And I want to tell everyone who is rapidly taking notes that the numbers I’m going to give you are under the CDC website under media information place. So for April through October 17th, we estimate the 22 million people have become ill from pandemic influenza. We estimate 98,000 people have been hospitalized so far through October 17th. And the upper and lower estimates on hospitalizations are from 63,000 to 153,000. We estimate that 3,900 people have died so far in the first six months of the pandemic from this virus. And the estimates there are from 2,500 up through 6,100 people having died so far. We’ve been talking a lot about this pandemic being a younger person’s disease, that it's disproportionately affecting children and young adults and relatively sparing the elderly, very different from seasonal flu. So I also want to give you some estimates for cases, hospitalizations and deaths for different age groups. So in children under 18, we estimate 8 million children have been ill with influenza, 36,000 hospitalized, and 540 children have died from this pandemic influenza. In the first six months of the pandemic for adults 18 to 64 years of age, we estimate 12 million cases, 53,000 hospitalizations, and 2900 deaths. For people 65 and over, we estimate about 2 million cases, 9,000 hospitalizations and about 440 deaths. That’s a lot of numbers. Again, I remind thank you we've posted those numbers on our website so you can look in more detail.

Reporter: Thank you for taking my question. MMWR, CDC editorial talks about the numbers reported between August 31st through the end of October and talks about flu activity being substantially above historic levels and talks about higher than its peak any season since recordkeeping began. Can you put this in perspective? What do historical levels mean here?

Anne Schuchat: We've been tracking influenza for decades. We have some systems that go back to 1958. Others of our systems are newer. What we are seeing in 2009 is unprecedented. To have very high rates of influenza-like illness in September and October is extremely unusual.

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t091112.htm

Thirty-five influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to CDC during week 44 (Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas [2], California [8], Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan [2], Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio [2], Oklahoma [3], Tennessee [2], Texas [6], Utah, Virginia, and Washington). Twenty-six of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, eight were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype is undetermined, and one was associated with an influenza B virus infection. These deaths occurred between March 15 and November 7, 2009.

Three deaths reported during week 44, including the death associated with influenza B virus infection, occurred during the 2008-09 season, bringing the total number of reported pediatric deaths occurring during that season to 127.

Since August 30, 2009, CDC has received 117 reports of influenza-associated pediatric deaths that occurred during the current influenza season (18 deaths in children less than 2 years old, 12 deaths in children 2-4 years old, 41 deaths in children 5-11 years old, and 46 deaths in children 12-17 years old). Ninety-eight (84%)of the 117 deaths were due to 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infections, and the remaining 19 were associated with influenza A virus for which the subtype is undetermined. A total of 156 deaths in children associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection have been reported to CDC.

Among the 117 deaths in children, 65 children had specimens collected for bacterial culture from normally sterile sites and 18 (27.7%) of the 65 were positive; Staphylococcus aureus was identified in eight (44.4%) of the 18 children. One S. aureus isolate was sensitive to methicillin, six were methicillin resistant, and one did not have sensitivity testing performed. Thirteen (72.2%) of the 18 children with bacterial coinfections were five years of age or older, and five (27.8%) of the 18 children were 12 years of age or older.


Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza-Associated Pediatric Deaths by Date and Type/Subtype of Influenza.

Date 2009 H1N1 Influenza Influenza A-Subtype Unknown Seasonal Flu Total
Number of Deaths REPORTED for Current Week – Week 44 (Week ending November 7, 2009) 26 8 1 35
Number of Deaths OCCURRED Since August 30, 2009 98 19 0 117
Number of Deaths OCCURRED since April 26, 2009 156 22 1 179

http://cdc.gov/flu/weekly/